Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

The other issue Russia has is that they know they can’t win. If they progress Ukraine and the West will just keep turning the dial until they are pushed back again.

Its literally pointless for the Russians to continue fighting

 

[sidcow]

Who was that Ukrainian guy who ran that channel updating on the war progress. 

I bet he's been cock-a-hoop the last few days. 

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

I am still taking the Ukrainian advances with a pinch of salt due to the media black out.

There are photos all over the place of towns and villages in the Kharkhiv Oblast being liberated and flying Ukrainian flags

Even Russia has admitted they've left (in their own way)

The UK Intelligence Services estimate that Ukraine has retaken land twice the size of greater London

You don't need a pinch of salt for that even with the media blackout

[Xann]

On 09/09/2022 at 21:01, KentVillan said:

Just wondering if Putin has some nasty options up his sleeve, or if this really is getting close to the endgame. The “stalemate” that a lot of pessimists have been talking about is surely not on the cards now, given the gains that have been made recently?

Stalemate is bad for Ukraine and Russia, but it's not escalation, and that's good for avoiding white hot annihilation.

Ukraine continuing to land punches without Russia being able to muster a meaningful response and...?  Haven't got a clue what happens, and I'm skeptical of anyone that says they do? 

On 10/09/2022 at 18:41, sidcow said:

Somebody somewhere is going to be emboldened to do something soon surely? 

Perhaps when they get an order that's more scary than a firing squad, but let's hope they do for him before that?

This is why there should be talks. Not for Putin, not to discuss ceding territory, keep it to subjects like nuclear power stations and reducing civilian casualties. Show willing to the Russian political class, let them feel there maybe another choice than to go along with a potential Putin last stand scenario?

On 10/09/2022 at 22:50, Genie said:

It is interesting to think about how it might play out of eventually Ukraine push Russian troops all the way back into Russia.

That there's another potential banana skin. Step over the the border and maybe that's war, rather than SMO? Who knows what that entails?

2 hours ago, Straggler said:

Speaking of America and Trump, if Putin can hold out until the next general election in the states, the whole global outlook could change remarkably for him...

Oh yeah. We could do with Trump being removed. Been watching oddschecker on the the next US Prez for a while (He's still favourite). When North Korea and the potential for thousands more troops was being banded around I was thinking it was as likely that they'd just dig in and wait, as try and push?

Europe's potential wobble could come sooner? A harsh Winter strengthens Putin's hand.

Anything could happen. 

Escalation? Russia breaking up? Ukraine repelling tanks from the East, only to be saddled with loans with strings from the West for the rebuild? Is that being too cynical? Europe and gas? America looking to take Russia out the game? America looking to tear itself apart?

What's Xi thinking? He's meeting Putin this week btw. First time since Covid. Being ignorant of what they cooked up between them before the tanks rolled in, it's hard to predict the outcome. Putin moaning about Tiktok is a cert, but Xi might just feel it's time to sit this one out? Rolling into Taiwan is risky, more so since Russia'a displays of breathtaking incompetence you'd think? Watching the US, Europe and Russia weakening themselves may present better opportunities later?

Exciting isn't it? Do you laugh or cry?

 

[Genie]

Quote

Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russians by eight to one in last week's counter-attack in the Kharkiv region, Russia's top occupation official there says. 

Vitaly Ganchev told Russian TV that Ukraine's army had taken villages in the north and broken through to the Russian border.

Ukraine says it has regained control over 3,000 sq km (1,158 sq miles) of territory in a potential breakthrough in the six-month war.

The BBC cannot verify these figures.

The Ukrainian army says it took back 20 villages in the past 24 hours alone, in its continued counter-offensive in the north-east of the country.

Bbc

It’s interesting that it’s Russia’s top officials saying they are massively out numbered.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Genie

[bickster]

There's going to be a big queue on the top floor of the hospitals at this point

 

[Genie]

Wow, the tide really is turning here. It’s a shame that they kept quiet whilst it looked like they were winning but it’ll do.

[Mr_Dogg]

16 minutes ago, Genie said:

Wow, the tide really is turning here. It’s a shame that they kept quiet whilst it looked like they were winning but it’ll do.

They are winning because they kept quiet.

[magnkarl]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

Remember all those enormous columns of armour rolling over the border?

A swift victory just seemed inevitable, expecially when they turned up outside Kyiv. 

How very wrong we were. 

There were some voices on here that had knowledge on Russia's ill military. Awol and Bicks amongst others. It took Germany with the best army in the world close to two years to capture Ukraine. Germany had proper generals and wonder weapons that worked. Russia has cardboard in their ERA-stacks.

I myself got called a number of things for trying to say that Russia wasn't all that, be that 'overly optimistic', 'blind' and whatnot. It's been a common theme with newer thinkers in International Relations that many of the autocratic nations of the world have really ineffective armed forces for a while now.

Edited September 12, 2022 by magnkarl

[bannedfromHandV]

This is all good news obvs but there is a nuclear problem with Russia being backed into a corner, or at least feeling like they’re backed into a corner.

That’s the point at which we’d have to hope for internal change in Russia otherwise we could see something truly catastrophic occur. 
 

I’d say the chances of Russia firing a nuke into Ukraine is increasing exponentially at the moment.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Chindie]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

There's going to be a big queue on the top floor of the hospitals at this point

 

The question is, do they push them all out of a single window one at a time so you have a nice little pile of ex politicians who all decided to commit suicide from the same window in a nice orderly queue, or do they push them out of a series of windows in a big line like a mass suicide ritual, or do they all go to visit a derelict hospital scheduled for demolition somewhere in Russia 'to inspect the explosives' and by accident the lot goes off while they're there?

[Genie]

12 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

This is all good news obvs but there is a nuclear problem with Russia being backed into a corner, or at least feeling like they’re backed into a corner.

That’s the point at which we’d have to hope for internal change in Russia otherwise we could see something truly catastrophic occur. 
 

I’d say the chances of Russia firing a nuke into Ukraine is increasing exponentially at the moment.

It might take something as extreme as plotting to fire a nuke to instigate change in Russia. Putin can’t do it all alone, if he tries to put the wheels in motion then it might be the beginning of the end of his loyalty from his first line.

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

It might take something as extreme as plotting to fire a nuke to instigate change in Russia. Putin can’t do it all alone, if he tries to put the wheels in motion then it might be the beginning of the end of his loyalty from his first line.

This is very likely. Even Russians know that firing a nuke means the end for them. Nukes are nothing more than deterrents after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Putin doesn't have the power to fire nukes by himself, it takes engineers, someone from the army and several people between him and the actual warhead needs to do their bit.

[KentVillan]

16 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

This is all good news obvs but there is a nuclear problem with Russia being backed into a corner, or at least feeling like they’re backed into a corner.

That’s the point at which we’d have to hope for internal change in Russia otherwise we could see something truly catastrophic occur. 
 

I’d say the chances of Russia firing a nuke into Ukraine is increasing exponentially at the moment.

Most of the experts who have called the various phases of this conflict accurately throughout seem to think the nuclear option is a possibility, but highly unlikely. For a start, Putin can’t just do it by himself with a PlayStation controller. But also it doesn’t really help Putin hold on to power, which will be his main worry at the moment. He’s a nasty word removed who has made a lot of big blunders, but he’s not completely irrational.

[sidcow]

The thing about nukes is you can realistically only use them if another nation is actively trying to wipe you out.  

No one is trying to wipe out Russia, they are merely beating them back from the invasion of their making.   There is just no way he can justify internally going nuclear over this.

What we MIGHT see though is some small tactical nuclear missiles used on the battlefield.  But even that has very scary consequences.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The thing about nukes is you can realistically only use them if another nation is actively trying to wipe you out.  

No one is trying to wipe out Russia, they are merely beating them back from the invasion of their making.   There is just no way he can justify internally going nuclear over this.

What we MIGHT see though is some small tactical nuclear missiles used on the battlefield.  But even that has very scary consequences.

Yes indeed, the West then has a huge decision to make.

I also hope that NATO / The West would see the signs this might be happening before it happens and make it crystal clear what the repercussions would be.

[KentVillan]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The thing about nukes is you can realistically only use them if another nation is actively trying to wipe you out.  

No one is trying to wipe out Russia, they are merely beating them back from the invasion of their making.   There is just no way he can justify internally going nuclear over this.

What we MIGHT see though is some small tactical nuclear missiles used on the battlefield.  But even that has very scary consequences.

There’s no real reason to use tactical battlefield nukes, though - the upside vs conventional weapons is minimal, and the downside is it provokes a huge response from Nato. Not to say of course that it won’t happen, but how does Putin convince anyone that it’s worth doing?

[sidcow]

Just now, KentVillan said:

There’s no real reason to use tactical battlefield nukes, though - the upside vs conventional weapons is minimal, and the downside is it provokes a huge response from Nato. Not to say of course that it won’t happen, but how does Putin convince anyone that it’s worth doing?

The reason is it looks like he's running out of troops and conventional weapons.

[Genie]

Just now, sidcow said:

The reason is it looks like he's running out of troops and conventional weapons.

So his options are humiliation or annihilation. Well played Vlad.