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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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14 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Grauniad politics live blog:

Typical. They don't know what they're doing.

I'm not sure Kwarteng ever knew what he was doing. But yes, I imagine that the rather well-known scene from Downfall is being played out somewhere in number ten, not with the full cabinet, of course, just the ones with May's axle grease on their tongues

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Hundreds of gagging orders regarding Brexit impact according to Sky,  proper sinister ones according to the Independent.

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Hospitals have been ordered not to tell the public about any damage they expect to suffer from Brexit because it would hurt commercial interests.

Independent

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9 minutes ago, Chindie said:

 

My mate has been told to stock up on insulin, thing is, they'll only give him a months prescription at a time and currently have to split it into two weeks then two weeks. Arsecretins

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19 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Have to say, the 'Downfall' comparison had occurred to me as well. Certainly not a stretch to describe May as having a 'bunker mentality'. 

 

It's time to invoke the spirit of Dunkirk.

Leap into small boats, and flee.

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Looking forward to time after the Brexit bomb has exploded and we're out in the world trying to make trade deals with countries that see us as a wounded deer, here's the US governments Negotiating Objectives Document for the UK.

Those who know these things better than I have commented on the language being much more instructive and domineering than on trade deals the US has made with Canada or Japan, and that the document makes it clear that the US is expecting a very compliant UK.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

Just about every paragraph contains something slightly horrific, and the section on SOE's (Like the NHS) isn't at all reassuring. 

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We are committed to concluding these negotiations with timely and substantive results for U.S. consumers, businesses, farmers, ranchers, and workers, consistent with U.S. priorities and the negotiating objectives established by Congress in statute.

Anyway, I think it's worth reading stuff like this to get an idea of what Brexit actually is - the reasons why we're leaving, those that stand to benefit and the likely future ahead for us either with or without a deal with the EU.

 

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So how do we think this is going to play out now?

I'll say the WA will come back Monday (Bercow will allow as it comes with the extension attached). It'll go down again although I think the ERG (or most of them) will back it. We'll then have indicative votes, but I don't think anyone can have a clue what the outcome of that will be. I reckon it'll be Customs Union + Single Market now.

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11 minutes ago, bickster said:

I don't think the extension counts as significantly different

It would take a very brave speaker to deny it.

Anyway. A lot of the throbbers are going mental over the prospect of indicative votes. You can literally hear them bricking it that they're about to find out just how tiny a minority they really are. Of course they could resign the whip like Soubry and the hard remainers...but they won't because they've always been the biggest cowards in the room.

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19 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

So how do we think this is going to play out now?

I'll say the WA will come back Monday (Bercow will allow as it comes with the extension attached). It'll go down again although I think the ERG (or most of them) will back it. We'll then have indicative votes, but I don't think anyone can have a clue what the outcome of that will be. I reckon it'll be Customs Union + Single Market now.

Yes, quite possible.  The repeated request from the EU for the HoC to demonstrate where there is majority support for something, anything, increases the pressure to take formal votes on options other than "my deal or nothing".  In that situation it would be odd not to allow another vote on May's deal alongside other options.

If a majority can be shown to exist for something, which would presumably not be either May's deal or no deal, the question will then be whether she steps down or is told to step aside in order to allow that to be proposed to the EU, or if she fronts it up with the EU and swallows yet more humiliation.

The better option would still be to revoke and spend much longer exploring pros and cons of various options, but that seems unlikely to get a majority.

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Isn't it best if the vote 3.0 is allowed to take place, just so that amendments offering something different can be added?

If there's nothing to vote on, then there might be no chance for the House to have it's say...? (assuming the worst case scenario that indicative votes don't happen and May goes ahead with deal or no deal)

Edited by fightoffyour
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26 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

 

As that's their thinking on a Friday afternoon, we can be almost guaranteed that it won't be their thinking on Monday (unless they've already changed their mind once over the weekend in which case they might change it back again).

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MPs To Be Offered ‘Knock-Out’ Voting System To Break Logjam On Brexit

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MPs could stage a series of ‘knock-out’ votes on Brexit under a radical new plan to stop the UK from crashing out of the EU without a deal, HuffPost UK can reveal.

After the historic defeat of Theresa May’s proposals on Tuesday, cross-party moves are underway to effectively force the House of Commons to find a majority for an alternative way forward.

Under a new amendment drafted by Welsh party Plaid Cymru, MPs would be asked to list their preference for a range of options including a Norway-style Brexit, a second referendum and remaining in the EU.

In a dramatic bid to break the parliamentary logjam, the traditional Commons voting system would be replaced by a series of ‘run-offs’ to find the one solution which commands most support.

The least popular option would be eliminated and a fresh vote held on those remaining, until a single solution is arrived at.

Many political parties use such multi-round votes for their own internal elections. In a bid to woo Tory support, one system proposed under the plan would be that used by the Conservatives to elect their party leader.

Blogging for HuffPost UK, Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards said: “As we saw last night, there is no majority support for the British government’s chosen Brexit policy.

“This is despite the reckless manner in which the prime minister has run down the clock.

“It seems to me that at this point of high crisis a potential safety net could be deployed by using a voting system designed to ensure a majority conclusion.”

Some MPs, including cabinet ministers, have backed the idea of ‘indicative votes’ on Plan B proposals for Brexit.

But indicative votes, while considering each option in turn, still run the risk of failing to find a majority for any proposal.

The new plan would abandon the binary ‘aye/noe’ voting system and instead force a choice by removing the least popular options in turn.

Six different Brexit options would be on the ballot paper: ‘no-deal’, a ‘Canada-plus’ free trade deal, May’s revised deal, ‘Norway-plus’, a second referendum and remaining in the EU.

MPs would stage a series of votes, knocking out the most unpopular choices until they arrived at a single winning solution.

A cross-party body approved by all the Westminster party leaders would be created to swiftly decide by consensus which precise voting system was used and which Brexit options were included.

The ‘working group’ would be similar to that used to address recent allegations of bullying and harassment in Westminster.

As well as the ‘iterative run-off’ or ‘Weakest Link’ system used by the Tories, an ‘alternative vote’ system, used by Labour for its leadership elections, would be considered.

The Plaid Cymru plan would take the form of an amendment to the PM’s next formal motion on Brexit, expected next Monday.

In the wake of her shattering 230-vote defeat on Tuesday night, the prime minister said she would hold meetings with “senior parliamentarians” from different parties to identify “what would be required to secure the backing of the House”. 

Plaid Cymru’s own preference is for a second referendum.

Funnily enough, if the above votes were to take place in an open ballot, I think the last one standing might well be the current WA and Political Declaration.

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