The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[colhint]

Don't you think that perhaps Brexit is the biggest issue in this campaign. If it is, as I suspect it is,  Then as of today Labour can't say whether they are to end freedom of movement or not. If they are  to end it, I would imagine,plenty of people will remind them, that's not what was voted on at conference. I would think this would be brought up right from the day the manifesto goes out until polling day. As I understand conference voted to close all immigration centres and expand freedom of movement.  So my take is that whatever they come up with as policy, will be vastly watered down on this one issue.

[sharkyvilla]

9 hours ago, colhint said:

Don't you think that perhaps Brexit is the biggest issue in this campaign. If it is, as I suspect it is,  Then as of today Labour can't say whether they are to end freedom of movement or not. If they are  to end it, I would imagine,plenty of people will remind them, that's not what was voted on at conference. I would think this would be brought up right from the day the manifesto goes out until polling day. As I understand conference voted to close all immigration centres and expand freedom of movement.  So my take is that whatever they come up with as policy, will be vastly watered down on this one issue.

I was thinking something similar, I take any manifesto promises, especially regarding spending, with a pinch of salt because nobody knows how screwed (or not screwed) the economy will be after Brexit finally hits.  Brexit will be the biggest issue by far and is why I'd rather we had a referendum just on that rather than a whole election.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, sharkyvilla said:

I was thinking something similar, I take any manifesto promises, especially regarding spending, with a pinch of salt because nobody knows how screwed (or not screwed) the economy will be after Brexit finally hits.  Brexit will be the biggest issue by far and is why I'd rather we had a referendum just on that rather than a whole election.

There won’t be a big event that hits the economy (unless there is still to be a ‘no deal’ crash out). I’d say it would be more like air slowly leaking out of a balloon, which is only really put into context when looking back. 

Should the withdrawal agreement go through I wouldn’t expect a huge change on the day after Brexit compared with the day before but over time the UK will be missing out on economic growth compared with the benefits of free trade and freedom of movement.

[bickster]

12 hours ago, PompeyVillan said:

It's still early in the campaigns but according to the polls The Conservatives have a comfortable lead over Labour, that will be difficult to assail. 

However, the manifestos go out early next week and we'll have some TV debates coming up as well. Expect Labour to draw a bit closer, The Conservatives have gambled on having only one policy (Brexit) , which will stale a bit over the next few when particularly Labour come out with popular policy ideas again. 

The gap was much wider at this stage in 2017 I think I read somewhere last week

I also read that impression people have of the Johnson / Tory vote is that it’s very soft in that lots are saying they’ll vote Tory but don’t really want to because they know Johnson is an asshat. They also think there will be a lot of undecideds who at this stage are probably non voters.

Only problem with this is, they really don’t want Corbyn either

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

The gap was much wider at this stage in 2017 I think I read somewhere last week

They were level when Boris became PM though iirc,  everyone knew about Boris before his was PM. 

I don't think much will move now in terms of who votes for who until maybe the TV debate.  Corbyn can't beat Boris 1 on 1,  this won be like PMQ's.  I think he will get battered but lets see.

[bickster]

49 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

They were level when Boris became PM though iirc,  everyone knew about Boris before his was PM. 

I don't think much will move now in terms of who votes for who until maybe the TV debate.  Corbyn can't beat Boris 1 on 1,  this won be like PMQ's.  I think he will get battered but lets see.

Unscripted lies vs unscripted unicorn waffle

[snowychap]

 

[Demitri_C]

20 hours ago, ml1dch said:

Well I know that Johnson has a pretty colourful personal life, but that's a bit of a surprise.

 

 

Oh dear

[PompeyVillan]

There is some controversy over polls on Twitter, apparently the big pollsters are using data suggesting that the age turnout of young voters is waaay down on 2017 figures and that turnout for older voters (65+) will actually be up.

I'm not sure how accurate any of these claims or methodology are, however I do know that Labour (and to a lesser extent LibDems) are popular with younger voters. 

If they can convince them to vote, then they could potentially catch the pollsters out. I hope. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

I whacked a fiver on labour majority at 20-1.  I sense a massive shock.

[Demitri_C]

21 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I whacked a fiver on labour majority at 20-1.  I sense a massive shock.

Id be stunned if that was the case.  I can only see a hung parliament again.

[colhint]

2 hours ago, PompeyVillan said:

There is some controversy over polls on Twitter, apparently the big pollsters are using data suggesting that the age turnout of young voters is waaay down on 2017 figures and that turnout for older voters (65+) will actually be up.

I'm not sure how accurate any of these claims or methodology are, however I do know that Labour (and to a lesser extent LibDems) are popular with younger voters. 

If they can convince them to vote, then they could potentially catch the pollsters out. I hope. 

weren't a lot of young voters thinking tuition fees were being abolished back then?

[chrisp65]

45 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I whacked a fiver on labour majority at 20-1.  I sense a massive shock.

So, you feel they can keep all their current seats AND gain at least a further 64?

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

So, you feel they can keep all their current seats AND gain at least a further 64?

 

Nah I just have a gambling problem.

[chrisp65]

Nah, you’d have got at least 28 - 1 if you hung around the gambling scene.

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

Nah, you’d have got at least 28 - 1 if you hung around the gambling scene.

I didn’t say I was good at it

[chrisp65]

Well, fwiw, I hope you win.

Then we really would live in interesting times.

I mean, a photo op between Corbyn and Trump. Who wouldn’t pay good money to see that?

[sharkyvilla]

2 hours ago, PompeyVillan said:

There is some controversy over polls on Twitter, apparently the big pollsters are using data suggesting that the age turnout of young voters is waaay down on 2017 figures and that turnout for older voters (65+) will actually be up.

I'm not sure how accurate any of these claims or methodology are, however I do know that Labour (and to a lesser extent LibDems) are popular with younger voters. 

If they can convince them to vote, then they could potentially catch the pollsters out. I hope. 

There was a poll recently where Boris rated higher than Corbyn within the 18-24 year old bracket.  While that is probably an outlier it probably means that the youth vote might not be so one-sided or energised this time round.  Was it Canterbury that managed to overturn a massive Tory majority in 2017 based on the student vote?  I'm not convinced it'll happen this time.

[chrisp65]

There’s a lot said about the politicised student or youth vote. I’m not so sure it gets anywhere near counter balancing the pensioner that has warped time to convince themselves they fought and had a starring role in WWII.

Two things recently, in the kitchen in my office, there was a politics conversation and one of the younger members of staff asked ‘which side is Boris, he’s a conservative?’ Now admittedly they guessed correctly, but bloody hell that amazed me. Second, on R4 a few days ago they had two uni students studying politics. They introduced them to a podcast about the Berlin Wall. The one politics student claimed never to have previously heard of the Berlin Wall.

Youth will not save us. They’ll be busy making witty posters for the next protest march.

[bickster]

18 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Was it Canterbury that managed to overturn a massive Tory majority in 2017 based on the student vote? 

Yep, 10k majority, Just looked it up on Wiki, The incumbent Tory actually increased his vote by 2K but Labour got an extra 12k

NF Corp do not appear to be standing this time, even though its currently a Labour seat? Another knighthood for someone