Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

 

[bickster]

This one is VERY pinch of salt but if true is massive. Just a rumour but is being spread (with much caution) by a fair few accounts

 

[Jareth]

And this

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

10 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

What would be the fault lines in a Russian Civil War? As **** as everything is with Chechnya etc, the vast majority of the population (81%) are Russian-speaking ethnic Russians, so ethnicity doesn’t seem likely. Similar story with religion.

The ideological civil war of early 20th century likely won’t be refought, as most Russians are just different brands of Russian nationalism, and Putin hasn’t allowed much space for debate.

So seems more likely any overthrow of Putin would be more of an elite-led coup, maybe falling apart into factions around different personalities? Would that lead to full blown civil war? Doesn’t seem like the classic setup for a civil war, but guess we’re in uncharted territory already.

 

I can see the logic in all of that. 

But Russia's army is massive and some of it is stationed in remote areas.  Its possible that the whole army could unite behind a coup.  But its also possible that some of the army will remain loyal and defend Putin. 

Gorbachev's greatest achievement was that the USSR ended without the massive loss of life we saw in Yugoslavia.  Russia could easily decend into a similar chaos.  

 

[bickster]

Just now, Jareth said:

And this

 

Yep again in Kherson where apparently the Khadyrovites that were sent in the other day as Barrier Troops, their usual role, have been attacked by the Russian troops who they were meant to be enforcing to fight from the rear

[Mandy Lifeboats]

16 minutes ago, bickster said:

 

I had a read of this thread. The Ukrainians seem to have captured the weapons, the instruction manual, the original packaging and the receipt.  

They could take it back and get a refund.  

[NoelVilla]

 

[avfc1982am]

Right back to the border in the north and Severdonetsk about to tumble..

 

[KentVillan]

45 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I can see the logic in all of that. 

But Russia's army is massive and some of it is stationed in remote areas.  Its possible that the whole army could unite behind a coup.  But its also possible that some of the army will remain loyal and defend Putin. 

Gorbachev's greatest achievement was that the USSR ended without the massive loss of life we saw in Yugoslavia.  Russia could easily decend into a similar chaos.  

 

I doubt it would be pro Putin vs anti Putin. More likely various post-Putin factions.

As for Yugoslavia - there was a much more pronounced ethno-religious divide there. Same in Libya (Turks v Arabs / Islamists vs non-Islamist Muslims). Same in Syria, etc.

It could of course happen in Russia too, especially as it has before, but my guess is it will be a weird coup, maybe even an orderly succession. Nobody really wants it to all blow up, because it would spill over into neighbouring countries.

[bickster]

On 07/09/2022 at 16:27, Panto_Villan said:

I'd be quite surprised if we don't see another attack down towards Melitipol in the next few weeks too. Seems like the Russians are stretched incredibly thinly already and the Ukrainians have been hitting supplies in that area for a long time now.

You appear to be correct

 

[Delphinho123]

2 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

[bickster]

8 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

If its usable they will use it but it will depend on what ammunition they have for it and how serviceable they are.

There is a theory they were left because they took all the decent stuff to Kherson as Russian armour currently has a high failure rate as it's all been in storage for years and not well maintained so that video may be all the stuff that just didnt work

 

[Delphinho123]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

If its usable they will use it but it will depend on what ammunition they have for it and how serviceable they are.

There is a theory they were left because they took all the decent stuff to Kherson as Russian armour currently has a high failure rate as it's all been in storage for years and not well maintained so that video may be all the stuff that just didnt work

 

Bickster, you seem clued up on this stuff. What’s Putin’s end game here? How do you see this playing out? Where is this war headed?

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Bickster, you seem clued up on this stuff. What’s Putin’s end game here? How do you see this playing out? Where is this war headed?

I don’t think he has one, he didn’t expect so much resistance. He’s completely **** the situation up.

Ideally he wanted to occupy what he wanted then negotiate a ceasefire with Russia keeping the east and south.

Now it’s not going to happen I can’t see any way out which doesn’t make him look stupid and weak.

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Bickster, you seem clued up on this stuff. What’s Putin’s end game here? How do you see this playing out? Where is this war headed?

That really is the million dollar question. I really don't think even Putin himself could give you an answer.

There really are too many possibilities

The war itself is ony heading in one direction, a Ukraine victory (in therms of getting it's land back)

Russia is militarily f***ed, it will take a very long time to rebuild their military to even what it was. I fully expect Georgia to attempt to retake South Ossetia at some point, The Russians may just leave Transnistria themselves. Who knows, we just see the disintegration of Russia itsaelf into smaller components in time. There are just so many things that could happen

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

“God knows, this quarrel was not worth it”: Lukashenko said he was ready to return the ambassador to Kiev

According to the president, as a peace-loving person wise over the years, he has always advocated good neighborly relations with Ukraine and is ready to take the first step towards it.

[blandy]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

I don’t think he has one, he didn’t expect so much resistance. He’s completely **** the situation up.

Ideally he wanted to occupy what he wanted then negotiate a ceasefire with Russia keeping the east and south.

Now it’s not going to happen I can’t see any way out which doesn’t make him look stupid and weak.

I'm not clued up. I guess that the original aim was just to march in, take control in Kiev in a handful of days and install a puppet government. When then went wrong, the aim changed to that which you mention - get hold of the eastern and southern Oblasts and then negotiate some kind of ceasefire (though Ukraine wouldn't agree to that, even from a position of weakness, I don't think - but that's why all the economic Gas stuff with the EU - to try to level the EU and UK to push Ukraine to ceasefire and negotiate). Anyway, now, he's got 3 choices, really - 1. Declare that Ukraine has been "de-nazified" and run away. 2. Full on mobilisation and try and overpower the UA forces or 3. Carry on as now and try and regroup and regain the initiative and control, though the runes are not good, seeing as it looks like his troops are disorganised, partly mutinous, running away in significant parts and so on, and struggling logistically and tactically.

That kind of demoralisation and fear amongst troops is corrosive and spreads rapidly.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

“God knows, this quarrel was not worth it”: Lukashenko said he was ready to return the ambassador to Kiev

According to the president, as a peace-loving person wise over the years, he has always advocated good neighborly relations with Ukraine and is ready to take the first step towards it.

Haha, Putin still won't make him a Colnel

On a more serious level, it shows even stupid fawning Lukashenko nows this war is over and the he picked the wrong side

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, Delphinho123 said:

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

Apparently it's fake. Well, it's real but it's not abandoned Russian equipment, it's a Russian video showing Russian equipment. 

(although I'm also more than happy to be told that that in itself is disinformation that I've been taken in by)

Edited September 11, 2022 by ml1dch

[Mandy Lifeboats]

56 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

Many are being repaired in EU countries and shipped back. 

Poland has a base manned by various NATO specialist who deal with the repairs of equipment that is the most useful or the least damaged. This gets the kit back into Ukraine as quickly as possible.  It also allows NATO to examine anything of interest and identify weaknesses.