The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[Wainy316]

I wonder how the SNP would feel about the idea of proportional representation

[snowychap]

26 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

I wonder how the SNP would feel about the idea of proportional representation

I think they're on record as being in favour of it (even though they are huge beneficiaries of FPTP in Westminster elections).

There doesn't appear to be anything in this election's manifesto but Sturgeon seems to have repeated comments in favour of it this year and here's Tommy Sheppard (their Cabinet Office spokesperson in the Westminster party) on FPTP:

 

[bickster]

11 hours ago, peterms said:

Shoukd have found him a seat on that train, and not spread lying videos after.

 

Ironic really that Virgin lose their franchise this coming Sunday. Seems a bit of a pointless dig being as Branson won't be running trains in the UK after Saturday

I'm assuming they knew this but one should never assume what politicians know

[Dodgyknees]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Ironic really that Virgin lose their franchise this coming Sunday. Seems a bit of a pointless dig being as Branson won't be running trains in the UK after Saturday

I'm assuming they knew this but one should never assume what politicians know

He's the most well known, it makes a lot of sense. Imo.

[cyrusr]

So Vote for Policies is live, which provides you with the policies anonymously and asks you to choose which you prefer. 

Mine were: 

Green Party - 40%

Liberal Democrats - 33.3%

Labour - 26.7%

Surprised by the Lib Dems getting so high, but do I think they will just give in to anyone that gives them a sniff of power again? Probably. However, it does show which side of the fence I am on. Sadly hasn't really helped with my Green/Labour dilemma of whether to vote on principle or to vote the least worse. There were a few options that I liked in each of the areas, so wouldn't be unhappy with some of them, so need to see if they are Green or Labour policies to see whether that helps in decisions.

What is perhaps more interesting and frustrating is the wider results. So for England*: 

Labour - 24.8%

Green Party - 24.4%

Liberal Democrats - 22.3%

Conservatives - 17.9%

Brexit Party - 10.5%

*there are obviously Wales and Scotland covered as well, however I don't get access to just Wales/Scotland which would be a better representation rather than the 0.5% - 1% shares that they are currently getting. 

 

This does reaffirm that the views of approximately 70,000 are somewhat in keeping in mine, but it does beg the question why do the Tories get so many votes when people don't really like their policies?! 

If the proportions were based on what policies people liked then we would be looking at this sort of parliament: 

National Prediction: Labour short 64 of majority

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	17.2%	1	102	-101	217
LAB	41.0%	262	23.9%	17	17	+0	262
LIB	7.6%	12	21.5%	79	0	+79	91
Brexit	0.0%	0	10.1%	2	0	+2	2
Green	1.7%	1	23.5%	5	0	+5	6
SNP	3.1%	35	3.6%	17	1	+16	51
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.7%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

So we would probably end up with a Labour and Lib Dem coalition; which may actually be a good thing. However, sadly, I do not think the Greens will get anywhere near 23.5% share of the votes. the fact that they would only get 6 seats with that is disgraceful. Also that Tories would still be the 2nd biggest party despite only getting the 4th biggest share. Shows how fundamentally flawed the FPTP system is and only really benefits the Tories. Glad at least all parties bar the Tories are recommending some form of PR/reform of the House of Lords. 

[Davkaus]

I can't look at any of these predicted votes/seats tables without absolutely despairing about our electoral system.

I know, the actual results aren't going to look anything like this, but just compare the green/lib dem/SNP seats and votes. It's not democracy. 

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Proportional voting wouldn’t end the Conservative Party but it would splinter the major parties and make them comparable to the smaller parties. 

For example, Labour would split into New Labour and Momentum, whilst the Tories would split between the Johnson/Gove/Raab etc faction and the Clarke/Gawke etc faction. 

These four smaller parties would then need to form coalitions (with each other and with the Lib Dem’s/Greens/Brexit Party etc) to form a majority able to govern. That’s when you get the ‘horse trading’ on manifesto pledges that becomes the main criticism of PR. 

This is right; there is a natural tendency to only see the virtues of PR because 'the grass is always greener', but there would still be a similar amount of public frustration with the electoral system, it would just be about different things. 'Irrelevant' manifestos would be 'meaningless', as 'corrupt' politicians form power based on 'squalid backroom deals' etc. 

[bickster]

I did that policy thang

 

[HanoiVillan]

Seems like this went well:

I imagine her trousers fell down a la Alan Partridge as well. 

[rubberman]

I did it too and found I am 6.7% brexit party* and now I want to top myself. 

It is always interesting how much more people agree with green policies but often don't vote for them. Though I suppose those filling out these sites are quite self-selecting and have to have an interest in policies in the first place. 

*(TBH their NHS policy seemed much the same as the others) 

[cyrusr]

20 minutes ago, bickster said:

I did that policy thang

 

Tory boy!

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, cyrusr said:

So Vote for Policies is live, which provides you with the policies anonymously and asks you to choose which you prefer. 

Mine were: 

Green Party - 40%

Liberal Democrats - 33.3%

Labour - 26.7%

Surprised by the Lib Dems getting so high, but do I think they will just give in to anyone that gives them a sniff of power again? Probably. However, it does show which side of the fence I am on. Sadly hasn't really helped with my Green/Labour dilemma of whether to vote on principle or to vote the least worse. There were a few options that I liked in each of the areas, so wouldn't be unhappy with some of them, so need to see if they are Green or Labour policies to see whether that helps in decisions.

 

Here's mine , I opted for All and did the long version

tbh some were quite tricky as I could have gone with more than one option (i.e environment & NHS ) , but went with a kinda if forced i guess it would be this one  , with that caveat in mind  ...

Conservative - 40% - I agree with them on brexit , Education , Democracy ,Foreign policy , NHS ,Immigration & Jobs

Green - 26.7% -  I agree with them on The Environment , Housing and Transport

Brexit - 20% - i agree with them on Tax & Crime .. tax was a bit skewed as I was swayed by abolish inheritance tax  , in a pick one of the 5 maybes

Labour - 6.7% - seems i agree with them on the Economy

Libs  - 6.7% - I agree with them Welfare & Pensions

 

tbh some policies are known to be a specific party so it can kinda sway you a little if you want to achieve VT merits points for having 0% Conservative

 

interestingly in my constituency which Hammond won with 61% of the votes  in 2017 , policy wise the 111 people that have done this come out as

Lib Dem - 25.7%

Green - 23.9 %

Tory - 21%

Labour 19.5 5

Brexit 10  %

Edited December 3, 2019 by tonyh29

[snowychap]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 'source' or others discussing the future of Ofcom at some point.

[Davkaus]

Quote

tbh some policies are known to be a specific party so it can kinda sway you a little if you want to achieve VT merits points for having 0% Conservative 

I agree with this, it makes the whole exercise a bit tricky. It doesn't matter how good the policy is if you don't believe the person that's promising it.

[Genie]

Wouldn't it be fantastic if the election was done via that policy questionnaire. No names, no colours. The parties submit their policies privately and then the public run through the questions and get a vote at the end.

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Here's mine , I opted for All and did the long version

I did the long one too. I got the results below. I think they might be a bit skewed because there are a couple of Green and a couple of Labour policies I recognised, and really don't like, so I ended up picking what appear to be LD answers for those questions.

Not a hint of tory in my answers. :smug:

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

I agree with this, it makes the whole exercise a bit tricky. It doesn't matter how good the policy is if you don't believe the person that's promising it.

tbf in bullet point form and at face value ( and not  knowing how they would be paid for etc )  I ended up picking 4 of the policies in most instances anyway  and then having to choose one  , as mentioned in the instance of tax it was purely the abolish inheritance tax line that swayed it , none of the policies on offer were particularly offensive in most cases .

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

Not a hint of tory in my answers. :smug:

[a m ole]

2/3s Labour, 1/3 split Lib Dem and Green. My soul is pure.

Interestingly the national and England results show a quarter Lab, quarter Green, just under a quarter Lib Dem.

Are the more left leaning public more likely to use the site, and why? Or does the general public not vote for what it really wants?

[cyrusr]

16 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

tbh some policies are known to be a specific party so it can kinda sway you a little if you want to achieve VT merits points for having 0% Conservative

And I have damn well earned those merit points!  But seriously, some policies were identifiable as they have been discussed significantly in the press; however some were not.

However

19 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Labour - 6.7% - seems i agree with them on the Economy

You Communist!