The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[wazzap24]

It must be pretty much over as a contest now surely? 

The only threat to remain is apathy amongst voters as the leave lot do seem a bit more rabid about it all? 

Between the two sides, the campaigning has been awful. Both equally as bad until leave let Farage on the TV. After that they became the Derby County of 2007-8 to the remain's Villa of 2015-16. 

I dread to think what the next GE will be like. What do you reckon the odds are on the laminated 'no money left' note coming out again!!? 

[blandy]

19 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

you mean people have been fibbing  !!

I'm beginning to suspect so

 

 

[snowychap]

58 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

record exports in April

I don't believe that's correct, is it? This appears to say that the monthly rise is the largest on record (i.e. in the last 18 years) but the total value of goods exports is lower than the record - Beeb:

Quote

The total value of all goods exported jumped by 11.2% on the month, the biggest rise since records started in 1998.

That rise took the value of goods exports in April to £26.123bn - not far from an all-time high set in June 2013.

 

Edited June 9, 2016 by snowychap

[snowychap]

A laughably shite 'campaign' broadcast by the Leave bods on C4 just.

We're just a few years down the road from true US-style campaign adverts, aren't we?

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

record exports in April  .. largely due to the weakness of the £

April and May seeing large amounts of money "leaving " the UK   due to Brexit  fears ( this doesn't actually mean it's leaving more that it's being put into other currencies ) which results in sterling falling further 

 

presumably then the Brexit and the "inevitable" crash means exports will go even higher which means we wont have a crash as exports are higher

 

so that's the economy sorted .. now to deal with those peskey foreigners ....

 

 

On a similar note: 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/brexit-could-be-so-bad-it-s-good-for-the-pound-eventually

 

"Brexit: It's "the most significant event risk of the year," and yet it could ultimately make the pound strengthen, according to Barclays Plc."

[jon_c]

On exports, my other half works in arranging the exports for the firm she's at. And the paperwork and processes for non EU countries (such as Norway) are a nightmare. It takes about three to four more hours work to arrange shipping and invoicing to outside the EU. 

[MakemineVanilla]

I find the attitude of the left towards the question of Brexit a mystery.

At other times they are often heard to complain about inequality, exploitation and the erosion of workers' rights but even though they are aware of the predicament of workers, they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the key contribution of the free movement of labour across the EU to the decline of the power of workers to change things.

I know that the Left just don't read Marx any more and asking them to sweat their way through the Grundrisse is too much to ask but there are alternatives.

There are modern writers like Selina Todd and her book The People: The Rise and Fall of the Working Class.

What she makes clear is that it is full employment and shortage of labour which brings about the biggest gains for working people.

In her book she charts the ebb and flow of good and bad treatment handed out by governments according to the increase or decrease in demand for labour.

A shortage of labour during the build up to WW1 liberated women from the tyranny of domestic service and led to the National Insurance Act of 1911. When the demand for labour declined after the war the government introduced the despised means-test all through the 1920s and conditions for workers deteriorated as unemployment increased, which led to the General Strike in 1926 (via Churchill's return to the gold standard). Things didn't get better until the country started to prepare for WW2 and the greatest gains were made when there was a shortage of labour and concessions were made (the Paid Holiday Act 1938). 

Things continued to improve up until the 1970s when there were more workers than jobs, which culminated in the Thatcher era.

No one can pretend that things have improved in terms of workers' rights and sharing the gains from increased productivity.

The decline has occurred during a time when the free movement of labour from Europe and the rest of the world has increased.

So it is a mystery why Lefties, who claim to support workers rights and the poor, think remaining in Europe offers any sort of protection against further decline, when it deliberately creates the conditions which are least favourable to the working class. 

 

[blandy]

32 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

I find the attitude of the left towards the question of Brexit a mystery.

At other times they are often heard to complain about inequality, exploitation and the erosion of workers' rights but even though they are aware of the predicament of workers, they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the key contribution of the free movement of labour across the EU to the decline of the power of workers to change things....

...No one can pretend that things have improved in terms of workers' rights and sharing the gains from increased productivity.

The decline has occurred during a time when the free movement of labour from Europe and the rest of the world has increased.

So it is a mystery why Lefties, who claim to support workers rights and the poor, think remaining in Europe offers any sort of protection against further decline, when it deliberately creates the conditions which are least favourable to the working class. 

Interesting. Firstly, like with "the right" there isn't a unified viewpoint on the EU. Some are for in, some for out.

Secondly, it's not (to my eyes) as simple as  "the free movement of labour across the EU.. [causing ] .. the decline of the power of workers to change things"

Places as varied as North Korea, China and the USA which strongly limit free movement into their nations are hardly beacons of workers power. Within the West and the EU, there are huge variations. In Germany workers by Law are given a place on Company boards, there is strong unionisation and workers have a great deal of influence and "power". France similarly has many examples of strong workers power. In other nations, less so. It's more something that is affected by national laws and attitudes to unionisation, to capitalism, to zero hours contracts and so on. It's not free movement that's caused a deterioration in workers influence or ability to control or affect their conditions, it's right wing government(s). You're right in so far as a high supply of workers willing to be exploited doesn't help, but it's not a primary cause.

EU law on workers rights, working time, maternity and paternity leave and other aspects has benefited workers, despite opposition from Tories. I've gained from increased productivity (though many haven't). But I don't think that's an EU thing.

[tonyh29]

53 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

I find the attitude of the left towards the question of Brexit a mystery.

 

 

In modern times the Left only got elected when they went Right  so I'm not sure even they know what their attitude is anymore ...

 

The have a leader who is more against Europe than for it but I think (with no real evidence to back this up , just a feeling ) the general plan from Labour HQ is let the Tory party fight and self implode and keep out of it as much as they can   .... Europe damaged the Tory party for years previously and gave Labour a free run during the Blair years  , I suspect this referendum is all of Labours Christmas wishes come true

 

Corbyn gets a go on TV today , wonder if the TV company will hand pick a blogger to ask him some awkward questions .....

 

 

 

[tonyh29]

3 minutes ago, blandy said:

France similarly has many examples of strong workers power

is that the same France whose workers are out on Strike almost every week 

 

[blandy]

15 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

is that the same France whose workers are out on Strike almost every week 

Yes. Exactly. Thank you.

[tonyh29]

 

20 minutes ago, blandy said:

Secondly, it's not (to my eyes) as simple as  "the free movement of labour across the EU.. [causing ] .. the decline of the power of workers to change things"

at a very basic level I just can't really see how free movement for economic migrants can work fairly in an EU with vastly unequal standards  /  economies ? we all heard the anecdotal stories about a tradesman on £150 a day being undercut by a Pole prepared to do it for 47p *a day....  I take it with a large pinch of salt but there is still some evidence that it happened ... enough to cause a rise in the UKIP type feeling towards immigration  , which in turn was enough to get Cameron to call this referendum ( whilst even labour have acknowledged they kinda got it wrong on immigration )

but as such free movement has caused some deterioration in pay  , which ( see junior Doctors) is first and foremost all they (workers) care about ... a study showed each 1% increase in the share of migrants in the UK leads to a 0.6% decline in the wages of the lowest paid workers ( and to an increase in the wages of higher paid workers )

which you think by it's nature (i.e the lowest paid) would be right at the heart of a left wing (Labour ) party ( going back to MMV's post)

 

 

* irreverent exaggeration before anyone jumps down my throat

 

P.s  time for the " ahhh ,  but "  ..... when it's proven that  Unite and Labour MP's were happy to "exploit " people on zero hour contracts I'd say it's not just those evil right wingers exploiting people ....

 

 

 

 

 

[Demitri_C]

Alot of people are worried it will be fixed to stay in as the ministers will never allow this to happen. not sure seems very far fetched

[lapal_fan]

I watched 45 mins of the Brexit movie yesterday.

It seemed alright.  No real information though it must be said.  They pointed out the bureaucracy and the amount of laws for simple things like toothpaste etc, which to be honest, seemed worthwhile because it's laws are there to ensure those things aren't dangerous for consumption, are fit for purpose etc.

The worst thing about it was the facelessness of it all, and if they say "career politicians" one more time, I'd have gotten ear cancer for sure.

Still remain.

[blandy]

52 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

as such free movement has caused some deterioration in pay 

Apparently so, though it's marginal. It's supply and demand, basically. And as you say people from countries that have a different standard of living can come here, work like dogs for a few years in what we consider low paid jobs but which compared to their home nation are well paid.

I wonder though whether the actions of businesses are actually more of a factor in downward pressure on pay.

 

[MakemineVanilla]

It is impossible to understand how anyone could argue that the EU has a stood as any kind of buttress against the erosion of pay and conditions for British workers.

For many workers, the 41 years (1975-2016) the UK has been in Common Market/EU, represents the biggest decline in workers' share of wealth and attack on workers rights ever.

The EU did absolutely nothing to stop the excesses of Thatcherism and Britain were allowed to opt out of the social Chapter of the Maastricht treaty.

In the same period the share of the wealth British workers helped create fell drastically.

To deny these things seems perverse.

[villakram]

That's a global neo-lib thing though. US wages are in the same place too... Thatcher & Regan.

[snowychap]

6 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

a study showed each 1% increase in the share of migrants in the UK leads to a 0.6% decline in the wages of the lowest paid workers

What study?

Edit: Found where Farage/Ukip got their claim from - it's from a PwC report which, according to Politics.co.uk, says:

Quote

There is also some evidence of small, negative impacts of immigration on wages in semi- and low-skilled occupations in the UK as a result of EU and non-EU migration. Research has found that a 1% increase in the share of migrants in the UK-born working age population leads to a 0.6% decline in the wages of the 5% lowest paid workers. However, this study also found that a 1% increase in the inflow of immigrants also leads to a 0.7% increase in the median wage and a 0.5% increase in the top 10% of highest paid workers.

The research from which PwC pulled this also says (under 5 Results):

Quote

In  terms  of  magnitude,  our  estimates  in  column  6  of  table  5  suggest  that each 1 percent increase in the immigrant/native  wor
king age population  ratio led over  the  period  studied  to  a  0.5  percent  decrease  in  wages  at  the  1st  decile,  a  0.6 percent
increase in wages at the median, and a 0.4 percent increase in wages at the 9th  decile.  The  average  increase  in  the  immigrant/native  
working  age  population ratio  over  the  period  considered  was  about  0.35%  per  year,  whereas  the  real hourly  wage  increased  
over  the  period  by  18p  (4.28%)  per  year  at  the  1st  decile, by  25p  (3.25%)  per  year  at  the  median,  and  by  53p  (
3.18%)  per  year  at  the  9th decile  (in  2005  terms).  Therefore  immigration  held wages  back  by  0.7p  per  hour at  the  10th
percentile,  contributed  about  1.5p  per  hour  to  wage  growth  at  the median and slightly more than 2p per hour at the 90th
percentile. 

Apologies about the formatting.

Edited June 10, 2016 by snowychap

[blandy]

15 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said:

It is impossible to understand how anyone could argue that the EU has a stood as any kind of buttress against the erosion of pay and conditions for British workers.....The EU did absolutely nothing to stop the excesses of Thatcherism and Britain were allowed to opt out of the social Chapter of the Maastricht treaty....

In the same period the share of the wealth British workers helped create fell drastically.

To deny these things seems perverse.

It's almost like the UK is run from London, rather than Brussels. A clearly preposterous proposition!

[MakemineVanilla]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

It's almost like the UK is run from London, rather than Brussels. A clearly preposterous proposition!

You sir, are having a laugh!