HanoiVillan Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Tracy Brabin walking away with the West Yorkshire mayor position. So another by-election coming up in Batley & Spen. He goes on to suggest a number of other names in subsequent tweets, but a different (locked) account that sometimes 'knows things' suggests Rachel Reeves is pushing very hard for Ms Arif, so until further notice I'm going to assume she's the presumptive nominee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 1 minute ago, bickster said: Labour haven't been that popular in Hartlepool for 11 years. It's only 2015 that they'd have won it if it was a straight two way fight, That Starmer rubbish. They got 52% of the vote in 2017 . . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 9, 2021 Moderator Share Posted May 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: They got 52% of the vote in 2017 . . . Maybe it was 17 and not 15 then? EDIT: yep it was 2017 not 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 1 minute ago, bickster said: Maybe it was 17 and not 15 then? I think that must be the one you mean, because one thing is for sure, it doesn't matter how the opposition vote splits if you get 52%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, bickster said: Typically you concentrate on the wrong part of the post. I'm ignoring the Starmer rubbish, it's not particularly relevant to looking at the last result. Labour haven't been that popular in Hartlepool for 11 years. It's only 2015 that they'd have won it if it was a straight two way fight, That Starmer rubbish. Same point here, If the bizarre Woolly trousered Yorkshire Brexit Party don't stand (6.5K votes) and the Brexit Party sorry Reform UK (votes 1.5k) collapse further, those votes will naturally transfer to the Tories, effecitvely they are 4k behind before they start The Woollen independents are an offshoot of UKIP originally, but I'm not sure that they are quite the same as Reform UK in their likely effects or distribution of their voters. For one thing, they are locally-focused (rather than nationally), so they may have appealed to some of the type of voter that votes for weird local formations in council elections. I'm not sure that's necessarily better for Labour (in fact it could be worse), but it's a bit of a difference. Secondly, I think they may well feel it is a necessity to stand and compete for the seat, both based on their result last time, and because their leader was the former chairman of the UKIP branch in the seat, and if you're not going to compete in a by-election in your area when the whole country is watching, what are you doing really. The pattern of the Labour vote in Hartlepool was one of decline from 1997 to 2019, broken only by by-elections and an uptick in 2017. By contrast, Labour has held very steady margins in Batley & Spen. The 3.5k vote margin of 2019 looks precarious, but Labour have held the seat since 1997. Every time, they have had a margin of 3k-6k votes, with the exception of 2017 when the margin was 9k. Their vote isn't really in a pattern of decline in the area in the way it is in Hartlepool. Labour may end up doing a lot of expectations management, but they really have no excuse for losing this seat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 They need to be bloody careful with the flag shagging, considering the connections with Jo Cox to Batley and Spen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Rachel Reeves has been made shadow chancellor you say? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted May 9, 2021 Moderator Share Posted May 9, 2021 Tough on benefits, tough on immigration. Pound shop Priti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted May 9, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2021 I wonder if you were to compare the Shadow Cabinet tonight to the Shadow Cabinet on Friday, which would be more right wing? I'd put money on more right. Why waste a crisis to finish the job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted May 10, 2021 Author Share Posted May 10, 2021 Starmers all over the shop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Starmers all over the shop Yep - this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 This seems, uhhh, pointed: Sensible of her to start positioning herself now, from a position of strength. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 10, 2021 Moderator Share Posted May 10, 2021 15 hours ago, darrenm said: Anyone remember the episode of the office where Michael Scott had to fire someone but they all just kept telling him no? They don't learn, do they - I mean Corbyn or Starmer, if you refuse to accept the choices and validity of the leader, then you're not going to prosper in the Country. Panicky self interest isn't a good look. How not to look like you're ready to govern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, blandy said: They don't learn, do they - I mean Corbyn or Starmer, if you refuse to accept the choices and validity of the leader, then you're not going to prosper in the Country. Panicky self interest isn't a good look. How not to look like you're ready to govern. Particularly if your entire brand is "look at us - we're the calm, capable, professional ones" If you're going to be a semi-competent rabble, you might as well be the ones that people can get a bit excited about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted May 10, 2021 Moderator Share Posted May 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, ml1dch said: If you're going to be a semi-competent rabble... Can I stop you there? Don't be that, Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, blandy said: Can I stop you there? Don't be that, Labour. It's impossible not to be. It's full of human beings who aren't sociopaths therefore they won't all unite around a common purpose of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Demitri_C said: Starmers all over the shop He seems to have gone quite mad. He wants some new bold ideas apparantley. Shouldn't you have these amazing ideas hidden up your sleeve ready to pull them out like a bunch of flowers in the style of Timothy Claypole or just hope "The Team" might have some. He should have his own set ? Like Policy top trumps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: This seems, uhhh, pointed: Sensible of her to start positioning herself now, from a position of strength. Is it a position of a strength? She was Labours "National Campaign Coordinator" in an election where they were thoroughly licked. I'd say it's hard to argue that she shouldn't be held highly (although by no means totally) culpable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts