Going Under ?

[Eastie]

1 minute ago, richp999 said:

Interesting interview on talksport just now with Simon Jordan.. Always liked him, talks a lot of sense.

Talking about Villa's situation, he clearly knows someone high up at villa but would reveal sources... Probably wyness or someone similar.

He said Villa won't be going into administration, but will need to sort out the wage bill, as we all know.

Said HMRC can be dealt with, and a threat of a winding up order was quite common and usually the first shot they use to concentrate your mind on paying ; he said they can usually be paid over a longer period once you have done a deal with them.

However he suggested we will *have* to sell at least Grealish and Kodjia - said he knew for a fact from friends within the game that people were already prepared to put in bids for them.

So looks like we will unfortunately lose those too at least, and have to rebuild from there.

Also talked about doing deals with players on large salaries to get them off the wage bill (Richards?) , as if the club did go into administration, their contracts would be voided. Also HMRC wouldn't get any cash.

I would think this is the only 'genuine' information about our current situation, as I suspect he has talked to someone at the club - maybe a way to get out some information to the fans without making a formal statement ? 

Not sure we will get that much for kodjia since his injuries -I’d expect Chester to fetch more than him .

whoever we sell it’s very much a buyers market so expect a knock down fee .

[DaveAV1]

16 minutes ago, Rob182 said:

It's worthless. Tony had to cut a hole in the roof to get Di Matteo's forehead in.

The sunroof model is worth at least 50 quid more. We’re saved!

[Rob182]

24 minutes ago, ViewFromT2 said:

I actually cannot see anything but administration. I'm no expert but even someone handing us £100m doesn't cure the problem does it?

One of 2 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1:

• Xia swallows his pride and sells the club in order to save it

Scenario 2:

• Go into forced administration (by the bank probably) at some point over the summer, most likely next month.
• Club is sold for £1 and debts cleared....hopefully
• Most valuable players sold for peanuts (see Blues for numerous examples)
• Start next season on -12pts with a team consisting of u23 players and the tripe we can't sell over the summer
• Hope and pray they can pick up around 62-66pts which will be needed to stay up, but clearly relegation to league one is very likely if the above comes to pass

I may be a dreamer (I know I'm a dreamer), but I don't think Administration is the only option if Xia stays.

We have assets. As much as it will pain us to sell them, I'd rather we sold players and land in order to keep Aston Villa alive. Our debt issues aren't everlasting. Players contracts will run down, putting us back onto an even footing.

Selling Grealish should bring in £20-£30m, plus the saving on his 20-30k wages. Selling Chester should bring in £10m, plus the saving on his 30k wages. Selling Elphick should bring in £500k, saving 30k p/w wages. Maybe we'll try to sell Elmo for £1m, Lansbury for £1m, Gardner for £300k, Tshibola for £300k or even Kodjia for £5-8m. Saving wages along the way.

Terry cut his contract short by a month, so we're not paying his wages anymore. At the end of June, we'll no longer be paying Bunn (£20k?), Samba (15k?), Hutton (30k?) and Gabby (30k?), as their contracts will have officially ended.

We'll still be lumbered with some high-paid players that we'll unlikely be able to shift (Jedinak, Whelan, McCormack, Richards), but then we do have a number of players capable of keeping a team in the Championship that will be on relatively low, or 'manageable', wages (Steer, Bree, Green, Davis, Hourihane, Bjarnason, Adomah).

If we can plug the holes in the short-term, then by the end of next season, we'll be another year into paying off the remaining transfer fees that we owe, and we can finally bid farewell to Richards, Jedinak and Whelan, who are probably on more than £100k p/w combined. That's one year away. By which point, I would hope that we have a much more respectable set of accounts.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Rob182

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, richp999 said:

Interesting interview on talksport just now with Simon Jordan.. Always liked him, talks a lot of sense.

Talking about Villa's situation, he clearly knows someone high up at villa but wouldn't reveal sources... Probably wyness or someone similar.

He said Villa won't be going into administration, but will need to sort out the wage bill, as we all know.

Said HMRC can be dealt with, and a threat of a winding up order was quite common and usually the first shot they use to concentrate your mind on paying ; he said they can usually be paid over a longer period once you have done a deal with them.

However he suggested we will *have* to sell at least Grealish and Kodjia - said he knew for a fact from friends within the game that people were already prepared to put in bids for them.

So looks like we will unfortunately lose those two at least, and have to rebuild from there.

Also talked about doing deals with players on large salaries to get them off the wage bill (Richards?) , as if the club did go into administration, their contracts would be voided. Also HMRC wouldn't get any cash.

I would think this is the only 'genuine' information about our current situation, as I suspect he has talked to someone at the club - maybe a way to get out some information to the fans without making a formal statement ? 

I always like to hear from people like Simon Jordan. Yes, they can have some slightly bonkers opinions but they have a freshening honesty and not afraid about being sued for what they say. Like Joey Barton in that respect too.

[A'Villan]

Okay this is obviously a lot worse than I thought.

Beggars belief.

And we were calling for Wolves to be investigated for compromising the integrity of the game?

1 minute ago, richp999 said:

Interesting interview on talksport just now with Simon Jordan.. Always liked him, talks a lot of sense.

Talking about Villa's situation, he clearly knows someone high up at villa but would reveal sources... Probably wyness or someone similar.

He said Villa won't be going into administration, but will need to sort out the wage bill, as we all know.

Said HMRC can be dealt with, and a threat of a winding up order was quite common and usually the first shot they use to concentrate your mind on paying ; he said they can usually be paid over a longer period once you have done a deal with them.

However he suggested we will *have* to sell at least Grealish and Kodjia - said he knew for a fact from friends within the game that people were already prepared to put in bids for them.

So looks like we will unfortunately lose those too at least, and have to rebuild from there.

Also talked about doing deals with players on large salaries to get them off the wage bill (Richards?) , as if the club did go into administration, their contracts would be voided. Also HMRC wouldn't get any cash.

I would think this is the only 'genuine' information about our current situation, as I suspect he has talked to someone at the club - maybe a way to get out some information to the fans without making a formal statement ? 

This makes a lot more sense to me then the fears of fighting relegation to League One, admittedly I know nothing of the situation though.

If we were only to lose Kodjia and Grealish, we should still be able to mount a promotion push with the squad we have.

O'Hare comes in for Grealish, we have enough strikers to cover for Kodjia.

[Eastie]

1 minute ago, Rob182 said:

I may be a dreamer (I know I'm a dreamer), but I don't think Administration is the only option if Xia stays.

We have assets. As much as it will pain us to sell them, I'd rather we sold players and land in order to keep Aston Villa alive. Our debt issues aren't everlasting. Players contracts will run down, putting us back onto an even footing.

Selling Grealish should bring in £20-£30m, plus the saving on his 20-30k wages. Selling Chester should bring in £10m, plus the saving on his 30k wages. Selling Elphick should bring in £500k, saving 30k p/w wages. Maybe we'll try to sell Elmo for £1m, Lansbury for £1m, Gardner for £300k, Tshibola for £300k or even Kodjia for £5-8m. Saving wages along the way.

Terry cut his contract short by a month, so we're not paying his wages anymore. At the end of June, we'll no longer be paying Bunn (£20k?), Samba (15k?), Hutton (30k?) and Gabby (30k?), as their contracts will have officially ended.

We'll still be lumbered with some high-paid players that we'll unlikely be able to shift (Jedinak, Whelan, McCormack, Richards), but then we do have a number of players capable of keeping a team in the Championship that will be on relatively low, or 'manageable', wages (Steer, Bree, Green, Davis, Hourihane, Bjarnason, Adomah).

If we can plug the holes in the short-term, then by the end of next season, we'll be another year into paying off the remaining transfer fees that we owe, and then at the end of next season we can finally bid farewell to Richards, Jedinak and Whelan, who are probably on more than £100k p/w combined. That's one year away. By which point, I would hope that we have a much more respectable set of accounts.

I think that’s just prolonging the inevitable - likely we will struggle to avoid relagation if we sell our best players and go with with a youth team approach - the debts will continue and I think best for all if xia accepts the game  is up and we start the slow long rebuild 

[VillaAlex]

I think Kodjia will get a lot of interest from abroad, possibly countries like Turkey. So I don't see us having any issues selling him. Grealish again, but we're probably going to get robbed.

[Eastie]

1 minute ago, A'Villan said:

Okay this is obviously a lot worse than I thought.

Beggars belief.

And we were calling for Wolves to be investigated for compromising the integrity of the game?

This makes a lot more sense to me then the fears of fighting relegation to League One, admittedly I know nothing of the situation though.

If we were only to lose Kodjia and Grealish, we should still be able to mount a promotion push with the squad we have.

O'Hare comes in for Grealish, we have enough strikers to cover for Kodjia.

I think any hope of promotion pushes is pie in the sky mate personally .

you say only lose Grealish and kodjia but don’t forget we’ve already lost terry , Hutton , snoddy, Johnstone ,onamah, grabban , axel . 

‘That’s more than half the first  team - and I’d be amazed if Chester wasn’t sold too .

as for o hare - he has a very bad knee ligament injury and will be out 3 months at best . 

[hippo]

From what I have read - Xia has to consent to administration. The only way we go in administration if he doesn't - is via a HMRC winding up order - or court order - presumably from people owed money.

The more positive (lol) spin this morning is that we just have to dump anyone on a high wage - that could take another 2 seasons.

The concern is that Xia doesn't seem to have much idea is now running the club - and is unlikely to employ another CEO IMO 

 

[LoughboroughLion]

I don't understand this assertion that we will definitely have to sell assets. To me, the wage bill is the prominent issue.

I think it's probably true that the reason we're in this mess is because we were reliant on a monthly Xia top-up of £Xm per month and since this stopped we has sudden cash flow issues. This would be expected given the going concern basis in the May accounts was only confirmed by PwC with reference to a letter of support from Recon.

But if Xia is still happy to put in this monthly top up - and can - then we will be fine. Maybe I'm naïve in thinking this is possible?

[wilko154]

4 minutes ago, A'Villan said:

If we were only to lose Kodjia and Grealish, we should still be able to mount a promotion push with the squad we have.

O'Hare comes in for Grealish, we have enough strikers to cover for Kodjia.

I don't think we would, our squad isn't that strong and Kodjia being out only proven goalscorer and Grealish best 'footballer' will severly hinder us. Plus we are likely to lost a few more first team players before the window closes with no additions.

[ViewFromT2]

1 minute ago, Rob182 said:

I may be a dreamer (I know I'm a dreamer), but I don't think Administration is the only option if Xia stays.

We have assets. As much as it will pain us to sell them, I'd rather we sold players and land in order to keep Aston Villa alive. Our debt issues aren't everlasting. Players contracts will run down, putting us back onto an even footing.

Selling Grealish should bring in £20-£30m, plus the saving on his 20-30k wages. Selling Chester should bring in £10m, plus the saving on his 30k wages. Selling Elphick should bring in £500k, saving 30k p/w wages. Maybe we'll try to sell Elmo for £1m, Lansbury for £1m, Gardner for £300k, Tshibola for £300k or even Kodjia for £5-8m. Saving wages along the way.

Terry cut his contract short by a month, so we're not paying his wages anymore. At the end of June, we'll no longer be paying Bunn (£20k?), Samba (15k?), Hutton (30k?) and Gabby (30k?), as their contracts will have officially ended.

We'll still be lumbered with some high-paid players that we'll unlikely be able to shift (Jedinak, Whelan, McCormack, Richards), but then we do have a number of players capable of keeping a team in the Championship that will be on relatively low, or 'manageable', wages (Steer, Bree, Green, Davis, Hourihane, Bjarnason, Adomah).

If we can plug the holes in the short-term, then by the end of next season, we'll be another year into paying off the remaining transfer fees that we owe, and then at the end of next season we can finally bid farewell to Richards, Jedinak and Whelan, who are probably on more than £100k p/w combined. That's one year away. By which point, I would hope that we have a much more respectable set of accounts.

Well that's a far more positive outlook than I can envisage and cannot argue with your thought process. Good stuff!

My only concern would be that if we are losing £5m per month, the problems have to run deeper than players wages?

Also, I fear we won't get close to a fair market value for the likes of Grealish because the buying club hold all the cards. That's why I mentioned Blues, look at the players they have had to sell down the years due to their circumstance, Demarai Gray, Redmond, Butland were all worth at least double what they actually got for them at the time.

I fear we won't get more than £15m for Grealish, whereas he is worth closer to £30m. Chester will go for around £5m at best and I doubt we'll get more than £5m for Kodija either.

I can see someone taking a chance on McCormack for £2-£3m, maybe in Scotland? His wages should put everyone off off but as we know, there is no sense in football!

We are fortunate to have enough young 'uns there to hopefully keep us competitive but unfortunately we have a manager that will ultimately ruin them!

[richp999]

1 minute ago, A'Villan said:

Okay this is obviously a lot worse than I thought.

Beggars belief.

And we were calling for Wolves to be investigated for compromising the integrity of the game?

This makes a lot more sense to me then the fears of fighting relegation to League One, admittedly I know nothing of the situation though.

If we were only to lose Kodjia and Grealish, we should still be able to mount a promotion push with the squad we have.

O'Hare comes in for Grealish, we have enough strikers to cover for Kodjia.

My thoughts too.. Didn't want to loose grealish at all, but sounds like we are being 'prepped' for his departure.

O'Hare would step up into his place, not a bad thing, I always thought he looked pretty decent ; shame about his injury though - has come at just the wrong time for us. And we already have too many strikers

So probably not quite the doomsday scenario ; Jordan was even suggesting we could still mount some kind of promotion push.  I don't know but it sounded to me like he'd had quite a long chat about it with someone definitely ITK!!

[hippo]

4 minutes ago, Eastie said:

I think that’s just prolonging the inevitable - likely we will struggle to avoid relagation if we sell our best players and go with with a youth team approach - the debts will continue and I think best for all if xia accepts the game  is up and we start the slow long rebuild 

All except Xia 

[Eastie]

2 minutes ago, VillaAlex said:

I think Kodjia will get a lot of interest from abroad, possibly countries like Turkey. So I don't see us having any issues selling him. Grealish again, but we're probably going to get robbed.

Kodjia £8m at best in my opinion due to our finances and his recent injury problems . 

‘We will be stuck with McCormack and hogan unless we take a huge hit on hogan as I can’t see us getting more than £3m for him 

[hippo]

1 minute ago, VERB27 said:

I don't understand this assertion that we will definitely have to sell assets. To me, the wage bill is the prominent issue.

I think it's probably true that the reason we're in this mess is because we were reliant on a monthly Xia top-up of £Xm per month and since this stopped we has sudden cash flow issues. This would be expected given the going concern basis in the May accounts was only confirmed by PwC with reference to a letter of support from Recon.

But if Xia is still happy to put in this monthly top up - and can - then we will be fine. Maybe I'm naïve in thinking this is possible?

Yes - but it seems Xia is having problems with that.

[Eastie]

2 minutes ago, hippo said:

All except Xia 

He is only prolonging the inevitable though for me mate and the sooner he’s out of it the better .

[Rob182]

2 minutes ago, Eastie said:

I think that’s just prolonging the inevitable - likely we will struggle to avoid relagation if we sell our best players and go with with a youth team approach - the debts will continue and I think best for all if xia accepts the game  is up and we start the slow long rebuild 

I disagree. It's not prolonging the inevitable if our debts are reduced with every player that is sold and every new season that passes. It's managing debt to the point that you can rebuild without having to literally sell EVERY asset via administration.

Let's imagine the scenario that I mentioned, but we keep Elphick, a squad of the following players would be able to avoid relegation, in my opinion: Steer, Sarkic, Bree, Taylor, Elphick, New young/cheap/free CB, Bedeau, Suliman, Hourihane, Whelan, Jedinak, Doyle-Hayes, Bjarnason, Green, Adomah, O'Hare, New young/ cheap/ free winger, Davis, McCormack, and Hogan.

[Jareth]

19 minutes ago, richp999 said:

 interview on talksport just now with Simon Jordan..

Well blow me down, what are the chances Simon Jordan has something to say about the inner workings of Villa...

[cb_82]

Lets be clear, O'hare is miles off where Grealish is - Talk of him being the replacement is laughable