Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

1 minute ago, ender4 said:

Once the Ukranian Army gets to the river in Kherson, do they turn control half of Kherson?

How will they take the other half when they’ve destroyed all the bridges across the river?

Come from Melitopol. My understanding is that when they take Melitopol, there isn't much in the way of fighting forces between there and the Dnipro River, because it's impossible to ford the Dnipro between the Dam near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia

The will be troops close to the river near Kherson but not much between there and Melitopol

[Mandy Lifeboats]

14 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Once the Ukranian Army gets to the river in Kherson, do they then control half of Kherson?

How will they take the other half when they’ve destroyed all the bridges across the river?

They don't.  They blow out the Crimea Bridge,  attack Russian supply lines and wait.  

 

[ender4]

9 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

They don't.  They blow out the Crimea Bridge,  attack Russian supply lines and wait.  

 

Ooo sneaky.  I like it!

[bickster]

18 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

They don't.  They blow out the Crimea Bridge,  attack Russian supply lines and wait.  

 

Alternatively they have to keep the bridge as its the only route out for fleeing Russian forces

Also if they don't set foot in Cremea, how do they blow the Bridge? Himars range is about 70km, the bridge is roughly 160km from mainland Ukraine

I'm not sure what ordinance they have that could do it accurately from the mainland

[Mandy Lifeboats]

10 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Ooo sneaky.  I like it!

To my knowledge the NATO tactic to defeat a USSR/ Russian invasion has been the same since the 1980s.  The weapons have changed slightly but the strategy hasn't. 

Let them advance. Only hold onto areas with massive defensive advantage. Only attack areas with a significant offensive superiority. Cut off the supply lines with planes, special forces and highly mobile units. 

The Russian Army is a massive and powerful force.  Until it runs out of petrol and ammunition. 

 

 

 

 

[Delphinho123]

Do you remember when they said they were going to attack Finland or something along those lines if they threatened to join NATO…

Can you even imagine?! As I understand it, the Fins can put together an incredibly powerful, well trained army in a short space of time. Not only that, their terrain is a tricky one to navigate. 

Putin really is a f****** moron. 

[KentVillan]

28 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Do you remember when they said they were going to attack Finland or something along those lines if they threatened to join NATO…

Can you even imagine?! As I understand it, the Fins can put together an incredibly powerful, well trained army in a short space of time. Not only that, their terrain is a tricky one to navigate. 

Putin really is a f****** moron. 

There is something incredibly satisfying about watching this word removed who has been meddling in our politics for decades just totally lose his supervillain credibility.

Although I do fear the closer we get to completely humiliating him, the more dangerous he again becomes.

[magnkarl]

48 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Do you remember when they said they were going to attack Finland or something along those lines if they threatened to join NATO…

Can you even imagine?! As I understand it, the Fins can put together an incredibly powerful, well trained army in a short space of time. Not only that, their terrain is a tricky one to navigate. 

Putin really is a f****** moron. 

Finland was the first modern nation to show the world how to beat a ‘superpower’, they lost the war in the end but took down so many Russians in the process that Germany could essentially walk to Moscow shortly thereafter.

Ukraine has modernised Finland’s mobile long range artillery tactics. They use the landscape masterfully and seem superior in every way that isn’t demolishing a village and putting a Russian flag on the rubble.

Modern Russia wouldn’t even get to the border before Finland would disintegrate their push with much better tech than Ukraine has available. F35s, Swedish AFVs, Norwegian NASAM batteries. NATOs northern sector is looking awfully strong. I’m glad our neighbours in the north are so tech savvy and experienced with dealing with Russias near permanent BS since ww2.

[bickster]

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

In other news, the Azeri’s are now bombing Armenia

[KentVillan]

2 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

In other news, the Azeri’s are now bombing Armenia

Armenia is part of Russia’s version of NATO, the CSTO (Russia + Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with Serbia an observer).

This is likely a direct reaction to current perceptions of Russian weakness.

Nothing to cheer here, though… Azerbaijan is a repressive dictatorship and borders Iran. Dangerous times if these conflicts start to spread.

[bickster]

47 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Armenia is part of Russia’s version of NATO, the CSTO (Russia + Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with Serbia an observer).

This is likely a direct reaction to current perceptions of Russian weakness.

Nothing to cheer here, though… Azerbaijan is a repressive dictatorship and borders Iran. Dangerous times if these conflicts start to spread.

I think it's inevitable that there will be small conflicts between states such as these as it's obvious that Russia no longer has the capability to enforce peace in the satellite states under it's sphere of influence, whether that be quelling internal rebellion or providing defence to it's allies.

[magnkarl]

Judging by Ukraine's near permanent tactical superiority in this war I expect the next attack to come somewhere Russia doesn't expect it. Several people here have suggested Melitopol and a sweep through to the other side of Dnepr at Kherson. I'm starting to think that it could actually be the next move. Alternatively they'll go for a big punch and recapture Donetsk city, further tearing Russian morale apart.

Fun fact: with recapturing Sviatohirsk and the areas around it, Ukraine has liberated more of the area in Donetsk Oblast than Russia has captured in the last 3 months.. 

[KentVillan]

as to the question of where Ukraine will attack next - it seems to me that they have a strategy of not committing to specific plans, but being able to react at short notice to Russian weaknesses? So a lot will depend on where Russia collapses next?

[sidcow]

28 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

as to the question of where Ukraine will attack next - it seems to me that they have a strategy of not committing to specific plans, but being able to react at short notice to Russian weaknesses? So a lot will depend on where Russia collapses next?

You would imagine that they are rushing those troops away from Kherson back to bolster the defence further north after the expected attack on Kherson appeared to be a distraction tactic. 

If it turns out that the bulk of Ukrainian troops ARE in fact aimed at Kherson and just waiting for those troops to be redeployed back up North this could become a thing of Legend. 

[magnkarl]

22 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You would imagine that they are rushing those troops away from Kherson back to bolster the defence further north after the expected attack on Kherson appeared to be a distraction tactic. 

If it turns out that the bulk of Ukrainian troops ARE in fact aimed at Kherson and just waiting for those troops to be redeployed back up North this could become a thing of Legend. 

 

[Nicho]

25 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You would imagine that they are rushing those troops away from Kherson back to bolster the defence further north after the expected attack on Kherson appeared to be a distraction tactic. 

If it turns out that the bulk of Ukrainian troops ARE in fact aimed at Kherson and just waiting for those troops to be redeployed back up North this could become a thing of Legend. 

I dont understand how slight of hand manouvers happen in the modern world, surely with satellites any side should have identified everything about the enemy and tracked their every move. 

[bickster]

54 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You would imagine that they are rushing those troops away from Kherson back to bolster the defence further north after the expected attack on Kherson appeared to be a distraction tactic.

How are they going to rush troops away from Kherson? They are cut off from supplies and can't take their equipment with them

29 minutes ago, Nicho said:

I dont understand how slight of hand manouvers happen in the modern world, surely with satellites any side should have identified everything about the enemy and tracked their every move. 

I'm not convinced its a much a sleight of hand in the way it's being portrayed. The attack on Kherson is and was very genuine, I just think Ukraine realised how weakly defended the Kharkiv front was as a result and took full advantage

[magnkarl]

29 minutes ago, bickster said:

How are they going to rush troops away from Kherson? They are cut off from supplies and can't take their equipment with them

I'm not convinced its a much a sleight of hand in the way it's being portrayed. The attack on Kherson is and was very genuine, I just think Ukraine realised how weakly defended the Kharkiv front was as a result and took full advantage

There's also fairly set doctrines on when too many soldiers on one front is a bad thing. You don't need 1 million men to attack Kherson. Ukraine's reserve is by now many times larger than Russia's troop number. 

From what I gather a lot of the troops that pushed into Kharkiv are the same troops that have been stationed there all along, together with foreign legions, volunteer battalions and the Dutch\German PzH2000's\Leopards. The Russians are saying that they've never experienced the counter battery fire they're receiving in Kharkiv, which is a fairly dead cert indication that the PzH have been deployed there.

[NurembergVillan]

I love this thread. There's literally nowhere else I go in order to get reliable information on what's happening out in Ukraine.

Thanks to everyone who contributes, whether that's with facts and information or just asking questions of those with facts and information.

VT still reminds me of the days when the internet was a nice place to be.