Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

21 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Going OT but I can assure you that this factoid is met with much amusement in the DPRK , where it's acknowledged that Kom Jong Il has never played a round of golf in his life   , he also didn't score a perfect 300 at bowling either and no such claims are made inside the country.

it may be a case of who cares, but equally the truth is always more valuable than made up shit 

The golf story originally came via an Australian journalist who visited the golf club and was informed of the story by a local  , the journalist himself acknowledges that he thought the local "shit himself" as there were security guys everywhere and he made the whole story up on the spot in case he inadvertently said something negative about the leader 

 

 

Thanks Kim. You see EVERYTHING 

 

 

[It's Your Round]

46 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Going OT but I can assure you that this factoid is met with much amusement in the DPRK , where it's acknowledged that Kom Jong Il has never played a round of golf in his life   , he also didn't score a perfect 300 at bowling either and no such claims are made inside the country.

it may be a case of who cares, but equally the truth is always more valuable than made up shit 

The golf story originally came via an Australian journalist who visited the golf club and was informed of the story by a local  , the journalist himself acknowledges that he thought the local "shit himself" as there were security guys everywhere and he made the whole story up on the spot in case he inadvertently said something negative about the leader 

 

Oh right, next you’ll be telling me they also didn’t find a unicorn lair? 

[bickster]

A new smoking incident in Crimea

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Oh my god. Imagine if you had set out from home a few seconds earlier that day 

Terrorism really is the word for it.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

15 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Terrorism really is the word for it.

It's hard to be positive about it all but Terrorist's don't usually come out on top,  especially against the US / UK working in the background.  It never ends well for Terrorist's but Russia is the Terrorist state of such sheer size it's difficult to see a way to win.  Russia will lose,  the latest multiple missile launches are IMO the last tantrum,  the skies are almost safe.  The German SAM's are working at only 100% at the moment ,  it flies it dies.  They are done on the ground.  30 Days for the troops in Ukraine.  They won't be able to stand it for much longer,  they are been blown to literal bits. 

Ukraine launched 6,000 155mm Artillery shells on the Orc's in 1 day. earlier this week for example.  In terms of weapons,  Russia is on a fine line now. 

They need enough troops and hardware to protect itself from other countries,  at a certain point they will become a sitting duck and they know it.  It's going to be close and nasty but I feel they are almost done.

 

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[villa89]

12 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Russia is the Terrorist state of such sheer size it's difficult to see a way to win.  Russia will lose, 

I wouldn't be so sure. Could end in a ceasefire where Russia gets time to rebuild and sell oil/gas to help the world overcome the recession that's coming next year. The news cycle moves on, remember covid? That used to be a thing. People get tired of wars awful quick, especially when they are struggling to pay for a week in Magaluf. Longterm I think Ukraine will be at best a mess for the next decade or might even breakup with the western side entering the EU and the eastern block and Crimea being an independent Russian protectorate that Russia will fully absorb in the long term. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

26 minutes ago, villa89 said:

sell oil/gas

They can,  but not to the EU and only at a specific price point,  also,  transport of goods.  They sold to the EU becasue it was the easiest route by far.  Its basically free money.  Not anymore.  Its all really complex for Russia.

They need to sell oil at 80-90 dollars a barrel for it to start being worth it.  They are getting 63 ish from India / China (I think, not 100% on that).

We assume Russia has the technological expertise and tool / parts to keep it all pumping like a Rolls Royce,  they don't.  Only Western knowhow got it running and only Western input will keep it flowing.  Oil / Gas is appx 21% of their GDP.  It will be lucky to be 12% next year.  Imagine that across all industries that are left (Minus 1000 Western companies (Eg IKEA).  Watch and wait,  things will start falling from the sky and popping valves soon enough. 

They can't hide it either from space for the Oil / Gas +(Plumes of gas as they can't store it) 

They can't store any of it so have to sell , sell , sell every day with no hiccups or little problems.  The sanctions will get them and get them bad.  Just need to wait until February.  

They can't turn off the gas / oil.  They are F******

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

37 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I wouldn't be so sure. Could end in a ceasefire where Russia gets time to rebuild and sell oil/gas to help the world overcome the recession that's coming next year. The news cycle moves on, remember covid? That used to be a thing. People get tired of wars awful quick, especially when they are struggling to pay for a week in Magaluf. Longterm I think Ukraine will be at best a mess for the next decade or might even breakup with the western side entering the EU and the eastern block and Crimea being an independent Russian protectorate that Russia will fully absorb in the long term. 

It can't be that Russia gains from this.  If they do then everyone will have a go.

[ender4]

2 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

I like the calmness of the driver.  

No problem, I think I’ll just take a different route to work today.

[fightoffyour]

20 hours ago, It's Your Round said:

Pfft that’s nothing… Kim Jong Il hit 11 holes in one the first time he played golf. Beat that, orange boy! 

With a single ball? Impressive stuff.

[Mr_Dogg]

4 hours ago, villa89 said:

I wouldn't be so sure. Could end in a ceasefire where Russia gets time to rebuild and sell oil/gas to help the world overcome the recession that's coming next year. The news cycle moves on, remember covid? That used to be a thing. People get tired of wars awful quick, especially when they are struggling to pay for a week in Magaluf. Longterm I think Ukraine will be at best a mess for the next decade or might even breakup with the western side entering the EU and the eastern block and Crimea being an independent Russian protectorate that Russia will fully absorb in the long term. 

The whole point of this war from a Ukraine POV is to stop this happening and if won't happen.

[villakram]

22 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Manufactured where...

[villa89]

1 hour ago, Mr_Dogg said:

The whole point of this war from a Ukraine POV is to stop this happening and if won't happen.

The point of the war from the Ukraine point of view was not to have the entire country subsumed into Russia and become part of Russia. That was Russia's plan in the first place. If it comes down to it in the next 12 months I would expect Ukraine might give up territory in the east, and possibly Crimea (Although NATO might want them to hold that), in exchange for benefits like EU membership and maybe even NATO membership. I don't see a full victory happening in the next 12 months where Russia is forced out of the whole country. 

 

I could be wrong of course. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by villa89

[magnkarl]

14 minutes ago, villa89 said:

The point of the war from the Ukraine point of view was not to have the entire country subsumed into Russia and become part of Russia. That's was Russia's plan in the first place. If it comes down to it in the next 12 months I would expect Ukraine might give up territory in the east, and possibly Crimea (Although NATO might want them to hold that), in exchange for benefits like EU membership and maybe even NATO membership. I don't see a full victory happening in the next 12 months where Russia is forced out of the whole country. 

 

I could be wrong of course. 

I'd be interested in where you'd think Russia will be able to hold their ground? They lost their strongest defensive perimetre around Kherson. It took them 6 months in good weather to build.

Drone dropped VOG grenades are tearing their foxholes to shreds, tanks are getting absolutely demolished by Stugnas, their airforce can't fly sorties as they are shot down by Western AA systems, they're running out of missiles and the few remaining are mostly shot down, there's increasing opposition to the general idiocy that is mobilisation and the outfitting of said mobilised troops, they no longer have range advantage in artillery which is crippling their supply lines. Ukraine has the tech advantage as well as the man power advantage.

I don't see how Russia holds on for more than maybe a few more months. Donetsk and Luhansk has very few combat able men left, there'll be no one left to defend the cities once the Ukrainian army decides it's time to push in that direction.

Russia and its armed forces are the definition of a paper tiger. The tiger has also been told specifically by its handler that it's not allowed to use the only alternative they have left to avoid defeat (nukes).

Edited November 17, 2022 by magnkarl

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I could be wrong of course. 

EU and NATO membership cannot be part of a Peace negotiation. Your suggested outcome isn't possible as the EU and NATO aren't at war with Ukraine, not only that but both organisations have strict membership rules.

NATO can't allow Ukraine to join whilst they have territorial disputes. Ukraine will never cede their land to Russia  but for peace to hold Ukraine must be in NATO to have the protection of the nuclear umbrella

This idea that there will be talks and that Ukraine will accept loss of territory, is very much a talking point that Russia and it's agents are pushing. It will not happen.

Russia needs to be completely out of Ukraine to the 1991 border and Ukraine needs to be in NATO,. It is the only way lasting peace can happen. 

[HolteExile]

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire/ peacetalks with the immediate prospect of losing land. 

But one way it *could* be sold (to Russia) is if Crimea immediately reverts to Ukraine now (or attains neutral status)- but there is a genuine referendum on sovereignty a number of years down the track. 

Crimea was viewed as different even pre 2014. I don't have the reliable stats to hand - I couldn't say it was the majority. But there was always a significant pro Russian population there.  Since 2014 there region has obviously been Russified further.  Many of a pro Ukrainian (or Tatar/other) persuasion have left. 

A genuine referendum that occurs in say 6-10 years offers the chance to those so inclined to return, Russian arrivals since to 2014 to scarper home and provide a more accurate result. No concessions on Donbass; other than the rights of minorities and Russian language rights to be protected by law with the UN/ EU or whoever as guarantors. 

I accept this will be moot if Ukraine push on now and continue to make the gains they have. 

More power to them if they achieve it. 

 

[avfc1982am]

Ukraine cannot go back on what Zelenskky has been preaching for the last 9 months or so. If he does, he loses credibility in Ukraine and the government will fall at some point. Forget what the West want and look at things from a Ukrainian standpoint and you'll realise too much water has passed under the bridge this time. Ukrainian's, especially those displaced, and those with family casualties are not going to accept compromises. And why should they. 

[magnkarl]

13 hours ago, HolteExile said:

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire/ peacetalks with the immediate prospect of losing land. 

But one way it *could* be sold (to Russia) is if Crimea immediately reverts to Ukraine now (or attains neutral status)- but there is a genuine referendum on sovereignty a number of years down the track. 

Crimea was viewed as different even pre 2014. I don't have the reliable stats to hand - I couldn't say it was the majority. But there was always a significant pro Russian population there.  Since 2014 there region has obviously been Russified further.  Many of a pro Ukrainian (or Tatar/other) persuasion have left. 

A genuine referendum that occurs in say 6-10 years offers the chance to those so inclined to return, Russian arrivals since to 2014 to scarper home and provide a more accurate result. No concessions on Donbass; other than the rights of minorities and Russian language rights to be protected by law with the UN/ EU or whoever as guarantors. 

I accept this will be moot if Ukraine push on now and continue to make the gains they have. 

More power to them if they achieve it. 

 

The issue with Crimea is that both Stalin and Putin has deported and ethnically cleansed as much as 200.000-500.000 (1945-70) and close to 50.000 (since 2014) Crimean Tatars. A people that have been consistently in favour of being either independent or with Ukraine. Holding a referendum in a place where everyone who would vote for Ukraine has fled, been deported or killed is not a legitimate election.

Some estimates show that close to 50% of the Crimean Tatar population were removed, killed or forced into wars (like they are now) for Russia. It's classed as a genocide, and it's one of the big reasons why Erdogan and Putin aren't better friends.

There's about 2.4 million people in Crimea, most of them are Russians who have come to take land and settle since Russia stole the place in 2014. A vote would be rigged from the get go. It'd be like Israel holding a referendum in a place where they've built settlements and displaced everyone else.

Edited November 18, 2022 by magnkarl

[magnkarl]

I wonder if Putin sees the irony.