The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[snowychap]

41 minutes ago, theboyangel said:

don't know how to convince the wife to draw a huge penis on my voting slip for me!

If you can't bring your wife's mind to a huge penis then I'm not so sure we can help.

[HanoiVillan]

Halesown & Rowley Regis:

Ian Cooper (LAB)

John Cross (IND)

Ian Fleming (IND)

James Morris (CON)

Ryan Priest (LIB DEM)

Tim Weller (IND)

James Windridge (GRN)

 

H & RR is in theory a marginal-ish constituency (roughly 5,000 CON majority in 2017) but like most of the outer Birmingham conurbation it's rapidly trending towards the Tories so you'd expect a larger majority for 'Mr Invisible' Morris. Dunno who any of the independents are.

[StefanAVFC]

Lichfield a total waste of time

Fabri-word removed will win

[bickster]

2 hours ago, cyrusr said:

Renew and the Liberal party? That’s going to be a busy stage on 12 December. Just need Ivor Biggun and William Pitt the Even Younger.

I’d never even heard of Renew until I looked at the candidates. The leader of the Liberals is a Liverpool councillor, they control one ward, much like the LibDems.

He's an effwit, I've had dealings, no idea why they are standing here

[cyrusr]

11 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Halesown & Rowley Regis:

Ian Cooper (LAB)

John Cross (IND)

Ian Fleming (IND)

James Morris (CON)

Ryan Priest (LIB DEM)

Tim Weller (IND)

James Windridge (GRN)

 

H & RR is in theory a marginal-ish constituency (roughly 5,000 CON majority in 2017) but like most of the outer Birmingham conurbation it's rapidly trending towards the Tories so you'd expect a larger majority for 'Mr Invisible' Morris. Dunno who any of the independents are.

John cross is ex-NF Party who’s standing anyway so may take a chunk out of the Labour & Tory votes but not sure who will lose the most. Tim Weller seems to be some local nut job - running as mayor next year apparently... Ian Fleming seems to have taken time out from writing Bond books and being dead but not sure how well he will do. Can’t foresee Lib Dems/Greens doing anything productive. Looks to be a straight fight between Tories/Labour. 

[cyrusr]

9 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Lichfield a total waste of time

Fabri-word removed will win

Yeah looking at figures it looks to be pretty solid. Especially without an NF Party rep, will simply solidify the lead.

[HanoiVillan]

42 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

John cross is ex-NF Party who’s standing anyway so may take a chunk out of the Labour & Tory votes but not sure who will lose the most. Tim Weller seems to be some local nut job - running as mayor next year apparently... Ian Fleming seems to have taken time out from writing Bond books and being dead but not sure how well he will do. Can’t foresee Lib Dems/Greens doing anything productive. Looks to be a straight fight between Tories/Labour. 

Thanks for the info on the independents. I completely agree it will be a CON-LAB fight, but the Tories must be optimistic given the demographics of the seat, and the trends in other, similar seats.

[snowychap]

Lib Dems

Quote

The government should run a permanent spending surplus, the Liberal Democrats have said in a bid to position themselves as the toughest party on public finances.

...more

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Lib Dems

what the actual ****?

[villaglint]

An obvious play for the Tory remainers but doesn’t make it any less mad. 

Still just throw it on the pile I guess. 

I remember reading an academic article in the Blair Years saying New Labour had effectively ended politics and the parties were really just arguing now who could manage things most efficiently. 

Didnt really stand the test of time that one. 

[Chindie]

Piss Tories.

[ml1dch]

23 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

what the actual ****?

It's almost as if they've just focus-grouped the question "what would convince Conservative remain voters to become Lib Dems?" and are just rolling out the answers.

My guess is that they've decided there is limited electoral mileage in trying to further squeeze the Labour support. They're either on board already because Brexit trumps their other concerns, or Corbyn / antisemitism has turned them off Labour. There probably isn't much that the Lib Dems can announce that will send those voters back the other way. 

They're now trying to appeal to the voters that they lost to Cameron in 2015.

So while it strikes me as a pretty odd policy, there's probably a chunk of Lib Dem / Tory undecideds for whom it's exactly what they want to hear. 

[HanoiVillan]

7 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

It's almost as if they've just focus-grouped the question "what would convince Conservative remain voters to become Lib Dems?" and are just rolling out the answers.

My guess is that they've decided there is limited electoral mileage in trying to further squeeze the Labour support. They're either on board already because Brexit trumps their other concerns, or Corbyn / antisemitism has turned them off Labour. There probably isn't much that the Lib Dems can announce that will send those voters back the other way. 

They're now trying to appeal to the voters that they lost to Cameron in 2015.

So while it strikes me as a pretty odd policy, there's probably a chunk of Lib Dem / Tory undecideds for whom it's exactly what they want to hear. 

Possibly. Though I think they might want to be careful about losing voters back to Labour too (they already have lost a bunch on current polling).

The bigger picture, though, is that that is a disastrous, terrible policy that is actually worse than the Tories are offering.

[ml1dch]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Possibly. Though I think they might want to be careful about losing voters back to Labour too (they already have lost a bunch on current polling).

While I'm sure they'd rather not lose any voters, it's probably a risk they need to take. There aren't many three way, or Labour / Lib Dem marginals, so there is limited scope for taking many seats from Labour. 

Of their top 150 target seats, only around 20 are Labour held. Jumping from third to second in a hundred Labour seats isn't much use. Taking 20 seats in the south-west back from the Conservatives? That's possibly the difference between a Conservative majority or not.

[bickster]

37 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

It's almost as if they've just focus-grouped the question "what would convince Conservative remain voters to become Lib Dems?" and are just rolling out the answers.

My guess is that they've decided there is limited electoral mileage in trying to further squeeze the Labour support. They're either on board already because Brexit trumps their other concerns, or Corbyn / antisemitism has turned them off Labour. There probably isn't much that the Lib Dems can announce that will send those voters back the other way. 

They're now trying to appeal to the voters that they lost to Cameron in 2015.

So while it strikes me as a pretty odd policy, there's probably a chunk of Lib Dem / Tory undecideds for whom it's exactly what they want to hear. 

This is what the LibDems have always done. Talk the right bollocks for the target audience. Brexit apart, there's little they'll say that they can't walk back later, especially as they know their only chance is as a minority partner in a coalition government

In reality, they only have one policy that matters. Anti-Brexit, the rest is waffle

[peterms]

They couldn't have made it clearer that they have no remorse, no regrets, no rethinking what they did in coalition.  Appalling.

[ml1dch]

18 minutes ago, bickster said:

This is what the LibDems have always done. Talk the right bollocks for the target audience. Brexit apart, there's little they'll say that they can't walk back later, especially as they know their only chance is as a minority partner in a coalition government

In reality, they only have one policy that matters. Anti-Brexit, the rest is waffle

Yup. If you're never going to have to implement your policies, you can get away with just saying what you need to say.

But for a whole lot of people, as long as they don't walk back their most important policy the rest can be sorted out later.

[ml1dch]

Well I know that Johnson has a pretty colourful personal life, but that's a bit of a surprise.

 

 

[Chindie]

In fairness he's already lost count of the kids he's got knocking around. Better to be safe.

[PompeyVillan]

It's still early in the campaigns but according to the polls The Conservatives have a comfortable lead over Labour, that will be difficult to assail. 

However, the manifestos go out early next week and we'll have some TV debates coming up as well. Expect Labour to draw a bit closer, The Conservatives have gambled on having only one policy (Brexit) , which will stale a bit over the next few when particularly Labour come out with popular policy ideas again.