Chindie Posted February 22, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: But these oligarchs are known to be ‘in bed’ with the Russian government so is it not fair game? Possibly. But they are also in bed with the British government (London is the Russian money laundering epicentre) so they are basically bulletproof. All the actions we do are theatre in this case. The new harsh sanctions will just be extensions of the ones applied when Crimea was annexed, which harmed Putin so much he... carried on the same as before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Putin isn't stupid he must have a plan to counter these "sanctions" otherwise i dont think he would be stupid enough to just start a bloody war He has been in power for over 20 years and there is nobody who will feel safe enough to give him a counter argument. There are reports that parts of the Russian military are concerned with this massive escalation but they are hardly going to speak out are they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, bickster said: I keep seeing this line being pushed by STWC types, do you have any evidence of this as I've not managed to see any yet? I'm not criticising your overall point but I am genuinely interested to see actual evidence of this particular claim Nothing written down as that would fly in the face of NATO opening its doors to all potential members (including russia), but more that assurances were given. It may be that the west then took advantage of Russia's relative weakness in the early 90s and that there was nothing they would be able to do to repsons; it may be that russia misunderstood the aims of NATO or what they were really advocating. However, there was the "not one inch eastwards" phrase/promise/assurance that the Russians have always hung onto. Quote Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University National Security Archive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: He has been in power for over 20 years and there is nobody who will feel safe enough to give him a counter argument. There are reports that parts of the Russian military are concerned with this massive escalation but they are hardly going to speak out are they. If thats the case maybe a russian coup? Or am i being optimistic? If the military dont agree with this war they need to stop him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chindie said: Possibly. But they are also in bed with the British government (London is the Russian money laundering epicentre) so they are basically bulletproof. All the actions we do are theatre in this case. The new harsh sanctions will just be extensions of the ones applied when Crimea was annexed, which harmed Putin so much he... carried on the same as before. I don’t disagree with any of that, I did find it mildly amusing / tragic that we threatened to take away their ‘golden visa’ route to UK citizenship recently (which can be bought with a £2M investment in UK infrastruct….I mean a £2M donation to the Conservative party) as if it’s okay that that’s a thing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 37 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: But these oligarchs are known to be ‘in bed’ with the Russian government so is it not fair game? There's quite a lot of rhetorical slippage between 'all Russian nationals' (your first post) and 'these oligarchs' (your second). Obviously, not all Russian nationals in the UK are oligarchs, indeed only a very small proportion are. The second point I would make here is that 'in bed with the Russian government' is an evocative image, but not a legal designation. What we have are a system of sanctions against individuals, organisations and companies that are connected to various parts of the Russian state. Now there are *a lot* of problems with sanctions in terms of their being counter-productive and hard to remove, but they do exist. If what you're really saying is something like 'I bet they will exclude various people from sanctions because they eg like to pay the Conservative party for the opportunity to play a game of tennis against Boris Johnson on a regular basis' then sure, that's probably true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: If thats the case maybe a russian coup? Or am i being optimistic? If the military dont agree with this war they need to stop him Optimistic. He will only go out of the Kremlin in a box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 China are very quiet in this. They are Russias biggest ally aren’t they? Shouldn’t the rest of the world be pissing in China’s ear about getting this stopped. China’s official line is that they are against military action. If they formally condemn this behaviour and informally tell Putin they won’t get involved in any conflicts then he can’t fight the world on is own… can he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: There's quite a lot of rhetorical slippage between 'all Russian nationals' (your first post) and 'these oligarchs' (your second). Obviously, not all Russian nationals in the UK are oligarchs, indeed only a very small proportion are. The second point I would make here is that 'in bed with the Russian government' is an evocative image, but not a legal designation. What we have are a system of sanctions against individuals, organisations and companies that are connected to various parts of the Russian state. Now there are *a lot* of problems with sanctions in terms of their being counter-productive and hard to remove, but they do exist. If what you're really saying is something like 'I bet they will exclude various people from sanctions because they eg like to pay the Conservative party for the opportunity to play a game of tennis against Boris Johnson on a regular basis' then sure, that's probably true. Okay, to clarify my initial point - I’m not talking about every single Russian person that’s in the UK, I’m specifically talking the likes of Abramovich and Usmanov, high profile, high wealth with significant stakes in significant interests such as football clubs and elite properties. These people should be able to wield some level of influence in the Russian government and so if we make life difficult for them then it stands to reason they may make life difficult for Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 22, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: But these oligarchs are known to be ‘in bed’ with the Russian government so is it not fair game? Not all of them. There are quite a number of anti-Putin Russians in the UK, rich ones too. So freezing all/any Russian held assets would be counter productive. Where you are right (IMO) is that there is a significant amount of money laundering going on in the UK, via property and so on. Targetted (at Putin's allies and cronies) steps are necessary. Similar applies in Switzerland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 22, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Genie said: China are very quiet in this. They are Russias biggest ally aren’t they? Shouldn’t the rest of the world be pissing in China’s ear about getting this stopped. China’s official line is that they are against military action. If they formally condemn this behaviour and informally tell Putin they won’t get involved in any conflicts then he can’t fight the world on is own… can he? China is in an awkward position. They are happy for Russia to thumb its nose at the West as it is a step towards a power rebalance. They aren't happy because their close ally basically encouraging secession from another country asks awkward questions about their own issues with significant regions that may not view themselves as 'China', while Beijing does. But they also quite like the idea of forcibly taking places they do think are China... But they don't like armed conflict much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Lavrov has announced that Ukraine is not a sovereign state or entitled to sovereignty because it doesn’t politically represent all of the people on its territory (can’t be long until he gives the ‘Ukrainians are sub-humans’ speech). Macron must be feeling a bit daft this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: Okay, to clarify my initial point - I’m not talking about every single Russian person that’s in the UK, I’m specifically talking the likes of Abramovich and Usmanov, high profile, high wealth with significant stakes in significant interests such as football clubs and elite properties. These people should be able to wield some level of influence in the Russian government and so if we make life difficult for them then it stands to reason they may make life difficult for Putin. I take your point, but I fear it's not right. In a British context, it definitely would be; British political parties rely on donations and goodwill from rich businessmen, so British businessmen can influence British politicians. But Putin does not rely on Russian businessmen, *they* rely on *him*, both for the important 'not to be poisoned' scenario (as we have established that we cannot prevent every instance of Russian security services poisoning their people on our territory), and also not to just seize their Russia-based assets. Truthfully, I doubt the likes of Abramovic and Usmanov would be of much use whatsoever. Edited February 22, 2022 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swerbs Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Scholz has pulled the plug on Nord Stream 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 22, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Swerbs said: Scholz has pulled the plug on Nord Stream 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Genie said: Stop buying their oil or gas is the obvious one, with obvious problems too. 21 minutes ago, Swerbs said: Scholz has pulled the plug on Nord Stream 2. Its a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, Swerbs said: Scholz has pulled the plug on Nord Stream 2. Good, but not sure it makes any difference at this point. The purpose of the pipeline was to cut Ukraine out of the transit network and make it more vulnerable to Russian coercion. I'd say that ship has sailed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, blandy said: Not all of them. There are quite a number of anti-Putin Russians in the UK, rich ones too. So freezing all/any Russian held assets would be counter productive. Where you are right (IMO) is that there is a significant amount of money laundering going on in the UK, via property and so on. Targetted (at Putin's allies and cronies) steps are necessary. Similar applies in Switzerland. Austria, Italy and Hungary have watered down the EU sanctions response - not the first time those three have been on the wrong side of trouble in Europe. Will be v interesting to see how far Johnson goes later on, sanctions being an area where he really can take a different approach post-Brexit. FWIW I hope he goes all in immediately. Break open all the shell companies, find the UBOs, seize assets, property where it’s connected to Putin. It’s a great opportunity to cut the cancer out without special interests getting in the way, and get some payback for Gareth Williams in 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 42 minutes ago, Awol said: Austria, Italy and Hungary have watered down the EU sanctions response - not the first time those three have been on the wrong side of trouble in Europe. Will be v interesting to see how far Johnson goes later on, sanctions being an area where he really can take a different approach post-Brexit. FWIW I hope he goes all in immediately. Break open all the shell companies, find the UBOs, seize assets, property where it’s connected to Putin. It’s a great opportunity to cut the cancer out without special interests getting in the way, and get some payback for Gareth Williams in 2010. The biggest thing we could do in terms of sanctions would be to cut their access to the Swift banking network effectively cutting them off from international markets. Unfortunately London and the UK economy being what it is I think we'll be the obstacle to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 22, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Demitri_C said: Putin isn't stupid he must have a plan to counter these "sanctions" otherwise i dont think he would be stupid enough to just start a bloody war Maybe, just maybe he is on the way out and wants to go out with a bang being remembered as the man who started the process of reuniting Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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