The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[sharkyvilla]

30 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Switzerland's treaties with the EU in essence outline agreements that more or less replicate full membership of the single market, including free movement, with the proviso that if they renege on any element of it, the entire deal dies. The Swiss referendum to limit freedom of movement breaks that treaty. The EU is completely understandable in believing the Swiss can't break their deal and expect to keep the bits they like.

Free movement is a tentpole pillar of the market. The EU isn't letting anyone, whether the UK, Norway and anyone else join the 'fight' to have the benefit of membership without supporting the fundamental pillars of the organisation.

It wouldn't surprise me if more countries try and get a similar agreement to us so that you can't access full benefits for four years and if you haven't got a job within six months, you can be sent back home.  Surely the EU can't ignore the rise in anger at the level of immigration across Europe forever, there has to be some sort of compromise.  The problem was never adjusting the rules as more countries got added to the EU.  My worry is that our exit will kick start the change in the rest of the EU, but we won't be the ones who benefit from it.

[blandy]

7 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

 an Exit vote changes all bets surely  ... Either the EU go into Project Spite as some suggest  , or they go into Project Shit what do we do now  ...( or maybe we over estimate our importance and it makes zero difference )

I think regardless of our vote that the EU will have to be looking at a some form of  conciliatory actions if it wants to survive , The French could well be next to have a look at leaving

It would change all bets. I dunno about either/or "spite" etc. I think we'll see all of the above and more. Some will be spiteful, some will be "punish, but not too much that it hurts us", some wlil be punish them to stop others (e.g. France) doing the same, some will be "whatever" some will be "great, we don't sell the UK much, but we can block them selling to us, now", some will be purely pragmatic and some purely political.

Basically it will be a big mess of conflicting interests and approaches, I would guess.

It's for this reason that I'm pretty certain that the economists are right on the impact on our economy. Just the uncertainty will drag down the pound, share prices, pension funds, external investment in the UK and so on, because no one will know WTF is happening for several years.

They might not be able to accurately forecast the exact temperature, but they can accurately forecast it will get colder.

[MakemineVanilla]

25 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

It wouldn't surprise me if more countries try and get a similar agreement to us so that you can't access full benefits for four years and if you haven't got a job within six months, you can be sent back home.  Surely the EU can't ignore the rise in anger at the level of immigration across Europe forever, there has to be some sort of compromise.  The problem was never adjusting the rules as more countries got added to the EU.  My worry is that our exit will kick start the change in the rest of the EU, but we won't be the ones who benefit from it.

I very much doubt that.

Marxist theory would suggest that offering benefits as a human right, as in the EU, is just a means by which advanced economies ensure they attract enough workers to guarantee they have a 'reserve army of labour', the surplus of which allows the capitalists to discipline their workforce into accepting lower wages, insecurity and poor working conditions.

It is working perfectly.

It is only for the fact that this system ensures that there are more workers than jobs that Mike Ashley was able to treat his workers like shit and still attract them: it is notable that the government chose to give him a rap on the knuckles, while refusing to prosecute him or regulate.

 

[HanoiVillan]

3 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

 

tbf the main players all seem to have said that it should have been extended but it was a 2 hour crash , followed by a 2 day extension [1] , that's not really anything to do with democracy being retained [2] it sounds like typical levels of government incompetence followed by a ill thought out panic ... from my reading of it the deadline in order for the Electoral Commission to conduct checks on potentially fraudulent registrations , so you can already see a legal challenge on the cards if the result is close ....

 

More than 300,000 of the 525,000 who applied to register yesterday were under 34 - and that age group, polling suggests, is more likely to back EU membership [3] .. of course if these people can't register in 12 months (or however long they had) [4] , whose to say they are likely to get to the voting booth on time , maybe we should put a contingency in place to allow voting to extend until the 25th June just in case  .... [5]

 

 

 

 

Goodness, where to begin . . . 

[1] I honestly don't understand this point. Why would the extension be two hours long? Are you able to provide a two-hour window in which everybody who was unable to register before the deadline is available to register? Can you organise all of these people to be sat by their computers in that two-hour window? Have you considered that even if you were able to provide a two-hour window in which 100% of these people were available, then the computer system would crash again wouldn't it because that's exactly what happened last time. 

[2] Of course it is. We're talking about people who are entitled to vote, who applied to vote before the registration deadline, and were unable to do so owing to an IT failure. They want to vote, and they should be able to vote, because they're entitled to. 

The way people talk about this issue is bizarre. Like it's some stupid challenge on The Crystal Maze or something, if the egg timer runs out you get locked in! This isn't a game. The aim is to help everyone who is entitled to vote and wants to vote to be able to vote. Why would you want anything else? This is literally what democracy is. Why set up stupid restrictions like a two-hour window to register to vote, when a two-day window is possible?

Oh, hang on, I know why, because . . . 

[3] . . . the wrong people want to vote, obviously.

[4] There are tons of reasons why people might not have registered earlier. They might have just moved house (students often do this!). They might have just turned eighteen (lots of people have turned eighteen since the general election!). They might not have been interested in politics before, but have become interested as the campaign went on (this isn't a bad thing!). Etc etc. It doesn't matter why people were trying to register two hours before the deadline, all that matters is that they were entitled to and unable to do so because of a computer problem. 

[5] I get that you're joking, but this is a non-sequitur. 

[blandy]

13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Goodness, where to begin . . . 

Have a massive like, HV.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Goodness, where to begin . . . 

[1] I honestly don't understand this point. Why would the extension be two hours long? Are you able to provide a two-hour window in which everybody who was unable to register before the deadline is available to register? Can you organise all of these people to be sat by their computers in that two-hour window? Have you considered that even if you were able to provide a two-hour window in which 100% of these people were available, then the computer system would crash again wouldn't it because that's exactly what happened last time. 

[2] Of course it is. We're talking about people who are entitled to vote, who applied to vote before the registration deadline, and were unable to do so owing to an IT failure. They want to vote, and they should be able to vote, because they're entitled to. 

The way people talk about this issue is bizarre. Like it's some stupid challenge on The Crystal Maze or something, if the egg timer runs out you get locked in! This isn't a game. The aim is to help everyone who is entitled to vote and wants to vote to be able to vote. Why would you want anything else? This is literally what democracy is. Why set up stupid restrictions like a two-hour window to register to vote, when a two-day window is possible?

Oh, hang on, I know why, because . . . 

[3] . . . the wrong people want to vote, obviously.

[4] There are tons of reasons why people might not have registered earlier. They might have just moved house (students often do this!). They might have just turned eighteen (lots of people have turned eighteen since the general election!). They might not have been interested in politics before, but have become interested as the campaign went on (this isn't a bad thing!). Etc etc. It doesn't matter why people were trying to register two hours before the deadline, all that matters is that they were entitled to and unable to do so because of a computer problem. 

[5] I get that you're joking, but this is a non-sequitur. 

Goodness , where to begin

 

1) where did I say it should be a 2 hour extension ?

 

2)  we are talking about 200,000 + people aged  24 - 35 so most / all   would have been eligible to vote previously  , if they were that concerned about democracy they would have voted before surely .. that doesn't preclude them from voting this time around of course but had they felt that strongly about the EU they could have voted in the GE and stopped the party that promised a referendum in it's manifesto from winning ( by voting for the party that promised a referendum in it's manifesto and then didn't give one  )

 

3) your words not mine I offered no opinion  ,Unless you are Teresa May I'm curious how you know the voting intentions of all these people though

 

4) you're being too kind to people

 

5) I can't believe you even trying to make this a serious issue

Edited June 9, 2016 by tonyh29

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Goodness , where to begin

5) I can't believe you even trying to make this a serious issue

Definite humour bypass here for a couple of days, place is full of democracy nazis.

----

On a serious note, you can all relax now, Grant Shapps has finally issued his statement we've all been waiting for on how he's going to vote.

Grant Shapps is going to vote....REMAIN

Quote

I will ... vote remain.

We still await news on the voting intentions of Seb Fox and Michael Green.

Edited June 9, 2016 by chrisp65
wooooooshhhhh

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Goodness , where to begin

 

1) where did I say it should be a 2 hour extension ?

 

2)  we are talking about 200,000 + people aged  24 - 35 so most / all   would have been eligible to vote previously  , if they were that concerned about democracy they would have voted before surely .. that doesn't preclude them from voting this time around of course but had they felt that strongly about the EU they could have voted in the GE and stopped the party that promised a referendum in it's manifesto from winning ( by voting for the party that promised a referendum in it's manifesto and then didn't give one  )

 

3) your words not mine I offered no opinion  ,Unless you are Teresa May I'm curious how you know the voting intentions of all these people though

 

4) you're being too kind to people

 

5) I can't believe you even trying to make this a serious issue

On point 1, you might not have been saying that but other people in this thread - within the last five pages - have. 

On point 2, it doesn't matter what they could have done previously, what matters is what they tried to do the day before yesterday. And of course they might have voted in the general election but then moved house. Point remains, they're still entitled to vote. 

On point 3, I didn't start the guessing about who these people would vote for, you did when you wrote, and I quote 'More than 300,000 of the 525,000 who applied to register yesterday were under 34 - and that age group, polling suggests, is more likely to back EU membership'

On point 5, I wasn't really. Just heading you off at the pass in case 

[tonyh29]

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

On point 1, you might not have been saying that but other people in this thread - within the last five pages - have.

 

is it common practise to quote me for stuff other people have written ?

 

5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

On point 3, I didn't start the guessing about who these people would vote for, you did when you wrote, and I quote 'More than 300,000 of the 525,000 who applied to register yesterday were under 34 - and that age group, polling suggests, is more likely to back EU membership'

yes but that was in order to build up to the punchline in point 5 ...

 

I think you owe blandy a refund of a huge like or maybe downgrade to a normal like

 

[tonyh29]

26 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

On a serious note, you can all relax now, Grant Shapps has finally issued his statement we've all been waiting for on how he's going to vote.

Grant Shapps is going to vote....REMAIN

We still await news on the voting intentions of Seb Fox and Michael Green.

don't know why but I always assumed he would be a leave

 

can he vote from prison though or is the election overspend investigation going to be like Chilcot and we get the outcome sometime in 2026

[MakemineVanilla]

This guy thinks people should definitely vote;

 

[tonyh29]

record exports in April  .. largely due to the weakness of the £

April and May seeing large amounts of money "leaving " the UK   due to Brexit  fears ( this doesn't actually mean it's leaving more that it's being put into other currencies ) which results in sterling falling further 

 

presumably then the Brexit and the "inevitable" crash means exports will go even higher which means we wont have a crash as exports are higher

 

so that's the economy sorted .. now to deal with those peskey foreigners ....

 

 

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

so that's the economy sorted .. now to deal with those peskey foreigners ....

We'll have to do it from here, as the pound falling means we can't afford to go over there any more.

I also saw in the papers that the Eurozone is doing better than the UK in economic growth.

 

[Chindie]

5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

record exports in April  .. largely due to the weakness of the £

April and May seeing large amounts of money "leaving " the UK   due to Brexit  fears ( this doesn't actually mean it's leaving more that it's being put into other currencies ) which results in sterling falling further 

 

presumably then the Brexit and the "inevitable" crash means exports will go even higher which means we wont have a crash as exports are higher

 

so that's the economy sorted .. now to deal with those peskey foreigners ....

 

 

Imports presumably ratcheted up in cost alongside this... Otherwise every country on earth would desperately have their currency worth slightly less than dirt.

[snowychap]

6 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Yes, late. Late in the sense of the word that involves common sense and experience of the real world.

No, not late. Not late in the sense of the word that involves looking at a period in which one is told that one can do something and following that. Not late in seeing that something carries on until 10pm so you don't have to turn up at 8am just to be a wazzock who can shout at everyone else because they weren't 'as organized' as you.

It's got sod all to do with 'common sense' and much to do with a lot of sneering, self-satisfied smugness.

Edited June 9, 2016 by snowychap

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

We'll have to do it from here, as the pound falling means we can't afford to go over there any more.

I also saw in the papers that the Eurozone is doing better than the UK in economic growth.

 

the overall growth was slightly eroded by increased imports though wasn't it ?

but whilst Germany , France and Italy had impressive growths .. Poland , Greece and Hungary all contracted  .. which suggests the overall EU growth is being kinda subsidised by a few countries ...

 

[blandy]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

whilst Germany , France and Italy had impressive growths .. Poland , Greece and Hungary all contracted  .. which suggests the overall EU growth is being kinda subsidised by a few countries

TBH I was just surprised, as the vote people have been saying stuff about how the Eurozone economy is wrecked etc. and then I saw that the Eurozone as a whole is doing better than the UK. (yeah, I'm sure parts are doing  very well and other parts v bad, but still, it was counter to what's been said recently - the kind of "don't worry about trade with them, they're tanked", stuff).

[tonyh29]

7 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Imports presumably ratcheted up in cost alongside this... Otherwise every country on earth would desperately have their currency worth slightly less than dirt.

yes seems to be the answer   ... but although Imports were at a record high , the exports were sufficiently high to help shrink the deficit  by .2 bn  (in April , taken on the quarter the deficit rose )

 

[tonyh29]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

TBH I was just surprised, as the vote people have been saying stuff about how the Eurozone economy is wrecked etc. and then I saw that the Eurozone as a whole is doing better than the UK. (yeah, I'm sure parts are doing  very well and other parts v bad, but still, it was counter to what's been said recently - the kind of "don't worry about trade with them, they're tanked", stuff).

you mean people have been fibbing  !!

 

funnily enough , if we vote leave then there is a feeling it could be  ( in so much as the growth expectations aren't expected to continue)

 

it's almost like there is a deal to be made somewhere between the 2 parties

[Stevo985]

I imagine the reason most of the people who didn't register until yesterday waited until the last day was because they didn't realise that they either needed to be registered or that yesterday was the deadline.

 

I didn't know if I was registered (I was) and didn't think to check until I learned that yesterday was the deadline to vote, which was also yesterday.