Generic Virus Thread

[bobzy]

2 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Maybe this is more for the US politics or conspiracy threads, but how the hell has vaccination become politicised? Vaccines are THE lifesaving success story of the past hundred years. And now there are morons on social media somehow claiming that they are a plot by 'leftists'. It's beyond absurd. 

Bingo!

[desensitized43]

2 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Maybe this is more for the US politics or conspiracy threads, but how the hell has vaccination become politicised? Vaccines are THE lifesaving success story of the past hundred years. And now there are morons on social media somehow claiming that they are a plot by 'leftists'. It's beyond absurd. 

how the hell has vaccination become politicised?

There's a complete breakdown of trust from both sides in what is being said. Take for example, when Boris says anything I tend to believe the opposite is true, so I'm not immune to this either. Likewise, when these (primarily right wing) anti-vax fools see an educated man like Whitty tell them something, they think he must be some stooge of the establishment trying to do the bidding of Bill Gates or George Soros.

 

Unfortunately when you've been fed a diet of "we've had enough of experts", social media bullshit, and just generally bad journalism. We've allowed a situation to arise where news organisations (the sensible ones, not the Heil and Express) have decided to have a debate about whether the sky is blue or green - with one person on each side of the debate given equal airtime and respect to their opinions - where what they should have been doing is looking out the **** window and doing some actual journalism. 

[Genie]

Can anyone explain this?

The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated (Table 6). This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

ONS report

 

[JoshVilla]

The politicisation has come from both sides, I think (this coming from me who is a liberal). A lot of it is down to social media and the very short fuses/attention spans of the people on it. If you take a look at any debate on twitter, it'll usually go something like:

"If you have the jab you are a sheep"

"If you don't have the jab you are a right-wing anti-vax moron"

We're in an "I need everything now" society. On social media, there is no room for conversation and empathy. It's all anger and labelling. This isn't just applicable to Covid either.

[bobzy]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

Can anyone explain this?

The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated (Table 6). This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

ONS report

 

More 30+ year old people are vaccinated, so if a positive instance arises, the chances are that the person is vaccinated.  The flip is true of under 30s.

It's shown on page 18 of the link you've put.  Of the 118,564 cases in 30-39 year olds, 74,950 had been double jabbed over 14 days before the positive test.  For the 357,480 cases in under 18's, that figure is 806 people.

[Genie]

23 minutes ago, bobzy said:

More 30+ year old people are vaccinated, so if a positive instance arises, the chances are that the person is vaccinated.  The flip is true of under 30s.

It's shown on page 18 of the link you've put.  Of the 118,564 cases in 30-39 year olds, 74,950 had been double jabbed over 14 days before the positive test.  For the 357,480 cases in under 18's, that figure is 806 people.

I’m sending my head a bit crazy with the numbers and disclaimers.
The raw data in this table seems to suggest that more vaccinated people are catching the virus proportionally to unvaccinated.

What am I missing? 

[Xela]

3 hours ago, Seat68 said:

I think you are right. My feeling is that I have done all I can, I will be fully vaccinated and the booster had been given. Maybe time to take a risk. My concern, and it is my only concern is that I may unwittingly pass it on to someone vulnerable. My hope is also that I pass it to an antivaxxer. That would be **** delicious. 

 

I'll be honest, I don't give the virus a second thought anymore. I'm off away on holiday again this week - I welcome busy pubs and restaurants. 

The one time I did remember it was on the train last week. Apart from that, life is normal for me now. 

[Stevo985]

31 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m sending my head a bit crazy with the numbers and disclaimers.
The raw data in this table seems to suggest that more vaccinated people are catching the virus proportionally to unvaccinated.

What am I missing? 

It's not a similar sample.

If 95% of over 30's are vaccinated, then anyone who gets covid in that population are probably going to be vaccinated. So proportionally they're going to be more.

If 95% of people under 30 AREN'T vaccinated, then the opposite is true.

 

It's like saying 95% of people who caught Covid in Villa Park were Villa fans, but only 1% of people who caught Covid at St Andrews were Villa fans.

 

(I've made up the percentages obviously)

Edited November 15, 2021 by Stevo985

[Xela]

Plus they are just the positive cases. Thats not the main concern, hospitalisations and deaths are what we should be judging it on and anecdotally, most people really ill are unvaccinated. 

Also add into the mix, if someone refuses a vaccine, they aren't likely to get tested to get a covid diagnosis if they are ill. 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Xela said:

anecdotally,

Its not even annecdotally, they published figures that I posted a good few pages back

[mjmooney]

Well, that's me boosted, with a nice dose of Pfizer. 

[bickster]

 

[Genie]

48 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It's not a similar sample.

If 95% of over 30's are vaccinated, then anyone who gets covid in that population are probably going to be vaccinated. So proportionally they're going to be more.

If 95% of people under 30 AREN'T vaccinated, then the opposite is true.

 

It's like saying 95% of people who caught Covid in Villa Park were Villa fans, but only 1% of people who caught Covid at St Andrews were Villa fans.

 

(I've made up the percentages obviously)

Yeah, I’m ok with that, but for example 50-59 year olds 117,264 positive cases of which only 6,922 were unvaccinated. 95% are vaccinated people against about 80-85% vaccinated population.

How does that fit with the vaccine helping to reduce transmission which is often stated?

[a m ole]

56 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It's not a similar sample.

If 95% of over 30's are vaccinated, then anyone who gets covid in that population are probably going to be vaccinated. So proportionally they're going to be more.

If 95% of people under 30 AREN'T vaccinated, then the opposite is true.

 

It's like saying 95% of people who caught Covid in Villa Park were Villa fans, but only 1% of people who caught Covid at St Andrews were Villa fans.

 

(I've made up the percentages obviously)

Can you have 1% of a number lower than a hundred?

[bobzy]

46 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yeah, I’m ok with that, but for example 50-59 year olds 117,264 positive cases of which only 6,922 were unvaccinated. 95% are vaccinated people against about 80-85% vaccinated population.

How does that fit with the vaccine helping to reduce transmission which is often stated?

Are unvaccinated people getting tested or just blissfully carrying on with their lives? How many people are vaccinated per age range?

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Are unvaccinated people getting tested or just blissfully carrying on with their lives? How many people are vaccinated per age range?

There’s about 7m vaccinated in the 50-59 group.

[bobzy]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

There’s about 7m vaccinated in the 50-59 group.

So there’s apparently about 7.7m people in that range which would mean vaccination uptake around 91%.

In the table, 104,390 people are at least one-jab vaccinated in the 117,264 cases (89%).

There’ll be multiple things at play. Vaccine effectiveness is wearing off, unvaccinated people are generally less likely to bother getting tested etc. 

[Genie]

Just now, bobzy said:

So there’s apparently about 7.7m people in that range which would mean vaccination uptake around 91%.

In the table, 104,390 people are at least one-jab vaccinated in the 117,264 cases (89%).

There’ll be multiple things at play. Vaccine effectiveness is wearing off, unvaccinated people are generally less likely to bother getting tested etc. 

Thanks, that’s what I thought but also expected that the unvaccinated quantity to be a higher percentage than it is. It’s actually proportionately less than vaccinated.

[sidcow]

I definitely think we need to have some kind of citizenship classes in future to teach things like critical thinking, selflessness for the sake of society, environmental issues, about the NHS and more education about things like vaccines and the good they have done for mankind.  I'm sure there is loads more.  Maybe about democracy and why it's important to vote. 

Someone mentioned about not trusting Johnson but the messages have mainly come from Chris Whitty and Van-Tam.  OK experts are not always speaking Gospel but part of critical thinking should be to put more weight on the words of people like that than some random bloke on Twitter. 

The internet is not going away and kids need help to navigate some of this. My kids currently believe pretty much everything they see online. 

Hell I'm guilty of it myself, people post up tweets on here they've found somewhere and I probably don't question it enough assuming someone has down their own analysis before lumping it on here which it's often subsequently clear they haven't. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by sidcow

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The internet is not going away and kids need help to navigate some of this. My kids currently believe pretty much everything they see online. 

This is real worry for me. My boy (11) comes out with all kinds of crap from what he’s seen on YouTube. I worry he’s going go grow up as some kind of loony conspiracy theorist.