HanoiVillan Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 6 hours ago, TrentVilla said: The local election results over night look to me to be a clear indication of what is coming in the GE in a few weeks. 6 hours ago, markavfc40 said: Possibly. I just heard some analysis from John Curtice, so called expert pollster the BBC use, and he said the results at present would point to a seven point gain for the Tories which would be nowhere the landslide the polls have predicted. What they do show is that UKIP are being wiped out and their vote it seems is going to the Tories. I would follow what John Curtice has said here IMO. Obviously these results aren't great for Labour, but I don't actually think they are as bad as expected. In any case, local elections - even close to a general election - are not a brilliant guide. In 1983 Labour were only three points behind in local elections and then got smashed in the general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, darrenm said: They hardly did anything round by me either. But Wales does seem to be having a massive shift to the right. They voted largely for Brexit when it's really not in their best interests. It's telling that Welsh towns have come off the worst from the shift to the right after the Falklands. So they have a lot to be angry about. The angry voice seems to follow the populist agenda. Wales is getting older at a faster rate than the rest of the UK (thanks to internal migration within the UK, primarily) so it's no real surprise it's trending right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I think it's a little bit more nuanced than an angry voice following populists. A little bit. If you look at where the votes and the seats have gone, in round numbers right now Labour have lost 100, the majority to the tories, but a significant number to Plaid and Independents. If you look at those independents many of them are ex Labour, some have been on tv and radio this morning saying it's a place holder until Labour sorts out its shit. The Plaid ones also aren't 'populist' in many cases. Locally I know five Plaid councillors that have all just been elected, only one of them speaks Welsh, for of the five are decidedly mute on independence. They just want a broadly left party that is actually active in the community. They don't want freedom for Ponty, they want action on street lighting and the local incinerator and 3G sports pitches. The island is as non welsh speaking independence as you could see anywhere, they've just voted Plaid. Less angry, more bemused by Labour's current state. See my earlier comments about no placards, no leaflets and no representation at a 1,000 person family orientated event in the centre of town a week before a local election. Fair enough. Have the council elections been treated as a bit of a sideshow before the big event? With the big push about getting young people to register to get the left vote and trying to steer the GE narrative away from brexit, I wonder if the council elections have been forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_c Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, darrenm said: Interesting. Was it the north and south that voted out? Think it was largely south, bit they have much bigger population centres. My area has a large farming and forestry industry and they weren't stupid enough to vote away the EU grants that give them so much money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Gywnedd voted remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Tories are going to take the Mayoral election in the Tees Valley, based on the idea that the Conservative candidate thinks he's going to buy Durham / Tees Valley Airport! Seems the way to get elected is to tell massive lies, you can't possibly follow through on. We'll give the NHS £350m a week. I'll build a wall. I'll buy the airport. On that note... I'm going to run as an independent in the GE. Vote for me, and I'll give everyone a helicopter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, dAVe80 said: Tories are going to take the Mayoral election in the Tees Valley, based on the idea that the Conservative candidate thinks he's going to buy Durham / Tees Valley Airport! Seems the way to get elected is to tell massive lies, you can't possibly follow through on. We'll give the NHS £350m a week. I'll build a wall. I'll buy the airport. On that note... I'm going to run as an independent in the GE. Vote for me, and I'll give everyone a helicopter. *once elected* "I didn't REALLY mean a helicopter. I used 'helicopter' as a metaphor for happiness." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: *once elected* "I didn't REALLY mean a helicopter. I used 'helicopter' as a metaphor for happiness." Sshh! Save that, till 5 mins after I've been elected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, darrenm said: Fair enough. Have the council elections been treated as a bit of a sideshow before the big event? With the big push about getting young people to register to get the left vote and trying to steer the GE narrative away from brexit, I wonder if the council elections have been forgotten. Vale of Glamorgan is traditionally a bit of a swing seat. We've alternated tory / labour a few times in my lifetime. Vale of Glam is south and voted remain. I'm interested in politics and I'm sort of a leftie. I have struggled to find out who the Labour GE candidate is. I have since found out it's somebody called Camilla Beaven. To illustrate the lack of labour presence: I've just checked a few labour twitter feeds I follow, a couple of local councillors and the local assembly member. Accounts that are traditionally busy and usually have multiple posts per day. From their combined tweets since 23rd April I have learnt the following: 27th April - changes to bin collections on bank holiday monday 27th April - some kid collected two bags of rubbish from a local park 28th April - Jane Hutt gave a talk at 'Uganda Day' I'm not seeing a big push to a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaglint Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, dAVe80 said: Tories are going to take the Mayoral election in the Tees Valley, based on the idea that the Conservative candidate thinks he's going to buy Durham / Tees Valley Airport! Seems the way to get elected is to tell massive lies, you can't possibly follow through on. We'll give the NHS £350m a week. I'll build a wall. I'll buy the airport. On that note... I'm going to run as an independent in the GE. Vote for me, and I'll give everyone a helicopter. I remember going to lecture on Political Science in the early 2000s it was about the erosion of trust in UK politics. It seems that fast forward 15years the politicos have decided that they won't be trusted either way so whoever bluffs best wins. Edited May 5, 2017 by villaglint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Hope all the UKIP blow-ins create a right mess inside the already "whatever it takes" Tories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coda Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Tory Mayor for West Midz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, coda said: Tory Mayor for West Midz. I'm surprised how close this vote was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just been wandering through all the voting returns for all the local wards in my council. There was only a single UKIP candidate across all areas and he lost by a mile, getting just 78 votes. Annoyingly, he was 3 votes ahead of the candidate for the Pirate Party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted May 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted May 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm surprised how close this vote was. Given how much he spent, certainly shouldn't have been that close. But then the Midlands is massively split politically. Areas of deprivation a few minutes from wealth everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazzap24 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, dAVe80 said: Tories are going to take the Mayoral election in the Tees Valley, based on the idea that the Conservative candidate thinks he's going to buy Durham / Tees Valley Airport! Seems the way to get elected is to tell massive lies, you can't possibly follow through on. We'll give the NHS £350m a week. I'll build a wall. I'll buy the airport. On that note... I'm going to run as an independent in the GE. Vote for me, and I'll give everyone a helicopter. This is 100% why they keep winning. Its not based on performance, it can't be - even the people voting for them can't honestly believe they are doing a 'good job'. They are just much, much better at lying and they somehow manage to convince people. I mean just look and listen to May, she's an absolute train wreck, but is getting away with it and is on track to actually to increase the Tory majority. It's insane, but also shows what you need to do to win. Edited May 5, 2017 by wazzap24 Apple spellcheck is the work of Satan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KHV Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, coda said: Tory Mayor for West Midz. Great result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Mixed night for UKIP. They lost control of all their council seats but gained control of the Conservative Party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 hour ago, coda said: Tory Mayor for West Midz. Should do wonders for tourism from France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 (edited) If Corbyn stepped down now and the Labour membership replaced him with somebody that isn't John McDonnell or Diane Abbott, they'd instantly give themselves a much better chance in June. I wouldn't be surprised if many Labour MPs, even a number on the left, will be trying to talk Corbyn into standing down now. Don't blame them either. Edited May 5, 2017 by Mantis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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