Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[It's Your Round]

It’s hard to not get carried away with this counter offensive, but it really looks like the momentum is firmly with Ukraine now. Russian troops are demoralised, unable to establish supply lines and incapable of fighting on the move. Ukraine can potentially run them back to the border. It’s early days obviously but you can’t help but wonder whether they will try and take back Crimea? It’s complicated, but feasible.

 

[magnkarl]

Desert storm speed this. Ukraine doesn’t have enough holding capacity for all their POWs. 

On what a potential civil war could be, I would gander that Chechnya and the surrounding oblasts would quite quickly turn on Kadyrov and Putin. Yekaterinburg and other cities also have a lot of hate towards Putin and Moscow. There’s also quite a few academic circles that could cause trouble. 

[Tayls]

Are Ukraine going to push to retake the Luhansk and Donetsk regions? Or would they just get to the border of them two and stop - but essentially handing them to Russia in the process? In some ways that might be a suitable move to try and put an ‘end’ to the war - if we can call it that. 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Tayls

[Tayls]

@Delphinho123 - why confused? 

[bickster]

20 minutes ago, Tayls said:

Are Ukraine going to push to retake the Luhansk and Donetsk regions? Or would they just get to the border of them two and stop - but essentially handing them to Russia in the process? In some ways that might be a suitable move to try and put an ‘end’ to the war - if we can call it that. 

Already attacking Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Already stories about pushing south to Melitopol too

[bickster]

There isn’t much news today btw because Ukraine asked for much tighter OPSEC again

[sidcow]

3 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

My god that is shocking.  Is this a central collection point they've brought stuff to or is this something they've captured in one swoop? 

[Tayls]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

Already attacking Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Already stories about pushing south to Melitopol too

Jeez. So they want all back then. Fair! 

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

I'm not clued up. I guess that the original aim was just to march in, take control in Kiev in a handful of days and install a puppet government. When then went wrong, the aim changed to that which you mention - get hold of the eastern and southern Oblasts and then negotiate some kind of ceasefire (though Ukraine wouldn't agree to that, even from a position of weakness, I don't think - but that's why all the economic Gas stuff with the EU - to try to level the EU and UK to push Ukraine to ceasefire and negotiate). Anyway, now, he's got 3 choices, really - 1. Declare that Ukraine has been "de-nazified" and run away. 2. Full on mobilisation and try and overpower the UA forces or 3. Carry on as now and try and regroup and regain the initiative and control, though the runes are not good, seeing as it looks like his troops are disorganised, partly mutinous, running away in significant parts and so on, and struggling logistically and tactically.

That kind of demoralisation and fear amongst troops is corrosive and spreads rapidly.

My bet is 1. though how that plays out with his position is questionable. 

I'm really not sure that throwing a million of so conscripts into the mix will make much difference now.  Those that don't just throw down weapons and run away will just be cannon fodder against better trained and by now probably better equipped Ukrainian troops. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

My bet is 1. though how that plays out with his position is questionable. 

Agreed.  Now to get Russia to pay for the crimes they have committed.

They will have to pay or they can't play in the world anymore.

[It's Your Round]

14 minutes ago, sidcow said:

My god that is shocking.  Is this a central collection point they've brought stuff to or is this something they've captured in one swoop? 

It’s just the latest harvest from the John Deere division. Ukrainian farmers are second to none. 

[It's Your Round]

2 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Agreed.  Now to get Russia to pay for the crimes they have committed.

They will have to pay or they can't play in the world anymore.

They should be made to pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. 

[djdabush]

3 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

So many tanks. That is an expensive amount of equipment to lose. What would the Ukrainians do with that? Would they paint a Ukrainian flag on it and use it against the Russians or just destroy it?

Unfortunately this is an old video of a maintenance facility in Crimea.

[avfc1982am]

I could be talking crap, but I think Putin is just running out of options. He played the game completely wrong and however it has transpired someone has seriously led him up the wrong path. He's been caught up in his own imperialistic bubble, watching Xi in China with jealousy and wanting a piece for himself. Whilst seriously misjudging his own population which for the most part are now very much westernised and have no wish to be impoverished and oppressed again. 

Nobody really had stomach for this, even in Russia, hence his inability to call on full mobilisation without potentially creating a political vacuum that could potentially swallow his own power. He's becoming slowly untangled now and the reason for this is 6 months no leave or respite for the troops. His inability to have the population eating out of his hand with his bs spin. I think they've all had enough and only time will tell but as far as the troops are concerned, the ground they're now conceding is at happening at an alarming rate, suggesting more is going on within the Russian forces than the Russian Government is willing to discuss. 

 

[avfc1982am]

 

[KentVillan]

27 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I could be talking crap, but I think Putin is just running out of options. He played the game completely wrong and however it has transpired someone has seriously led him up the wrong path. He's been caught up in his own imperialistic bubble, watching Xi in China with jealousy and wanting a piece for himself. Whilst seriously misjudging his own population which for the most part are now very much westernised and have no wish to be impoverished and oppressed again. 

Nobody really had stomach for this, even in Russia, hence his inability to call on full mobilisation without potentially creating a political vacuum that could potentially swallow his own power. He's becoming slowly untangled now and the reason for this is 6 months no leave or respite for the troops. His inability to have the population eating out of his hand with his bs spin. I think they've all had enough and only time will tell but as far as the troops are concerned, the ground they're now conceding is at happening at an alarming rate, suggesting more is going on within the Russian forces than the Russian Government is willing to discuss. 

 

And if you look back to Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc. it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise to anyone. One side is hugely more motivated to succeed, because it's their land and their heritage, and everything they care about to the core of their being.

What Putin massively overestimated was the appetite among Russian-speaking / "ethnic Russian" Ukrainians to turn on the Zelensky regime and aid Putin in his quest. It's been known for a long time that many Russian-speaking Ukrainians (Zelensky being one) see themselves as Ukrainians first, and Russian speakers second.

For example, going back to 2014 https://comresglobal.com/polls/cnn-ukraine-crisis-poll/

Quote

Ukrainians are a lot less pro-Russian than separatists there would like the world to believe, even in regions along the border with Russia which are supposedly voting overwhelmingly to declare independence from Ukraine, a new poll for CNN suggests.

 

The people of Ukraine feel much more loyal to Europe than to Russia, and a clear majority back economic sanctions against Russia, according to the poll of 1,000 people across the country conducted in the past week.

Two out of three (67%) people in Ukraine approve of economic sanctions against Russia, while one out of three (29%) disapproves, the poll by ComRes for CNN found.

Ukrainians tend to see Russian President Vladimir Putin as dangerous and a strong leader, while they consider U.S. President Barack Obama friendly.

More than half (56%) said they felt a stronger sense of loyalty to Europe than to Russia, while 19% said they felt more loyal to Russia and 22% said neither. Three percent said they didn't know.

When you factor all of that in, and the involvement of NATO / EU support, it always made sense that the Ukrainians would *eventually* get the upper hand.

What nobody could really work out is how long that would take, whether that would involve a period of widespread Russian occupation, and so on.

The great thing about this push is that it really helps to solidify Western support for Ukraine through a very challenging winter, as Putin uses one of his strongest ploys to inflict an energy crisis on Ukraine's European allies. We just have to hope they continue gaining ground in Donbas (and hopefully Crimea) before winter conditions lock both sides into stalemate.

[bannedfromHandV]

44 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

One of them guys couldn’t look more like a Russian bad guy in a film if he tried.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

3 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

 

“Telling a person that he doesn’t exist, denying their identity, will only cause them to reject us”

They’ve got themselves some visionaries. True pioneers

So now after the huge gains made my Ukraine in the last few days, Russia have struck power stations and grids to deny the very people they claim to want to be liberating as an act of revenge. These words from Zelensky are perfect

Edited September 12, 2022 by BleedClaretAndBlue

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

On the 9/11 anniversary this was put out all over Russian homes, those hackers have done some great work and hopefully cleansed a brain or two of the deluded populace

[Mozzavfc]

4 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

“Telling a person that he doesn’t exist, denying their identity, will only cause them to reject us”

They’ve got themselves some visionaries. True pioneers

So now after the huge gains made my Ukraine in the last few days, Russia have struck power stations and grids to deny the very people they claim to want to be liberating as an act of revenge. These words from Zelensky are perfect

The team that write Zelensky's speeches are always spot on. Always so powerful