Generic Virus Thread

[markavfc40]

The thing that just occurred to me is that I know this mainly severely affects older people and those with underlying conditions but I'd imagine younger usually healthy people are getting this and having severe symptoms, going into hospital and due to ICU care recovering. It is when all those ICU beds are being taken up that we may see younger/usually healthy people dying. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by markavfc40

[Vive_La_Villa]

5 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

The thing that just occurred to me is that I know this mainly severely affects older people and those with underlying conditions but I'd imagine younger usually healthy people are getting this and having severe symptoms, going into hospital and due to ICU care recovering. It is when all those ICU beds are being taken up that we may see younger/usually healthy people dying. 

Has this been happening though? 

[KenjiOgiwara]

22 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I think it's important that people keep their perspective on this. China\South Korea\Germany\Scandinavia are showing how best to deal with this and it doesn't need to be like it has been in Italy. Three things have got me slightly hopeful.

1) The number of confirmed 'healthy' will be vastly under reported. I.e. in most countries who have now stopped testing people if they are of sound health there will be huge swathes of people who have had it and are now getting healthy. In example in Denmark I see some health professionals are saying that as many as 90k people have had or has the virus. They only have 4 reported deaths. Reported casualties will be a much safer number as a death is always reported to the health officials.

2) It's springtime. The virus is struggling a lot in areas where the average temperatures are higher. With some luck the colder parts of the world can ride this out until the temperatures are on our side and the structure and integrity of the virus reduces.

3) There's a really inspiring collective drive in our communities which warms my heart. We've got whatsapp and messenger groups going where I live where people are reaching out to those affected and offering to help out with everything from pets to buying shopping. With the way our society has been cooling as of late with our #¤"#¤ politicians it's great to see that people are still considerate and helpful.

Remember that panic spreads quicker than the virus. Keep safe and collected, help where you can and consider your daily routines and how they can affect the people who will be affected by this. 

Agreed. I think Norway will need a lock down until the 14th of April at the minimum. And May is normally a warm month here. 

It's nice to see the people coming together taking it seriously though. 

 

[snowychap]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Perhaps some good news?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

It may be but I get really worried at how people are desperately searching for a quick and almost immediate 'breakthrough' drug/vaccine to sort this out.

With a proviso that I am no biologist, immunologist or whatever, the issue of caution about vaccinations and using existing drugs to treat new viruses *seems to be* that without the requisite testing they can't be sure of the end result on the virus and there is a real chance of unforeseen consequences (e.g. making the thing worse) and that's the reason why they've been talking in terms of 12-18 months and going through proper testing procedures.

That's not to downplay some things which may well turn out to be good news but I wonder whether the world is looking towards the people researching and developing attempts to combat Covid-19 as though it's a piece of fiction and someone is going to just hit upon the right drug or vaccine, give it to someone, 'cure' them and that's it when it wouldn't appear to work like that.

Edited March 18, 2020 by snowychap
changed is to seems to be as that's just from what I've read - there may be other issues

[snowychap]

33 minutes ago, Genie said:

My employer taking a strange stance on the "avoid the office if you can" government advice. Its a very big company, with thousands on the site, and hundreds in our open plan office. They decide they split the team in 2 and come into the office on alternate days This is despite having full WFH infrastructure in place as many do it periodically already.

That sounds similar to @Stevo985's workplace.

Are they being advised by the same management consultants?

[wazzap24]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Has this been happening though? 

Yes. 
 

Reports from France and Germany are suggesting as much as 50% of people requiring ICU treatment are under 60.

[rodders0223]

5 minutes ago, snowychap said:

It may be but I get really worried at how people are desperately searching for a quick and almost immediate 'breakthrough' drug/vaccine to sort this out.

With a proviso that I am no biologist, immunologist or whatever, the issue of caution about vaccinations and using existing drugs to treat new viruses is that without the requisite testing they can't be sure of the end result on the virus and there is a real chance of unforeseen consequences (e.g. making the thing worse) and that's the reason why they've been talking in terms of 12-18 months and going through proper testing procedures.

That's not to downplay some things which may well turn out to be good news but I wonder whether the world is looking towards the people researching and developing attempts to combat Covid-19 as though it's a piece of fiction and someone is going to just hit upon the right drug or vaccine, give it to someone, 'cure' them and that's it when it wouldn't appear to work like that.

I have seen I Am Legend and confirm this is correct. No super human zombies please.

[Vive_La_Villa]

2 minutes ago, wazzap24 said:

Yes. 
 

Reports from France and Germany are suggesting as much as 50% of people requiring ICU treatment are under 60.

Scary.

[Vive_La_Villa]

I’ve decided to go in today and I have a train carriage to myself. I expect office will be the same.  It should be relatively safe right?

[wazzap24]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Scary.

Yes, it is. 
 

Depending how bad the ‘peak’ gets, hospitals are going to have to make some terrible decisions about who gets care and who doesn’t. 
 

There is a real chance that a fair amount of 30/40/50 year olds could die if the system becomes overwhelmed. 

[snowychap]

I think this appears to be similar across the industry.

[markavfc40]

10 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Has this been happening though? 

I don't know mate much like 99% of all this I am just speculating. Maybe they could release this kind of information in terms of those being hospitalised and needing ICU and tell us their ages and if they have underlying health conditions.

[rodders0223]

4 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’ve decided to go in today and I have a train carriage to myself. I expect office will be the same.  It should be relatively safe right?

Avoid breathers, avoid contact with surfaces as much as possible, wash your hands every chance you get, don't touch your face, do not eat without a solid clean up operation before hand. That's all we can do. I am taking in my own water, my own food, my own cutlery. Eating outside. Not even snacking at my desk.

[snowychap]

Edit: Also

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by snowychap

[LondonLax]

This is the modelling that is underpinning the UK response:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Estimating 510,000 deaths there if left unchecked.

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

My employer taking a strange stance on the "avoid the office if you can" government advice. Its a very big company, with thousands on the site, and hundreds in our open plan office. They decide they split the team in 2 and come into the office on alternate days This is despite having full WFH infrastructure in place as many do it periodically already.

This is what my company are doing, except alternate weeks.

It makes no sense. I keep telling them that it's risky both in terms of our health AND in terms of losing more of the workforce.

If you force half the office to be in, and Joe Bloggs who is in that week even though he doesn't need to be gets covid, then everyone who is in the office for that week is off for 2 weeks without question. And a lot of them will probably also get Covid.
What happens then? Everyone else has to come in again? What if someone in that group then gets it? Then everyone is gone and you've got nobody. Or do you split the second group in half as well?

 

If Joe Bloggs was working from home because he didn't need to be in then you only lose one person. Who can probably carry on working from home anyway

 

Alternate days is even stupider. unless they're planning to disinfect everywhere every night, then it's entirely possible that the virus would still be on surfaces when the next load of people come in. And I've worked at JLR, disinfecting that whole place every night would be insane  

Edited March 18, 2020 by Stevo985

[Stevo985]

24 minutes ago, snowychap said:

That sounds similar to @Stevo985's workplace.

Are they being advised by the same management consultants?

Exactly. It sounds like an idea that someone's come up with and everyone has gone "What a great idea!" with absolutely no scientific or medical advice behind it at all.

I'm going to have to fall in line at my place but it's pissing me off. And everyone probably thinks I just want to doss at home. No, I don't want people who work for me to get coronavirus because of this stupid idea.

 

I have a team of 3 people plus me. One is "vulnerable" so she has to work from home for the duration. One has a wife who is already rota'd so when he can be here is already dictated by that as they have kids who will presumably be at home and the grandparents are all over 70.
So that leaves two of us. And I have to work out how to get people in one week and off the next while always having someone in the office (as per our director's instructions)

It's going to be like a **** mensa puzzle

#

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Stevo985

[snowychap]

Ignore short-term GDP and avoid ‘fiscal stimulus’ – the upside-down economics of coronavirus

Quote

• The focus should be not on aggregate demand, but increased liquidity
• A Keynesian-style boost to activity might just help the virus spread
• There are many economic measures we should put above GDP during this crisis

Even if not a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth), a severe coronavirus-induced downturn looks certain across major economies.

Markets signal it. Top economists predict it (a recent IGM poll showed 62% to 8% “agreeing” it would happen.) And many “feel it” already – from disruptions to supply chains and work arrangements, to collapsing demand for leisure, travel, and entertainment.

This, though, is no ordinary downturn. Economists and commentators who talk about it as such, pushing the same-old “fiscal stimulus” arguments for encouraging spending to “protect the economy,” are not just wrong right now, but dangerous.

...

The dashboard of indicators we should care about right now is health outcomes, business failures, unemployment, and income losses for flexible workers, rather than GDP. Ideally, we’d stop demand shock “contagion” beyond industries and families obviously affected, difficult as this might be, helping them bridge to the recovery.

What might this look like? The budget took some steps – additional health resources, statutory sick pay from day 1, taxpayers stepping in to cover sick leave costs for 14 days, business rate cuts, and loans. But a lot more relief may be required for households and firms. And in this upside-down world, “paying people not to work” becomes, for the time being, a virtue. Given the speed with which the crisis is developing, existing programs – sick pay, JSA, Universal Credit – will likely need to be more generous with broadened eligibility.

... rest on link

 

[snowychap]

22 hours ago, lapal_fan said:

I think the key information in that snippet you supplied is;

"When you do an aerosol-generating procedure like in a medical care facility, you have the possibility to what we call aerosolize these particles, which means they can stay in the air a little bit longer."

Further to our discussion yesterday, I've just seen this Reuters article (an obvious caveat is that this is a journalist's summary) which appears to be about action taken in response to the research mentioned in that other article:

Quote

Scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, attempted to mimic the virus deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or touching objects.

They used a device to dispense an aerosol that duplicated the microscopic droplets created in a cough or a sneeze.

The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces, according to the study that appeared online in the New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday - a day in which U.S. COVID-19 cases surged past 5,200 and deaths approached 100.

The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours.

On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days. On cardboard, the virus was not viable after 24 hours. On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated.

....rest of article on link

On the face of it (and with the caveat as per above), this would appear to suggest that the aerosolisation occurs as part of routine actions not just medical procedures, wouldn't it?

Edit: With a further look - I just googled Neeltje van Doremalen from the original article  - I wonder whether this is new in response to that research or whether this is the following (not peer-reviewed) work carried out a week or two ago (it may be some of both, of course)?

Quote

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1

A novel human coronavirus, now named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, referred to as HCoV-19 here) that emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 is now causing a pandemic. Here, we analyze the aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 and compare it with SARS-CoV-1, the most closely related human coronavirus.2 We evaluated the stability of HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on different surfaces and estimated their decay rates using a Bayesian regression model

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by snowychap

[lapal_fan]

47 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’ve decided to go in today and I have a train carriage to myself. I expect office will be the same.  It should be relatively safe right?

You'll be fine, as long as you're sensible. 

When you pressed the button to open the carriage door, that could be contaminated and be on your hands.  When you sat in your seat, that could be contaminated and the virus could be on your clothes, then you put your bag down, with your contaminated hands, on the contaminated seat/floor, then pick it up and put it back on your contaminated clothes, then you walk into your office, and you contaminate the door handle, or further contaminate your hands, go to your desk, touch that, contaminate it. 

I'm bored now, but if you touched your face after any of these, if those surfaces were contaminated it, then it'll be on your face potentially. 

This is the kind of stuff people don't realise.

@chrisp65 mentioned he doesn't have takeaway coffee anymore because quite rightly, the staff put their entire hand on the lid you'll be sipping out of to close the lid - very sensible risk management. 

For anyone else out there who is worried about potentially contaminated stuff, google "infection control" - there are videos on youtube which give you a good overview.

I played 7-a-side yesterday.  I thought about it, but exercise is good for your immune system and it was brilliant to see before and after the game, when backslapping/hand shaking occurs normally, was absent.  At the end of the game, everyone touched elbows if they wanted to.  Got back home, kit in the wash, me in the shower, touching as little as possible, job done.  

Cricket really shouldn't be a problem as long as you're not in close proximity to others - so maybe don't spin bowl so the wicket keeper can stand off the batsmen  

Just treat yourselves as mini islands, be clean, wash hands before and after entering/leaving buildings that aren't home - and don't touch your face!