The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[markavfc40]

This is Tory Britain in 2019, the 5th richest country in the world yet ideological choices mean 1 in 3 children are growing up in poverty. It is heartbreaking. Can anyone seriously watch this and think what we need is 5 more years of the Tories.

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by markavfc40

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

My God man, you've read the full article!?! Just read the headline and form an arbitrary and immediate opinion on Corbyn without the need for balance or context. If people start reading whole articles and looking for balance how are we ever going to make time to GET. BREXIT. DONE ?

 

FTFY

[chrisp65]

 

Quote

The Conservative lead in the general election campaign has been more than halved in just one week, putting the UK in “hung parliamentterritory”, an exclusive poll for The Independent shows.

Boris Johnson’s party is now only six points ahead of Labour, it has found – matching other surveys suggesting the race is tightening dramatically, amid growing Tory nervousness.

Jeremy Corbyn is successfully winning back the support of voters threatening to defect to other parties, the poll by BMG Research shows, taking his party’s rating up five points to 33 per cent.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dipped two points to 39 per cent, six points ahead instead of the 13 points in BMG’s survey a week ago.

Crucially, polling experts believe a lead of at least six points will be needed to deliver the Commons majority Mr Johnson is seeking – and his Brexit deal in January

Independent

 

[sharkyvilla]

What do people think will happen after the election if Labour don't win a majority e.g. is a hung parliament enough for Corbyn to stay on?  Would he ever decide to stand down of his own accord, whatever happens?

Edited December 1, 2019 by sharkyvilla

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

This is Tory Britian in 2019, the 5th richest country in the world yet ideological choices mean 1 in 3 children are growing up in poverty. It is heartbreaking. Can anyone seriously watch this and think what we need is 5 more years of the Tories.

 

Thank you for posting that Mark, I was just going to do the same.

The last Labour government did plenty of bad stuff, and I was no fan, but year on year, they reduced child poverty in this country. When you compare the amount of child poverty now, and the amount of homelessness, and the amount of people struggling on inadequate pay, trying to get by on in-work benefits, it's like chalk and cheese.

The Tories did this. They did it by choice, because this was an acceptable price for them to achieve their ideological goal of shrinking the state.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

What do people think will happen after the election if Labour don't win a majority e.g. is a hung parliament enough for Corbyn to stay on?  Would he ever decide to stand down of his own accord, whatever happens?

I think we’d be in properly uncharted territory.

Traditionally, losing two would be an automatic step down. But these are weird circumstances, the last two elections have been called for purely opportune political reasons. So for the tories to ‘not win’ both times would give some argument for staying on to Get. Something Nebulous. Done.

[HanoiVillan]

Further to the above: KEEP GOING, DON'T STOP

 

[markavfc40]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Thank you for posting that Mark, I was just going to do the same.

The last Labour government did plenty of bad stuff, and I was no fan, but year on year, they reduced child poverty in this country. When you compare the amount of child poverty now, and the amount of homelessness, and the amount of people struggling on inadequate pay, trying to get by on in-work benefits, it's like chalk and cheese.

The Tories did this. They did it by choice, because this was an acceptable price for them to achieve their ideological goal of shrinking the state.

I couldn't agree more mate. They hid behind the financial crisis, which they blamed on Labour, as an excuse for austerity and give the most vulnerable amongst us a right good kicking. It was their wet dream and they made out they had no other choice and plenty of selfish and/or foolish bastards believed them. There was a choice though which was to tax those amongst us who could afford to pay a few quid more, and there are plenty of us in that boat, and protect those most vulnerable amongst us and our public services.

I read something the other day that said "Think of the most vulnerable person you know and vote in their best interests". Do that simple thing and it is impossible to wake up to a Tory government on December 13th.

[PieFacE]

2 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

 

 

Seems quite reasonable?

[peterms]

11 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Further to the above: KEEP GOING, DON'T STOP

 

This is what happens after dark in Chingford if you've failed to hang bulbs of garlic at the door.  Let this be a lesson.

[chrisp65]

“Are you inviting me in? You need to invite me over the threshold”

[Xela]

Reminds me of this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-50502072

Quote

No charges will be brought against two men arrested on suspicion of indecency offences after a person dressed in a gimp suit jumped out on a woman.

[HanoiVillan]

Slightly more pessimistic than the last time I posted one of these. Above all it demonstrates the damage that the SNP, and to a much lesser extent Plaid, are doing to Labour's prospects. The SNP's vote share is only about 4% of the total, but they are likely to take well over 40 seats, in most of which Labour are in second place, and there seems to no prospect whatsoever of squeezing that vote (which would be the highest return for smallest portion of vote squeeze). Instead Labour need to try to bring the Lib Dem vote down as far as possible, but that might well help Tories rather than hinder them overall, since Lib Dems are more frequently competitive in areas of the country where Labour aren't. The big prize is winning over the most marginal Tory voters, but I think that would take some fairly major missteps from their campaign that haven't been in evidence yet.

[chrisp65]

Not seeing what harm Plaid could be doing?

Absolute best they will achieve is to retain 4 seats they already have and elsewhere they’ve stood down to give labour a clear run. Short of packing it all in and physically leafleting for Labour I can’t see what more they could do.

Labour losing labour seats is where you need to be looking. 

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

Not seeing what harm Plaid could be doing?

Absolute best they will achieve is to retain 4 seats they already have and elsewhere they’ve stood down to give labour a clear run. Short of packing it all in and physically leafleting for Labour I can’t see what more they could do.

Labour losing labour seats is where you need to be looking. 

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest that Plaid *should* be doing anything other than what they are. Their voters aren't Labour's property, nor are the SNP's, and that isn't what I was suggesting. Labour needs to win back those voters by offering them something better.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest that Plaid *should* be doing anything other than what they are. Their voters aren't Labour's property, nor are the SNP's, and that isn't what I was suggesting. Labour needs to win back those voters by offering them something better.

I think Lbaour have only won one of those seats in the last 20 years. The only thing Labour could do to win them is offer an Indyref and that's never going to happen, it would be electoral suicide for them, they still have too many MPs in Wales and it could upset too many voters in other seats. Labour needs to concentrate on taking Tory seats in Wales if anything. Its one up for them and one down for the Tories so is much better on the away goals rule

[HanoiVillan]

Just now, bickster said:

I think Lbaour have only won one of those seats in the last 20 years. The only thing Labour could do to win them is offer an Indyref and that's never going to happen, it would be electoral suicide for them, they still have too many MPs in Wales and it could upset too many voters in other seats. Labour needs to concentrate on taking Tory seats in Wales if anything. Its one up for them and one down for the Tories so is much better on the away goals rule

Yes, that's right, but minor party votes *in those CON-LAB seats* can tip the balance towards the former. My point really is twofold; first, and more generally, the rise in nationalism is bad for Labour, as the Tories present a clearer 'unionist' position, which squeezes Labour (and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems) in the middle. Secondly, in this election, the proportion of undecided voters is now getting quite small, so converting undecideds won't make enough difference to turn the polls around, and Labour - who are second in the majority of Tory-leaning seats - will need to both win Tories and squeeze minor parties. Converting Tories is the most effective, since as you say it's one off Column A as well as one on Column B, but it's generally harder. 

[HanoiVillan]

You do indeed love to see it:

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[bickster]

Of course the other problem in Wales is the really low opinion of the parties representatives in the Senedd across Wales

[HanoiVillan]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Of course the other problem in Wales is the really low opinion of the parties representatives in the Senedd across Wales

That sounds plausible. I confess I don't know much about politics in the Senedd.