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Relegation Thread Version...99?!


jackbauer24

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39 minutes ago, Mantis said:

I don't - I just don't see it happening.

What I worry about is being stuck in mid-table although I think that's just as likely as us doing well.

On what basis do you think we wont struggle or are just as likely to do well? I'd like to know because at this point to me it can only be because we are Aston Villa

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4 minutes ago, Richard said:

On what basis do you think we wont struggle or are just as likely to do well? I'd like to know because at this point to me it can only be because we are Aston Villa

I never said we won't struggle, just that I don't think we'll be in a relegation battle. To me, if we're middling around mid-table with little chance of promotion but also little chance of relegation then that's still struggling.

I think we could do well because we'll still have more resources than most other teams in that division and I don't actually think the Championship is as good as some make out.

Now I'd like to know why you seem so convinced that we'll do really badly? You could point to how badly we've performed this season but then again I seem to recall you saying we'll probably struggle in the Championship previously in seasons where we've actually been in a proper relegation battle rather than cut adrift like we are now.

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1 minute ago, Mantis said:

I never said we won't struggle, just that I don't think we'll be in a relegation battle. To me, if we're middling around mid-table with little chance of promotion but also little chance of relegation then that's still struggling.

I think we could do well because we'll still have more resources than most other teams in that division and I don't actually think the Championship is as good as some make out.

Now I'd like to know why you seem so convinced that we'll do really badly? You could point to how badly we've performed this season but then again I seem to recall you saying we'll probably struggle in the Championship previously in seasons where we've actually been in a proper relegation battle rather than cut adrift like we are now.

Interesting comment. Take Bournemouth/Watford and Norwich from last year. Take Derby/Middlesboro/Hull and possibly Burnley/Hull/Ipswich/Sheff Wed this year. Add in Sunderland/Swansea/Newcastle or whomever may come down with you and I would suggest that your only target should be top 6. That is what you must aim for.

Money is irrelevant, Fan base is irrelevant. Structure and belief are more important. Round pegs in round holes.

Your average home gate this season is what, 35000 or so? Genuine question, how many will disappear on relegation? 5000? more? less? 

Add to this the fact that every club will want to beat you and it will be a struggle, but not an unwinnable one.

The Championship is a slog but there are always 5 or 6 teams at the top end who could probably compete in the lower end of the Premier League.

I'm a Derby fan (my son is a massive Villa fan) and we have both waited for years to go to a league game between us. I really hope we don't pass like ships in the night! But that would most likely mean we don't go up which would make me sad :(

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For me Villa are at an all time low as a top division club without a doubt at the moment, far worse than the 1987 team. I went to most games in the old 2nd division the following season and had a great time. We got off to a very slow start if i remember and kept drawing games 1-1, many fans started to say we were doomed but then gradually we started to climb the table and ended up being promoted in 2nd place behind Millwall if i remember correctly with Alan McInally scoring tons of great goals . We went on to finish 2nd in the 1st division the following year.

I also think that with a few good additions (And that is the bit which worries me as to whether this club will recruit well or not) and if we can keep some of our better players alongside, that we have a very good chance.

The main threats down there would be from the teams that come down with us of course along with the ones who get close but miss out on promotion this season.

The issue of course is if we continue with this disastrous recruitment policy.

 

Edited by danceoftheshamen
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2 hours ago, Mantis said:

I never said we won't struggle, just that I don't think we'll be in a relegation battle. To me, if we're middling around mid-table with little chance of promotion but also little chance of relegation then that's still struggling.

I think we could do well because we'll still have more resources than most other teams in that division and I don't actually think the Championship is as good as some make out.

Now I'd like to know why you seem so convinced that we'll do really badly? You could point to how badly we've performed this season but then again I seem to recall you saying we'll probably struggle in the Championship previously in seasons where we've actually been in a proper relegation battle rather than cut adrift like we are now.

Mantis I've answered the point as to why we'll struggle a few times but I will do so again in  a few minutes for you.

Before I do can you just clarify what the bit in bold means from your post Ive quoted. Also the bit Ive underlined presumably you dont believe then we'll be middling around mid table?  You expect us to be in or around the play off / automatic promotion places?

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2 hours ago, ColonelBlimp said:

Interesting comment. Take Bournemouth/Watford and Norwich from last year. Take Derby/Middlesboro/Hull and possibly Burnley/Hull/Ipswich/Sheff Wed this year. Add in Sunderland/Swansea/Newcastle or whomever may come down with you and I would suggest that your only target should be top 6. That is what you must aim for.

Money is irrelevant, Fan base is irrelevant. Structure and belief are more important. Round pegs in round holes.

Your average home gate this season is what, 35000 or so? Genuine question, how many will disappear on relegation? 5000? more? less? 

Add to this the fact that every club will want to beat you and it will be a struggle, but not an unwinnable one.

The Championship is a slog but there are always 5 or 6 teams at the top end who could probably compete in the lower end of the Premier League.

I'm a Derby fan (my son is a massive Villa fan) and we have both waited for years to go to a league game between us. I really hope we don't pass like ships in the night! But that would most likely mean we don't go up which would make me sad :(

Interesting comments yourself.

I don't think money is irrelevant, plenty of teams have bought their way out of the Championship in the very recent past, the likes of Cardiff, Leicester and Watford being recent examples that spring instantly to mind. It is no different to any other league in the world in that respect and to suggest otherwise is a bit misty eyed. 

We are still getting 35k now and we've not won at home in NINE MONTHS. I would suggest an average of 30-32k is reasonable, higher if we start winning games. If we win a few on the bounce we will be back to 35k easily. 

Every club should want to beat every other club every week. Though I agree with you that we will be a "target" I find it incredible that professionals don't go out with that attitude every single week. 

I would also add that it is easy to look at our points total and thing we must be absolute dog shit. To an extent we are just that, but I am of the firm belief that it is confined to key areas. We've not had a fully fit central defence to pick from all season, our 'keeper is a shambles and we don't have a central striker who can score goals. We, unlike Derby of a few years back (no offence) are competing in games up to a point, but either a stupid error or a lack of a capable striker lets us down. Heads drop, confidence rocks, can't buy a win. On top of that we had the worst manager in our history in charge for the first 3 months of the season.

Replace Gestede with Austin and Guzan with a lamppost and we'd be "competitive". 

Don't get me wrong, we'd have a lot of work to do and I don't necessarily trust our lot at the top to do it right, but they will knuckle down and we do have the core of a side that shouldn't be where it is. I'm looking forward to the challenge.

I hope you stay down myself, I've always had a mild soft spot for Derby since the days of Tommy Johnson and ITV football, will be good to finally pay a visit to Pride Park. 

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I think basically the manager needs to use the next 20 games to start to put a team together for the Championship next year. Give a few of the younger lads a go (cannot get any worse) and try a few new formations and ideas, if we lose what difference will it make to the first 18 games. During the start of January they need to sit down with each member of the squad and find out who is in for getting us out of the Championship next year. Those that don't fancy it, fine thanks and good luck elsewhere.

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4 hours ago, Mantis said:

I don't - I just don't see it happening.

What I worry about is being stuck in mid-table although I think that's just as likely as us doing well.

happened to Wolves and their squad that went down was probably better than what we have now and other teams that finish rock bottom rarely start brightly the following season

Wolves was a rotten club just like we are at the moment

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3 hours ago, useless said:

Two wins on the bounce and a signing like Austin or Remy.

Problem is we've been saying that for 8 games.

For those worried about mid table in the championship, I'd probably rather have that than this shit. At least we'd have won a few.

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5 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Interesting comments yourself.

I don't think money is irrelevant, plenty of teams have bought their way out of the Championship in the very recent past, the likes of Cardiff, Leicester and Watford being recent examples that spring instantly to mind. It is no different to any other league in the world in that respect and to suggest otherwise is a bit misty eyed. 

We are still getting 35k now and we've not won at home in NINE MONTHS. I would suggest an average of 30-32k is reasonable, higher if we start winning games. If we win a few on the bounce we will be back to 35k easily. 

Every club should want to beat every other club every week. Though I agree with you that we will be a "target" I find it incredible that professionals don't go out with that attitude every single week. 

I would also add that it is easy to look at our points total and thing we must be absolute dog shit. To an extent we are just that, but I am of the firm belief that it is confined to key areas. We've not had a fully fit central defence to pick from all season, our 'keeper is a shambles and we don't have a central striker who can score goals. We, unlike Derby of a few years back (no offence) are competing in games up to a point, but either a stupid error or a lack of a capable striker lets us down. Heads drop, confidence rocks, can't buy a win. On top of that we had the worst manager in our history in charge for the first 3 months of the season.

Replace Gestede with Austin and Guzan with a lamppost and we'd be "competitive". 

Don't get me wrong, we'd have a lot of work to do and I don't necessarily trust our lot at the top to do it right, but they will knuckle down and we do have the core of a side that shouldn't be where it is. I'm looking forward to the challenge.

I hope you stay down myself, I've always had a mild soft spot for Derby since the days of Tommy Johnson and ITV football, will be good to finally pay a visit to Pride Park. 

Play Gestede in goal you say... :detect:

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