Guest av1 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Our squad is better than the majority of teams in this division, and in January we will probably improve that further. Our current league postion is just down to the fact that we didn't have a manager for the first couple of months of the season. I see no reason why we can't challenge for a play off place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted October 22, 2016 Visiting Supporter Share Posted October 22, 2016 This league is ridiculous because anyone can beat anyone. Burton are struggling but have shown they are no pushovers with wins against Brum, Wednesday and Derby. Cardiff have been dog turd and beat us and today Blackburn can feel hard done by for not taking a point from us. Obviously I don't see much of your games and can't comment on performances or anything like that. I do wonder how much of the form change is down to the "new manager bounce" but at the same time if you win your next 3 you will be midtable with over half the season left in what is a very tight league meaning a playoff push wouldn't be out the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TrentVilla Posted October 22, 2016 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted October 22, 2016 1 minute ago, JamesBCFC said: This league is ridiculous because anyone can beat anyone. Burton are struggling but have shown they are no pushovers with wins against Brum, Wednesday and Derby. Cardiff have been dog turd and beat us and today Blackburn can feel hard done by for not taking a point from us. Obviously I don't see much of your games and can't comment on performances or anything like that. I do wonder how much of the form change is down to the "new manager bounce" but at the same time if you win your next 3 you will be midtable with over half the season left in what is a very tight league meaning a playoff push wouldn't be out the question. New manager bounce has been proven to be a myth. If we win our next three games we won't be mid table. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted October 22, 2016 Visiting Supporter Share Posted October 22, 2016 1 minute ago, TrentVilla said: New manager bounce has been proven to be a myth. If we win our next three games we won't be mid table. If you win your next 3 you will be a few points & positions short of playoffs putting you at the top end of mid table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 22, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted October 22, 2016 Next week being a local derby anything can happen, regardless of form we could get a win there. Then you would think we would do Blackburn at home so I don't think it's at all unfeasible that we could win 4 on the bounce. Who knows where that kind of confidence can then take you. However this is Aston Villa. Good things do not happen to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 22, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 22, 2016 Just now, JamesBCFC said: If you win your next 3 you will be a few points & positions short of playoffs putting you at the top end of mid table. If that's how you are defining mid table we are already mid table, just lower mid table. We aren't going to win the next three in any case, it's a completely unrealistic scenario. Over the next 10 or so games we simply need to put ourselves in the play off places, add two or three players in January and see if we can kick on. Our league position generally this season has been a reflection of our performances, it hasn't been a true reflection of our squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 22, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, sidcow said: Next week being a local derby anything can happen, regardless of form we could get a win there. Then you would think we would do Blackburn at home so I don't think it's at all unfeasible that we could win 4 on the bounce. Who knows where that kind of confidence can then take you. However this is Aston Villa. Good things do not happen to us! They just did when we swapped a dunce for Bruce. A win at the Sty led by Bruce, oh boy would that be sweet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave J Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 8 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: New manager bounce has been proven to be a myth. If we win our next three games we won't be mid table. But is it really- surely a myth suggests it's never happened? Now maybe not as often as often perceived - but I feel quite sure it has and does happen though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheepyvillian Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 I'm totally confident ,of us ,not only making the play offs ,but being promoted also . Where my team is concerned ,the faith is unshakeable . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Slightly off topic here folks, but with a half decent chance of getting to Wembley this season, if you do attend games makes sure you use your own booking reference. Every time we have a big game/derby etc there are fans bemoaning the fact that they used the postmans reference, USE YOUR OWN ID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 22, 2016 Moderator Share Posted October 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Dave J said: But is it really- surely a myth suggests it's never happened? Now maybe not as often as often perceived - but I feel quite sure it has and does happen though ? I believe its a myth personally, statistically I think that is supported as well. You might find this interesting (ironic that it starts off with Steve Bruce getting the boot from Sunderland) - https://footballformlabs.wordpress.com/tag/new-manage-bounce/ Anyway that is another thread almost so lets keep it on Bruce, me included. Quote In this article, we use the Form Lab software to analyse the myth of the new manager bounce. This week, Sunderland’s Steve Bruce became the first managerial casualty in the Premier League this season, but with the January transfer window looming, he’s unlikely to be the only one in the firing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave J Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 8 hours ago, TrentVilla said: I believe its a myth personally, statistically I think that is supported as well. You might find this interesting (ironic that it starts off with Steve Bruce getting the boot from Sunderland) - https://footballformlabs.wordpress.com/tag/new-manage-bounce/ Anyway that is another thread almost so lets keep it on Bruce, me included. Fair enough Trent- my final thoughts though would be Warnock/ Rotherham last season, surely this would be a classic case in point? but agreed enough said . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Honestly thought we were going to struggle to make play offs beat the blues and we will have serious momentum I feel we could even make a stab at automatic promotion if we can get ourselves around the playoffs by Xmas this division is all about momentum and grinding results and we are starting to do that . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 22 minutes ago, BigAl said: Honestly thought we were going to struggle to make play offs beat the blues and we will have serious momentum I feel we could even make a stab at automatic promotion if we can get ourselves around the playoffs by Xmas this division is all about momentum and grinding results and we are starting to do that . . Automatic promotion will be a lot tougher. Three strongest are looking like Newcastle (who will surely win the thing) and then fight between Brighton and Norwich for 2nd. They will drop fewer points than play off teams will. Target for us I would say would be to try to reach 40 points by NYD....so that must be 15 or some games to churn up 7 wins and a couple of draws. We would then have the second half of the season to claim a play off place by getting another 10 wins and 15 wins probably needed for auto promotion. Conclusion is only way we could do anything this season is to keep winning matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dave J said: Fair enough Trent- my final thoughts though would be Warnock/ Rotherham last season, surely this would be a classic case in point? but agreed enough said . New Manager Bounce would be if there was a general positive effect when a new manager was appointed i.e. On average new managers delivered additional points over or above the normal performance of the team. You can't just take one example when it happened and say new manager bounce and ignore all the other cases when it didnt Edited October 23, 2016 by VillaCas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 9 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Three strongest are looking like Newcastle (who will surely win the thing) and then fight between Brighton and Norwich for 2nd. They will drop fewer points than play off teams will It's still early days. Any of the top teams can go on a poor run and tumble down the league. We just need to concentrate on the things we can influence and let the league position look after itself 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave J Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, VillaCas said: New Manager Bounce would be if there was a general positive effect when a new manager was appointed i.e. On average new managers delivered additional points over or above the normal performance of the team. You can't just take one example when it happened and say new manager bounce and ignore all the other cases when it didnt What! I've never said this- all I said was that you cannot say it's a myth because this would suggest it never has/does happen- I only used Warnock as an example that it does- if I was bothered enough I could also come up with many other examples- some people might even wish to quote our very own John Gregory. With due respect I'm not overly sure where you were going with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I think had we sacked RDM 3-4 games earlier we would have been in with a shout with automatic promotion. That may have been harsh on RDM at the time so can't blame Xia there. to even be in a shout we would have to win something like 10 games straight which isn't going to happen. Play offs is our best shout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 hour ago, VillaChris said: Automatic promotion will be a lot tougher. Three strongest are looking like Newcastle (who will surely win the thing) and then fight between Brighton and Norwich for 2nd. They will drop fewer points than play off teams will. Target for us I would say would be to try to reach 40 points by NYD....so that must be 15 or some games to churn up 7 wins and a couple of draws. We would then have the second half of the season to claim a play off place by getting another 10 wins and 15 wins probably needed for auto promotion. Conclusion is only way we could do anything this season is to keep winning matches. I agree automatic promotion will be very tough have 11 pts to make up but we have some very winnable games between now and the New Year and you would be thinking the gap should be less than 11 come the new year we are up against it because of our start but wouldn't bet against us making a automatic promotion push . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntrimBlack Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Newcastle are going to walk it. Everything else is up for grabs. We will get promoted, either automatic or through the playoffs, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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