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Investing - the stock market and more


KenjiOgiwara

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4 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I will find some solid dividend here and there and play it safe. 

I paper traded this strategy years ago. Had a look last year at progress and would have made a killing. Instead I spent all my money trying to short US. indices inflated by QE, low interest rates and massive tax cuts.  What the hell was I thinking!! 

Anyway I bet you can get guess how that went. 

These days I have a very small pot I use to BTFD’s!  It’s growing slowly but surely.

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I have some savings in stock but I'm not active in selling and buying. I don't plan to touch it until I'm retired. As part of it is in Swedbank I'm definitely not touching that right now.

The dividends are nice every year. Especially H&M and Sandvik have payed good the last years.

 

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I buy shares in my employer because I get them at a 5% discount and they just relentlessly increase all the time.  Their share graph since the 90s has been incredible.  I just pay 1% of my wages each month which they take automatically. 

I used the Degiro platform to buy some Lloyd's bank shares.  Their fees are really really low and you get a basic stockbroking service for a fraction of what most seem to charge. 

I bought Lloyd's shares because I feel they are very undervalued and they offer high dividends.  They have pretty much fallen constantly since I bought the first tranche about a year ago and continued to fall after I bought another lot.  Now they are back a above the cost of my second lot and just below the cost of the first lot.  All the commentators seem to think they are set to rise though, plus I will reinvest the dividends which are as I said higher than most companies.   I'm treating it as a long term holding. 

I may consider buying some others, it would be nice to afford a bit of a portfolio and do some buying and selling for fun but 2 kids preclude that! 

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  • 2 months later...

Can anybody recommend a platform to buy and sell shares that wont eat up all of the profits (hopefully) in fees?

Initially i'm looking to build a smallish portfolio investing 1k with 3 maybe 4 different stocks.

I was leaning towards AJ Bell or Hargreaves Lansdown.

 

 

 

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  • 9 months later...

What are people doing with their investments in this time of tanking? I generally always bought mutual stock growth funds, but these are down 13% atm. The only fund I have who's holding its own is a green investment fund focusing on Northern Europe.

Still my global mutual growth stock funds were up with cose to 30% last year, so I'm not all that scared in the interim. I wonder at which point it's smart to invest during this thing, do I wait longer?

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Depends on your view doesn't it? Are you a long-term investor mostly investing in funds I'd probably sit tight with it. Ups and downs are parts of the game. I'm not touching my pensions funds whatever happens. It's almost impossible to time downturns and once you've sold out ypu never know when to buy back in.  Are you invested in spesific stocks that are in for a tough time due to the economic losses, maybe you should consider a sale of those assets. I just had a 30% loss in 2 months on my divy stocks. Sold large parts of it put 10 days ago cause the companies will struggle to survive this, so I'd rather take a big hit than lose everything invested. Especially some of the transport and cyclical stuff. 

I fully believe buying big blue chip stocks, with a divy that isn't cyclic, is a good thing though. Most likely you've made money on that a year from now. 

In terms of buying new funds for a recession I don't know much about it. Suspect there's some defensive funds with low beta policies.

Edited by KenjiOgiwara
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5 hours ago, magnkarl said:

What are people doing with their investments in this time of tanking? I generally always bought mutual stock growth funds, but these are down 13% atm. The only fund I have who's holding its own is a green investment fund focusing on Northern Europe.

Still my global mutual growth stock funds were up with cose to 30% last year, so I'm not all that scared in the interim. I wonder at which point it's smart to invest during this thing, do I wait longer?

I was already mainly invested in blue chip cash-rich companies that can exploit a recession / crash to go on an acquisition spree:

  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • Amazon
  • Alphabet
  • Microsoft

(Just examples, do your own research.)

Similarly keep an eye out for cash flow and healthy balance sheets with any small / mid cap bets, since even “good” businesses will likely go bust in this recession, and low overheads and good cash flow will be essential for survival.

IMO the market is still reacting emotionally to exponential growth of covid, so you could wait a good 4-6 weeks (Mondays are the best since the weekend accentuates the carnage) for the lowest point of the crash, at which point you can go in quite hard.

This is all my opinion, not financial advice!

(Also, I would much rather we solved covid-19 and saved lives than had so many shares trading at bargain basement prices, but it’s a convenient side effect if you have a bit of cash kicking around.)

Edited by KentVillan
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47 minutes ago, wazzap24 said:

What about Netflix? 

They should get a pretty big boost in subscriber numbers this year? 

Have a read of this: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-healthy-171437295.html

Quote

How Strong Is Netflix's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Netflix had liabilities of US$6.93b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$17.1b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$5.00b in cash and US$492.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$18.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given Netflix has a humongous market capitalization of US$128.6b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Netflix's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.0 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Looking on the bright side, Netflix boosted its EBIT by a silky 37% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Netflix can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Netflix burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

 

Our View

Neither Netflix's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We think that Netflix's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together.

Doesn't make Netflix a bad investment (I own some) but it's not as robust as the businesses I mentioned in the previous post.

The questions you have to ask about your coronavirus thesis are:

  • Will this actually boost revenue? Or will it just mean existing customers working their existing subscription harder?
  • Will they have to lower prices in response to economic conditions?
  • How long will the Covid lockdown last? Is it a short-term or a long-term impact on Netflix?
  • Does Netflix have enough cash to survive a prolonged downturn?
  • Will Covid push Netflix's costs up on producing new shows / films which are its main differentiator against rivals, cancelling out any benefit from growth in demand?
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  • 1 month later...
On 12/12/2018 at 12:27, tonyh29 said:

my advice as always is 

Buy low  ..Sell high

 

 

 

 

On 16/03/2020 at 17:27, Xela said:

Buy low and sell high. 

Ahem ...

where’s my fee

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On 16/03/2020 at 18:53, KentVillan said:

Have a read of this: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-healthy-171437295.html

Doesn't make Netflix a bad investment (I own some) but it's not as robust as the businesses I mentioned in the previous post.

The questions you have to ask about your coronavirus thesis are:

  • Will this actually boost revenue? Or will it just mean existing customers working their existing subscription harder?
  • Will they have to lower prices in response to economic conditions?
  • How long will the Covid lockdown last? Is it a short-term or a long-term impact on Netflix?
  • Does Netflix have enough cash to survive a prolonged downturn?
  • Will Covid push Netflix's costs up on producing new shows / films which are its main differentiator against rivals, cancelling out any benefit from growth in demand?

And will newer entrants take their market share, Disney for example. 

Being the first and the biggest doesn't mean you will continue to dominate, especially in tech. 

Atari were once the only game in town for Games consoles.

Then Nintendo and Sega ruled the world, who ever saw Microsoft and Sony devastating that duopoly?

Nokia were totally dominant in the mobile phone market.  

Internet explorer dominated Web browsing, Yahoo dominated Web searches.

Friends Reunited, MySpace, say no more. 

Tech moves so fast and seemingly untouchable dominant market leaders seem to fall quicker and quicker all the time. 

Netflix might already be a fallen dinosaur but nobody has even realised yet. 

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On 09/06/2019 at 06:14, imavillan said:

Can anybody recommend a platform to buy and sell shares that wont eat up all of the profits (hopefully) in fees?

Initially i'm looking to build a smallish portfolio investing 1k with 3 maybe 4 different stocks.

I was leaning towards AJ Bell or Hargreaves Lansdown.

 

 

 

My opinion is go with HL, but take advantage of the fact that funds trades are free to trade (but there are fees involved with funds) and invest in funds. With shares, unless you really, REALLY know what you’re doing, you’ll get burned. I ventured into share trading a bit and found that (1) I don’t have anywhere near the capital required to be able to trade shares effectively and this is what the big money investors love because they profit off us nobodies having a crack at the markets and (2) I could never react quick enough to market movements because those in the know have already made their plays.

This is all just from personal experience but unless you really know what you’re doing it’s a very risky move to start share trading on your own. That’s why I prefer funds. You pay their fees and it feels like you take a hit but ultimately that’s the price of having the “experts” (which is expertise plus whatever market knowledge they’re privy to and you aren’t) on your side.

For what it’s worth, I lost about a grand investing in stocks and I consider myself to be pretty educated on the market. I wouldn’t do it again. Unless you have money to lose, or you really know what you’re doing, think hard about it.

It seems so easy to invest in stocks and shares these days, it’s accessible to everyone and everyone thinks “I want a piece of that” when people make a fortune on the market. And that’s where they get you, in my opinion. 

Edited by Spoony
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@Spoony Thanks for this. It had been that long i'd forgotten i posted it !!!!

Up to now i had not done anything about it, so i have avoided the recent falls in value.

I understand exactly where you are coming from and appreciate sharing your experience and yes, there is risk associated but there are also opportunities.

I Have signed up with iWeb as its cheap to trade. £25 to join the £5 per trade.

I have opened up a S&S ISA so i have taken the plunge. I will also be investing in Low Cost Index Funds. My intention is to build a smallish portfolio with established companies taking advantage of the fall in share prices. History tells us that the footsie will recover and prices will go higher again once this madness is over.

I see this as a 5 year plan to get a better return from my money than it sitting in a bank.

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