The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[tonyh29]

33 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It's the fact that it's a valid, logical reason, even if it isn't correct.

[tonyh29]

reports now to expect an 80% turn out on the day

 

that's Remain home and dry if true

[Stevo985]

It's amazing how many people vote when the result actually matters, as opposed to our normal elections.

[MakemineVanilla]

2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

I don't think this was the case ....  at least the evidence doesn't appear to support a late swing , nor does it support the shy Tory view either

good article on it here

 

 

I read that before I opined.

The polls were very accurate when predicting the 2010 election but considering Labour's predicament that is not surprising.

It seems likely that some outcomes are easier to predict than others and that the methodology is less important than the political situation or the nature of the vote.

There was a guy on the news just now, representing the industry, saying that they find it easier to predict outcomes when they know the outcomes of similar previous scenarios (General Elections), which suggests that their predictions are not purely mathematical but are heavily weighted by other factors.

Hardly gives much confidence in the claim that polls are scientific.

 

[snowychap]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Personally, my considered opinion on this, is tough tits.

I very much disagree. If there's a deadline and people are within that deadline and 'systems' screw up then the fault lies with the people responsible for those systems and they should do something to rectify and address it.

 

[Demitri_C]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

I'm the opposite. I think if the registration system breaks, people should be re-given the opportunity that they missed through no fault of their own.

It's a good thing if people register to vote, and the inability of the system to cope with people registering needs sorted.

I mean it's like if you turn up to vote in the specified hours and they have not got enough pencils to let everyone in the Queue vote before 10pm, they should stay open a bit longer, not refuse to let people participate because of an arbitrary deadline.

Spread democracy, not petty disqualification from voting because computer sez no.

Sorry pete I disagree, they have plenty of time to get themselves registered its their problem if system crashed last minute. Its been everywhere for the last 3-4 months!!

[blandy]

2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

I get the sentiment but they have seen what's been happening within Europe over the past years haven't they ? Quantitative easing of  billions / trillions ?  , Europe's jobless rate is over 10% , Households in Greece have lost 24% of income , Cyprus 22%  ....

that anyone can use an economic argument for staying in is almost as baffling as using an immigration or a terrorism arguments for leaving

The unknown is potentially a valid concern it's still why I may vote stay on the 23rd , but increasingly as I read more and more European news I get the feeling even if we vote remain the next Exit country is waiting in the wings

I don't think it's baffling, Tony. Taking those things you listed one by one, and considering them with regard to the UK leaving or staying in the EU

Quantitive Easing - that's been done in the UK and US too and it's been as a consequence of the 2008 Banking crash - it's nowt to do with those pesky Brussels people.

10% unemployment (and worse) in some nations in the Eurozone. The UK isn't in the Eurozone and doesn't have 10% unemployment. It doesn't apply to the UK.

Greece losing 24% of household income. This is complex, but again it's not the situation in the UK. Greece has been stiffed by 2 things - it's own historic attitude to taxation and spending and then the Euro and the enforced (by  those pesky Brussels people) austerity. The EU has undoubtedly been mean to Greece and undemocratic, but what's that got to do with the UK's economics? Nothing.

Cyprus - closely aligned to Greece and the Greek economy, it's suffered because Greece has suffered.

In terms of the UK economy, everything I've seen and heard and read has indicated that leaving the EU will harm out economy. Even some of the leave campaign people have accepted this will be the case. It's the opposite of the immigration thing - it's demonstrably the case that the "argument" is settled for one side or the other in these areas.

Everey time a poll comes out looking like a "Leave" outcome, the pound slips. We know that the UK economy is falling back, investment is grinding to a stop, money is flowing out of the country - all Referendum related.

It's possible that over the longer term everything would come to some new equilibrium, but leaving will definitely harm the economy in the short to medium term. Even the prospect, rather than the reality is causing harm.

[MakemineVanilla]

When you get two consecutive BBC news items, where the first is that young people mostly want to remain, and the next one exhorting them to register, does this count as neutral reporting?

[Chindie]

Absolutely agree that failings in Greece are not indicative of EU harm to the UK. Greece's problems within the EU are not problems that have much to do with the UK's own prospects. Staying in the EU doesn't risk us becoming Greece, just as the threats by Osborne of us being Greece if cuts didn't happen were disingenuous at best and lies at worst.

The economic argument for staying in is miles from baffling. There is currently certainty in the financial world, Britain's place is predicable and steady - it's a member of the EU and that position is known. Upon leaving, that certainty goes out the window, every institution and business and financial entity has the rug pulled from under it's feet and the game changed, more or less overnight. That introduces risks and concerns that mean belts are tightened and risk aversity grows and everything suffers. That is going to cause economic harm in the short and medium term, and depending on the terms of Britain's relationship with the EU, which will change and alter over the at least 24 months it'll take to negotiate (during which time the economy will be all over the place as everyone guesses what's happening good and bad), might never recover to where they are now.

The economic basis to remain is entirely logical.

It would be amusing, if it wasn't also terrifying, that an awful lot of the Leave arguments aren't going to change if we leave. People are kidding themselves if they think we'll withdraw from the single market, and as has been said time and again, the rules of that deal mean we'll still be taking most of the burden of EU membership, but lose status at the negotiating table.

This whole referendum has, as everyone predicted, been farcical. We have a Leave campaign that has an outright lie as a major tentpole slogan, and a Remain campaign that has never managed to sort itself out to explain the position, and has instead relied on a couple of slogans and chucking buckets of figures into press releases. It was always going to be a hard task making the case for Remain into easily digestible and understandable positions, and perhaps impossible, but I'm astonished at the pig's ear they've managed to make of it.

[tonyh29]

18 minutes ago, blandy said:

I don't think it's baffling, Tony. Taking those things you listed one by one, and considering them with regard to the UK leaving or staying in the EU

Quantitive Easing - that's been done in the UK and US too and it's been as a consequence of the 2008 Banking crash - it's nowt to do with those pesky Brussels people.

10% unemployment (and worse) in some nations in the Eurozone. The UK isn't in the Eurozone and doesn't have 10% unemployment. It doesn't apply to the UK.

Greece losing 24% of household income. This is complex, but again it's not the situation in the UK. Greece has been stiffed by 2 things - it's own historic attitude to taxation and spending and then the Euro and the enforced (by  those pesky Brussels people) austerity. The EU has undoubtedly been mean to Greece and undemocratic, but what's that got to do with the UK's economics? Nothing.

Cyprus - closely aligned to Greece and the Greek economy, it's suffered because Greece has suffered.

In terms of the UK economy, everything I've seen and heard and read has indicated that leaving the EU will harm out economy. Even some of the leave campaign people have accepted this will be the case. It's the opposite of the immigration thing - it's demonstrably the case that the "argument" is settled for one side or the other in these areas.

Everey time a poll comes out looking like a "Leave" outcome, the pound slips. We know that the UK economy is falling back, investment is grinding to a stop, money is flowing out of the country - all Referendum related.

It's possible that over the longer term everything would come to some new equilibrium, but leaving will definitely harm the economy in the short to medium term. Even the prospect, rather than the reality is causing harm.

is that definitely as in it will definitely harm us if we don't join the Euro ?

this article in the Independent makes a good argument  , of course it's just a view of one person , but often it's only one person who gets it right

economics is neutral on whether to leave or remain.

 

The EU has undoubtedly been mean to Greece and undemocratic, but what's that got to do with the UK's economics? Nothing.

  what's the weather like on Mars today ?

[tonyh29]

41 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

I read that before I opined.

 

 

so you read the experts opinion and decided to disregard it all

you are Gordon Brown and I claim my 5 bars of Gold

[MakemineVanilla]

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

so you read the experts excuses and decided to disregard it all

you are Gordon Brown and I claim my 5 bars of Gold

Fixed! 

[blandy]

12 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

  what's the weather like on Mars today ?

Well that's convinced me.

[blandy]

36 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

When you get two consecutive BBC news items, where the first is that young people mostly want to remain, and the next one exhorting them to register, does this count as neutral reporting?

In what way would anyone think it's not?

[HanoiVillan]

42 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

When you get two consecutive BBC news items, where the first is that young people mostly want to remain, and the next one exhorting them to register, does this count as neutral reporting?

Yes. 

The first is a bog standard news story. The second is part of the BBC's remit as a public service broadcaster. That's it really.

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

 

 

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Edited June 8, 2016 by chrisp65

[snowychap]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

In part 2, I was going on to say that somebody that has had literally years to get their shit together but leaves it until 10:15pm on the last night doesn't deserve a vote. But not only that, 'there's more'. There should also be a simple comprehension test as part of the ballot paper. Fail the comprehension test, fail to work within some very simple rules and boundaries, and you don't get your vote counted.

If the rule says that you have until 23:59 on the 7th June to register which you can do via the website and you're on there at anytime before that (even if it's 23:58 but especially if it's 22:15 and just after the PM and Farage having their live TV Q&A session) then you've passed the comprehension test. If there are any slackers and idiots to be had with regard to a website crashing so late in the day it's the people who hadn't planned for a last day/last minute rush of people to register.

[MakemineVanilla]

25 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Yes. 

The first is a bog standard news story. The second is part of the BBC's remit as a public service broadcaster. That's it really.

Nice, but should these functions be contiguous?

And, should Labour be shown to be ahead in the polls at some future General Election, would it be right for the BBC to identify a demograph known to support the Tories and exhort them to vote?

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, MakemineVanilla said:

And, should Labour be shown to be ahead in the polls at some future General Election, would it be right for the BBC to identify a demograph known to support the Tories and exhort them to vote?

that rules out any employees of the BBC then

 

[meregreen]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

I get the sentiment but they have seen what's been happening within Europe over the past years haven't they ? Quantitative easing of  billions / trillions ?  , Europe's jobless rate is over 10% , Households in Greece have lost 24% of income , Cyprus 22%  ....

 

that anyone can use an economic argument for staying in is almost as baffling as using an immigration or a terrorism arguments for leaving

 

The unknown is potentially a valid concern it's still why I may vote stay on the 23rd , but increasingly as I read more and more European news I get the feeling even if we vote remain the next Exit country is waiting in the wings

The banking crisis in Greece was caused by a global banking crisis surely ?. Not really attributable to the EU .Likewise, quantitative easing has been a worldwide solution, not just the EU.  Economically, my own view is that the EU is far better placed to take on the might of the USA and China, than we would alone.