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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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17 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

I suspect that one chap won’t be on the next episode. 

Yeah, brave guy. I don't think the tactic of blaming advisors for Putins actions will save his neck. 

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The Russian finance ministry has apparently reserved 362 billion rubles for dead soldiers so far. DW is reporting that the finance ministry has confirmed that they've issued over 48000 such 'widow payments'. Ukrainian estimates are really not far off when it comes to KIA of Russians.

This makes this conflict almost 5 times as costly as the Afghanistan-Soviet war for Russia, and if you include the 2/3 ratio of wounded/MIA it means that Russia has likely lost 150.000 active soldiers. Ouch.

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When this is all over, and it’s a long way from that yet, I wonder how many of the reputed 1m+ people that have been forcibly taken to Russia will make it back to Ukraine. Some have already made it and have told their stories, really grim shades of WW2 Nazi operations. 
 

 

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6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The Russian finance ministry has apparently reserved 362 billion rubles for dead soldiers so far. DW is reporting that the finance ministry has confirmed that they've issued over 48000 such 'widow payments'. Ukrainian estimates are really not far off when it comes to KIA of Russians.

This makes this conflict almost 5 times as costly as the Afghanistan-Soviet war for Russia, and if you include the 2/3 ratio of wounded/MIA it means that Russia has likely lost 150.000 active soldiers. Ouch.

That figure won't include DNR / LLR or Wagner Group etc. So the Ukrainian figures are on the lowside if that leak is true

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10 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

When these guys are deposed they'll likely hang from the walls of the Kremlin. The idiocy of the last guy quoting what Stalin did to people who panic, and not realising that Stalin would've purged the lot of Putin's cabinet and ilk..

I hope we're going to train and arm the Free Russian Battalion too. When this war is over there's so many groupings who have it in for Putin that Russia will be chaos for the next 10 years.

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Do you think these ‘people’ factored in Ukraine receiving the level of support it has coupled with the best western weapons & intelligence before they decided to cross the border or was that message from Putin on Feb 24 about “anyone who hinders our operation will meet consequences like you’ve never seen before in your history” supposed to scare us all off?

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11 hours ago, sidcow said:

My bet is 1. though how that plays out with his position is questionable. 

I'm really not sure that throwing a million of so conscripts into the mix will make much difference now.  Those that don't just throw down weapons and run away will just be cannon fodder against better trained and by now probably better equipped Ukrainian troops. 

The issue with option 1 - saying Ukraine’s been de-nazified and running away bravely is exactly as you say - “his position”. All the war crimes, the massive damage, the death and destruction will be there for the world to see, unimpeded. He’d be toast, so to me that seems unlikely to be an option he’d choose willingly.

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Ukranian gains gave been incredible, but I'm still struggling to see an end game here. Putin has already spun one narrative. He'll spin another citing 'motherland against the world'. I just don’t see him going anywhere. The more the people suffer economically, the more anger he can direct against the west. There is no broadcast or truth we could project that won't be denounced as propaganda. Trump got a sizeable section of America ready to tear down the very principles the country stands for just to save one bigoted fascist using these tactics, and he's a moron. Putin, whatever he is, is not an idiot. He's going nowhere.

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31 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

Ukranian gains gave been incredible, but I'm still struggling to see an end game here. Putin has already spun one narrative. He'll spin another citing 'motherland against the world'. I just don’t see him going anywhere. The more the people suffer economically, the more anger he can direct against the west. There is no broadcast or truth we could project that won't be denounced as propaganda. Trump got a sizeable section of America ready to tear down the very principles the country stands for just to save one bigoted fascist using these tactics, and he's a moron. Putin, whatever he is, is not an idiot. He's going nowhere.

Speaking of America and Trump, if Putin can hold out until the next general election in the states, the whole global outlook could change remarkably for him.  A Republican win could really put the brakes on aid into Ukraine.  If Trump is the President again (which is a real possibility) then the needle will shift remarkably.  Remember Trump was always Putin's little bitch, he described the invasion of Ukraine as "very savvy" and "genius".  Whilst Trump would contradict himself and shift opinions on almost everything, often in the same day, he was 100% consistent in his praise of Russia and his absolute obsequiousness towards Putin (it may be the only thing he was 100% consistent on).  Even if Trump is not the candidate, his influence still runs deep in the Republican Party.  The unwavering support and enormous financial / military aid heading towards Ukraine may only be there for as long as the Democrats are.  It puts a further time pressure on kicking the Russians out.

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Remember all those enormous columns of armour rolling over the border?

A swift victory just seemed inevitable, expecially when they turned up outside Kyiv. 

How very wrong we were. 

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Haven't read up on this for a while. Getting up to date on things and reading through this thread, these Ukrainians seem to be proper hardcore fighters, an we can only give them 100% respect for the success they are having against the fading Russian military.

I'm not sure what Putin could do, but surprised there hasn't been more of an issue with all the back up from Europe and America though. Obviously European and American soldiers over there too, whether training the Ukrainian forces or fighting with them.

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35 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Remember all those enormous columns of armour rolling over the border?

A swift victory just seemed inevitable, expecially when they turned up outside Kyiv. 

How very wrong we were. 

I expected quick defeat, and a long occupation/resistance. I was very wrong.

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1 hour ago, Straggler said:

Speaking of America and Trump, if Putin can hold out until the next general election in the states, the whole global outlook could change remarkably for him.  A Republican win could really put the brakes on aid into Ukraine.  If Trump is the President again (which is a real possibility) then the needle will shift remarkably.  Remember Trump was always Putin's little bitch, he described the invasion of Ukraine as "very savvy" and "genius".  Whilst Trump would contradict himself and shift opinions on almost everything, often in the same day, he was 100% consistent in his praise of Russia and his absolute obsequiousness towards Putin (it may be the only thing he was 100% consistent on).  Even if Trump is not the candidate, his influence still runs deep in the Republican Party.  The unwavering support and enormous financial / military aid heading towards Ukraine may only be there for as long as the Democrats are.  It puts a further time pressure on kicking the Russians out.

Recent opinion polls are swinging back to the Democrats after the supreme court abortion decision, in which the majority of the population are in favour of wade-roe. If they do better than intially thought in the mid terms the Trump come back might not necessarily happen. They would till pick a  blow hard but he/she would be more anti Russian surely.

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3 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Recent opinion polls are swinging back to the Democrats after the supreme court abortion decision, in which the majority of the population are in favour of wade-roe. If they do better than intially thought in the mid terms the Trump come back might not necessarily happen. They would till pick a  blow hard but he/she would be more anti Russian surely.

Still astonishes me that someone who has verifiably done at least 2 or 3 illegal acts, and tried to bring down democracy (which the commies have been trying to do for decades btw) is still even able to walk around without an orange jumpsuit. The people who support him, and his Putin love in are the same folks that hunted down communists in the 60s and 70s. He is literally everything they purport to hate. F**king hypocrites. 

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8 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

Still astonishes me that someone who has verifiably done at least 2 or 3 illegal acts, and tried to bring down democracy (which the commies have been trying to do for decades btw) is still even able to walk around without an orange jumpsuit. The people who support him, and his Putin love in are the same folks that hunted down communists in the 60s and 70s. He is literally everything they purport to hate. F**king hypocrites. 

Yes but he was willing to  back all of their hobby horses so they turned a blind eye to the fact that is a crook and a horrible human being.

I am still taking the Ukrainian advances with a pinch of salt due to the media black out.

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The other issue Russia has is that they know they can’t win. If they progress Ukraine and the West will just keep turning the dial until they are pushed back again.

Its literally pointless for the Russians to continue fighting

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