chrisp65 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 I'm just glad they're our civilised democratic bombs and we have teachers and trainers in the room so they don't get mis used. Just imagine how much worse it would be to have your children shredded by a bastard russian bomb. If only Ford Bridgend or British Steel or Swindon Honda were making freedom rockets. Then the government could support them blindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) 50 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't see why May wouldn't recommend him, or why he would immediately lose a VoC. If there does end up being a split, it will probably happen in October. I suppose it depends upon your interpretation of the phrase 'who can best command the confidence' - if she believes that no one can best command the confidence of the House (i.e. that anyone else would certainly lose a vote of confidence) then I'm not so sure where that leaves us. Why he might immediately lose a Vote of Confidence was explained in my post, i.e. if his campaign in the next four weeks stresses the No Deal part of things then I think there'll be many more than Grieve and others who would move against it. I know there may be the shouts of 'Tories gonna Tory' but in this situation I think that the outstanding voices against no deal would be more willing to make a stand than usual. Edit: Obviously, it's all guessing and some of what I've said is dependent upon how the next month pans out (I don't for one moment accept the idea that there won't be plenty of dirt thrown between the two chimps arguing over the swing). Edited June 20, 2019 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 45 minutes ago, peterms said: It appears that neither her party nor her church have a problem with this. "Getting on" in Tory parlance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Xann said: "Getting on" in Tory parlance Also providing employment, in the same way that sending armies to butcher people abroad provided employment for those who had been thrown off their land. Like there's no other, more socially worthwhile way of using these resources. Or no way that returns a fat profit for parasites. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 (edited) 9 hours ago, snowychap said: I suppose it depends upon your interpretation of the phrase 'who can best command the confidence' - if she believes that no one can best command the confidence of the House (i.e. that anyone else would certainly lose a vote of confidence) then I'm not so sure where that leaves us. Why he might immediately lose a Vote of Confidence was explained in my post, i.e. if his campaign in the next four weeks stresses the No Deal part of things then I think there'll be many more than Grieve and others who would move against it. I know there may be the shouts of 'Tories gonna Tory' but in this situation I think that the outstanding voices against no deal would be more willing to make a stand than usual. Edit: Obviously, it's all guessing and some of what I've said is dependent upon how the next month pans out (I don't for one moment accept the idea that there won't be plenty of dirt thrown between the two chimps arguing over the swing). Johnson is highly unlikely to be in a position where he would certainly lose a vote of confidence prior to taking number 10. I haven't yet seen any Tory MP suggest that they would resign from the party to vote no confidence, and don't forget that Change UK (or whatever they're called these days) are committed to voting confidence in the government. The leadership campaign is unlikely to force Johnson to nail his colours to the No Deal mast. If the contest had been between Raab and Johnson, it's possible to imagine Raab, down in the head-to-head polls and a true believer in disaster capitalism, stating outright support for No Deal, and then Johnson being forced to wriggle. Instead, he faces Hunt, who is correctly regarded as a squish on Brexit by party members, and who is unlikely to force Johnson to commit to No Deal. Instead, Johnson simply needs to be a little further to the right than Hunt on Brexit (his posture of inflexibility on the departure date is meant to achieve this, IMO) and then let his popularity with party members carry him the rest of the way. This is why I say any split won't happen until October. Johnson will begin a round of touring EU capitals, and EU leaders will welcome him and like the idea of keeping him away from Brussels. There will be enough ambiguity in rhetoric that Tory remainers/soft Brexiteers (who don't want to split the party, after all) will be able to convince themselves that Johnson might be persuaded to shift the departure date after all, and for the rest of the party to believe that he won't. It will become increasingly clear what he's actually going to do, and what if anything he has got from Europe, after party conference season. EDIT regarding your EDIT: I don't know whether it will be a 'dirty fight' or not. You may well be right that it will. However, one possibility to consider is the position of Chancellor in Johnson's government: he will need to appoint one, and that person will need to have more credibility with the business community than he does, and hence be less committed to No Deal. In other words, they will need to be a 'moderate', though less of a moderate than Philip Hammond, who is hated by party members. This seems to me to be the space that Hunt himself occupies (along with plenty of others, of course) and one possible way of imagining the campaign to play out would be a fairly non-contact campaign, in which Hunt spent most of his time burnishing his credentials with the CBI etc, and then is given number 11 in an act of 'unity' and 'bringing the party together'. Of course, that may very well not happen, but it's just a thought as to one way the campaign might not be that mud-slinging. Edited June 21, 2019 by HanoiVillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 40 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Johnson is highly unlikely to be in a position where he would certainly lose a vote of confidence prior to taking number 10. I haven't yet seen any Tory MP suggest that they would resign from the party to vote no confidence, and don't forget that Change UK (or whatever they're called these days) are committed to voting confidence in the government. The leadership campaign is unlikely to force Johnson to nail his colours to the No Deal mast. If the contest had been between Raab and Johnson, it's possible to imagine Raab, down in the head-to-head polls and a true believer in disaster capitalism, stating outright support for No Deal, and then Johnson being forced to wriggle. Instead, he faces Hunt, who is correctly regarded as a squish on Brexit by party members, and who is unlikely to force Johnson to commit to No Deal. Instead, Johnson simply needs to be a little further to the right than Hunt on Brexit (his posture of inflexibility on the departure date is meant to achieve this, IMO) and then let his popularity with party members carry him the rest of the way. This is why I say any split won't happen until October. Johnson will begin a round of touring EU capitals, and EU leaders will welcome him and like the idea of keeping him away from Brussels. There will be enough ambiguity in rhetoric that Tory remainers/soft Brexiteers (who don't want to split the party, after all) will be able to convince themselves that Johnson might be persuaded to shift the departure date after all, and for the rest of the party to believe that he won't. It will become increasingly clear what he's actually going to do, and what if anything he has got from Europe, after party conference season. EDIT regarding your EDIT: I don't know whether it will be a 'dirty fight' or not. You may well be right that it will. However, one possibility to consider is the position of Chancellor in Johnson's government: he will need to appoint one, and that person will need to have more credibility with the business community than he does, and hence be less committed to No Deal. In other words, they will need to be a 'moderate', though less of a moderate than Philip Hammond, who is hated by party members. This seems to me to be the space that Hunt himself occupies (along with plenty of others, of course) and one possible way of imagining the campaign to play out would be a fairly non-contact campaign, in which Hunt spent most of his time burnishing his credentials with the CBI etc, and then is given number 11 in an act of 'unity' and 'bringing the party together'. Of course, that may very well not happen, but it's just a thought as to one way the campaign might not be that mud-slinging. It may well play out as you suggest. I happen to think that you're being overly optimistic in your outlook. I don't think it lasts until then. I hope it doesn't, tbh. Some la la land until October and then a sudden realisation that Oct 31st is the corner in to which they've painted not only themselves but all of us may well turn out to be the biggest nightmare possible. I think the one problem with the whole unity idea is that it lacks a path to the future. Unity between the two candidates and an agreement that they both end up patting each other on the back claiming to have united the party leaves them both vulnerable and probably out of office before the end of the year. I don't think that both candidates (or at least the people in their teams) are that kamikaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: Johnson is highly unlikely to be in a position where he would certainly lose a vote of confidence I don't know why you began your post with this. I'm pretty sure that I haven't said anything with certainty so to weigh in with this as your opening suggests a lack of consideration for the points I was making and an overconfidence in the points that you were making - which is a shame. Edited June 21, 2019 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 21, 2019 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2019 My thoughts this morning are that Hunt may do a Leadsome for some future position in the cabinet (possibly Chancellor), this of course depends upon Boris' opinion of working with Hunt, It has a lot of pluses for oris though, he won't have made as many promises to get elected to the 160,000 throbbers and he gets the prize ealrier. One suspects Hunt would take the deal in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, bickster said: oris There's a going on the b of the bang joke in there, somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post theboyangel Posted June 21, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 21, 2019 this made me chuckle, some people have way too much time on their hands 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 21, 2019 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2019 By-election for Brecon and Radnor, petition has achieved the numbers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhatAboutTheFinish Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 35 minutes ago, bickster said: By-election for Brecon and Radnor, petition has achieved the numbers Should be an easy LibDem gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 21, 2019 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 minute ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said: Should be an easy LibDem gain. Agreed, it's tradionally a seat that flips between the Tories and them and you'd think under current circumstances the LD's should win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 21, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted June 21, 2019 Suspended as a foreign office minister already. That shouldn't be the end of the matter... ...what money it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Mark Field was simply practising what he preaches: Quote ... When it came to the actual demonstrations taking place, however, Field was more conflicted and went as far as to write to the Met police commissioner, Cressida Dick, demanding that she “take a much firmer grip” on those “protesting in this anti-social way”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Next PM will face huge challenge to command Commons confidence Quote The next Conservative prime minister will face serious questions over whether they can command the confidence of the House of Commons, MPs have said after the party’s already vulnerable majority was put in further danger by the recall of a disgraced MP. Several MPs told the Guardian they had “huge concerns” about whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would be able to avoid an autumn election, given the Conservatives could lose another MP in an imminent byelection forced by the recall of Chris Davies. The loss would give the Tories a working majority of three, and at least two MPs, Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve, have said they would vote against their party if necessary in a confidence vote in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit. ... They added that if Johnson won on the back of support from the the European Research Group of hard-Brexit Tories, the party could lose the backing of pro-Europeans MPs, such as Dominic Grieve, Antoinette Sandbach and Philip Lee. ...rest of article on link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 4 hours ago, Chindie said: Suspended as a foreign office minister already. That shouldn't be the end of the matter... ...what money it is? What a craven shit stain. I would have liked to have seen him try to do that to a man of equal size to him. The Tory bell ends applauded him for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 it's hardly going to influence his chances though, is it I mean, anyone that got to 20th June 2019 without realising he's a prick is hardly going to change their mind now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted June 21, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted June 21, 2019 (edited) Boris is the start of a change in UK politics that's going to hurt us all.........but it's the start of a change that will see us getting better leaders. Any system that allows a person so limited in his ability to govern as he is, has to change and the same goes for Corbyn, who's principles are good...but he is as far away as a leader than you can get . A sort of polar opposite to Churchill. Edited June 21, 2019 by tinker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted June 22, 2019 Moderator Share Posted June 22, 2019 I think I might prefer Boris to Hunt. It's like picking between lung or bowel cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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