bickster Posted March 27, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: As none of their four predictions are likely to play out that way over the next two weeks... I thought exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 When we find out the results of the votes today for the various ideas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 hour ago, ml1dch said: Maybe I missed it, but none of them seemed to mention what it is that changes, resulting in the other 27 countries being willing to extend beyond April 12th. As none of their four predictions are likely to play out that way over the next two weeks... Isn't that the role being played by the card saying 'General Election'? I don't see much doubt that the EU will grant a long extension if the condition is participation in the EU elections and a national ballot. It's in all of their interests to have someone in power in more than name only to negotiate with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Barry the gardener continuing his crusade to alienate the majority of his party members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Main story in the Graun this morning: Brexit extension could be until 31 March 2020, EU documents reveal 'The EU has pencilled in April Fools’ Day 2020 as a leading option for Britain’s first day outside the bloc, should the UK government ask Brussels for a lengthy extension of article 50 in three weeks’ time, it can be revealed. The date was to be offered at the leaders’ summit last week if Theresa May had followed through on her promise to request a short extension in the event of passing her Brexit deal, and a longer one should it be rejected again by the House of Commons. Such was the disapproval of her cabinet, the prime minister only sought a short delay until 30 June in her formal letter. She was subsequently given an unconditional extension until 12 April, or a longer one to 22 May in the unlikely event of the withdrawal agreement being ratified this week. Without having received a request from Downing Street for a prolonged extension, the EU’s leaders instead left open the offer of a lengthy delay should there be a new political process or event before 12 April, such as a general election or second referendum, but they did not stipulate its potential length. A one-year extension, ending on 31 March 2020, was, however, written into internal EU papers before the summit as an offer that could be made to May should she formally seek a longer extension, sources said. It will likely remain an option if May comes back to Brussels having failed to ratify her deal. Such a UK departure date would ensure the British government would not have any opportunity to meddle in the EU’s long-term plans, including its budget, sources suggested. “That would safeguard our work during this year and basically allow us to turn to it again early next year,” the official said. “Giving more than that time runs the risk of mischief by the UK. We have seen the talk of Brexiters of trying to stay in and cause trouble. So such a time limit is not a bad idea.” Sources emphasised that no decision had been made and it would be the subject of intense debate among the leaders at a summit, likely to be held on 10 April in Brussels, should May come back again for extra time.' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/brexit-extension-could-last-until-31-march-2020-eu-documents-reveal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 What do we think Mogg's support will do for the likelihood of May's deal passing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Just now, Wainy316 said: What do we think Mogg's support will do for the likelihood of May's deal passing? He's just given an interview on R4 where he's pledged to simply vote as per the DUP, in his words 'as they are the guardians of the union'. He also told us it's better to have half a loaf than no bread, that the petition is fake and the march had about 300,000 people on it and labour are 'remainiacs'. I like that he's got his own slot on Radio 4. He's so much funnier than Count Arthur Strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: He's just given an interview on R4 where he's pledged to simply vote as per the DUP, in his words 'as they are the guardians of the union'. He also told us it's better to have half a loaf than no bread, that the petition is fake and the march had about 300,000 people on it and labour are 'remainiacs'. I like that he's got his own slot on Radio 4. He's so much funnier than Count Arthur Strong. DUP holding the rest of the country to ransom. This is apparently what taking back control looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted March 27, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted March 27, 2019 Guys, I’ve been in america for the past 5 days and I’m not back until Sunday. Any chance of a summary of what the **** is happening? As I literally have no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: DUP holding the rest of the country to ransom. This is apparently what taking back control looks like. DUP Sammy Wilson was on something or other last night and he couldn't have looked more gammon if you were doing a parody sketch of the typical gammon. Red faced, a moustache from 1981, angry and waving a pointy finger. He liked the past and he was bloody determined to take us there. It struck me he wouldn't be happy until we all have to swear allegiance to the flag and go on a piper march. He was a man who's good times were back when there were no gays, no darkies and his mum made sandwiches for Sunday tea. He even denies climate change describing it as as dodgy new fake religion. A useful idiot as the ERG would see him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Just now, Stevo985 said: Guys, I’ve been in america for the past 5 days and I’m not back until Sunday. Any chance of a summary of what the **** is happening? As I literally have no clue Wherever it was at when you left, it's a bit like that, and something might happen in a day or two. There might be a new plan. It might be the old plan. Yesterday was unprecedented. Today is the 27th. Rinse. Repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Guys, I’ve been in america for the past 5 days and I’m not back until Sunday. Any chance of a summary of what the **** is happening? As I literally have no clue Cliff edge extended to 12th April, if deal is agreed then 22nd May (I think) Labour came out and said they're not a Remain party this morning. Also called revoke an extreme option. MPs to vote on various Brexit options tonight to see what there is a majority for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Guys, I’ve been in america for the past 5 days and I’m not back until Sunday. Any chance of a summary of what the **** is happening? As I literally have no clue Stay there 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Isn't that the role being played by the card saying 'General Election'? I don't see much doubt that the EU will grant a long extension if the condition is participation in the EU elections and a national ballot. It's in all of their interests to have someone in power in more than name only to negotiate with. It is. But given that needs to be sorted by the end of next week in order for the request to be granted by the Council two weeks today, how do things play out so quickly, and to such an extent that we are telling them there will be a general election? Realistically that needs to have been voted on by Parliament by the end of next week at the very latest. How do we get from indicative votes today, so Parliament voting in favour of a General Election in seven days of Parliamentary time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 41 minutes ago, Wainy316 said: What do we think Mogg's support will do for the likelihood of May's deal passing? His 'support', as per @chrisp65 above, is only wafer-thin anyway, and if he truly plans to vote the way the DUP vote then I don't expect he will be supporting it in the end. In mathematical terms, his support is 'necessary but not sufficient'. May only has a majority with the DUP. If the DUP vote against the bill, she already needs Labour and independent votes. That's fine, last time she received seven. But she's unlikely to receive many more, and unfortunately for her there are, or appear to be, backbench Tories who will simply never vote for her deal. The more of those there are, the more Labour votes she needs, and there's just no incentive for Labour members to switch sides on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Cliff edge extended to 12th April, if deal is agreed then 22nd May (I think) Labour came out and said they're not a Remain party this morning. Also called revoke an extreme option. MPs to vote on various Brexit options tonight to see what there is a majority for. On the specific question of Gardiner's interview, I'm not sure he wasn't freelancing this morning. Peter Kyle was also on the Today program, saying he expected Corbyn to order Labour MP's to back the Beckett amendment, so we'll see who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 27, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: On the specific question of Gardiner's interview, I'm not sure he wasn't freelancing this morning. Peter Kyle was also on the Today program, saying he expected Corbyn to order Labour MP's to back the Beckett amendment, so we'll see who is right. Barry the Gardener wouldn't know how to freelance, he's only allowed out of the allotment to speak on condition that he says the right thing. He also appears to be the only other Shadow Cabinet member allowed to officially speak on Brexit apart from Mad Dog McDonnell and St Jezza, in fact, he speaks on the tellybox far more than they do. I think he's operated by remote control 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 Guide to 16 tabled options for the indicative votes, of which an unknown number will be chosen/rejected by the speaker: 'Labour plan Labour has tabled a motion proposing its plan for a close economic relationship with the EU. The plan includes a comprehensive customs union with a UK say on future trade deals; close alignment with the single market; matching new EU rights and protections; participation in EU agencies and funding programmes; and agreement on future security arrangements, including access to the European arrest warrant. Common market 2.0 Tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Andrew Percy and Labour’s Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell and Diana Johnson. The motion proposes UK membership of the European free trade association and European Economic Area. It allows continued participation in the single market and a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU after Brexit, which would remain in place until the agreement of a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland. Confirmatory public vote Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification. Customs union Requires a commitment to negotiate a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU” in any Brexit deal. Tabled by veteran Conservative Europhile Ken Clarke, backed by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Helen Goodman and chair of the Commons Brexit committee Hilary Benn and Tory former ministers Sir Oliver Letwin and Sarah Newton. Malthouse compromise Plan A A cross-party proposal calls for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement to be implemented with the controversial “backstop” for the Irish border replaced by alternative arrangements. Backed by Conservatives from both the leave and remain wings of the party, including Nicky Morgan, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Damian Green, Steve Baker and Sir Graham Brady, as well as the DUP’s Nigel Dodds and Labour Brexiteer Kate Hoey. Revoke article 50 Under this plan, if the government has not passed its withdrawal agreement, it would have to stage a vote on a no-deal Brexit two sitting days before the scheduled date of departure. If MPs refuse to authorise no-deal, the prime minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking article 50. The motion, tabled by the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, has been signed by 33 MPs including Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, Labour’s Ben Bradshaw and all 11 members of The Independent Group. Revocation instead of no deal Under this plan, the government is called on to “urgently” bring forward any legislation needed to revoke article 50 “in the event that the house fails to approve any withdrawal agreement four days before the end of the article 50 period”. It has been signed by 28 MPs, including the SNP’s Angus Brendan MacNeil and Tory MP Ken Clarke. New customs union Tabled by Labour’s MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell, this motion simply states that it should be the government’s objective to implement a trade agreement including a customs union with the EU. It mirrors an amendment to the trade bill secured by Labour peers in the House of Lords. EEA/EFTA without customs union A motion tabled by Conservative MP George Eustice - who quit as agriculture minister this month to fight for Brexit - proposes remaining within the EEA and rejoining EFTA, but remaining outside a customs union with the EU. The motion was also signed by Conservative MPs including former minister Nicky Morgan and head of the Brexit Delivery Group Simon Hart. No deal Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12. Unilateral right of exit from backstop The same four Tory MPs, as well as Andrew Percy and Neil Parish, have also backed a motion to leave the EU on May 22 with Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement amended to allow the UK to unilaterally exit the Northern Ireland backstop. Consent of devolved institutions Backed by SNP MPs including Ian Blackford, Kirsty Blackman and Stephen Gethins, this motion requires an agreement that the UK will not leave without a deal, and that no action for leaving the EU will be taken without a consent motion passed in both the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly. Contingent preferential arrangements A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement with the bloc. Contingent reciprocal arrangements A similar group of Tory MPs have backed a proposal calling for the government to “at least reciprocate the arrangements put in place by the EU and or its member states to manage the period following the UK’s departure from the EU”, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement. Respect the referendum results A cross-party proposal, signed by 94 MPs including the Conservatives’ Will Quince, Labour’s Frank Field and the DUP’s Nigel Dodds, urges the house to “reaffirm its commitment to honour the result of the referendum that the UK should leave the European Union”. Constitutional and accountable government Tabled by Sir Bill Cash and other Tory Brexiters, this backs leaving the EU, rejects the government’s withdrawal agreement and proposes changing Commons standing orders so that a two-thirds majority would be needed to allow any fresh attempt to allow indicative votes debates to take precedence over government business on any given day.' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/27/brexit-latest-news-live-debate-indicative-votes--to-vote-on-alternative-votes-as-speculation-mounts-may-could-announce-plans-to-quit-live-news?page=with:block-5c9b4a0fe4b0a8f431e32151#block-5c9b4a0fe4b0a8f431e32151 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted March 27, 2019 Share Posted March 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Stevo985 said: Any chance of a summary of what the **** is happening? As I literally have no clue You've clearly caught up with everyone else, then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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