The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[a m ole]

3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

My extensive research into the current strengths of the Labour party and the voting habits and preferences of the UK electorate has lead me to believe that there are only two sensible proposals in terms of a new leader for the Labour party following these elections; someone Welsh or Danny Dyer.

 

 

 

I’ve heard worse ideas. Some are suggesting Rebecca Long-Bailey

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

My extensive research into the current strengths of the Labour party and the voting habits and preferences of the UK electorate has lead me to believe that there are only two sensible proposals in terms of a new leader for the Labour party following these elections; someone Welsh or Danny Dyer.

 

 

 

Most people seem to be suggesting someone who isn't an MP. I don't fancy Labours chances of getting him elected as an MP in a By-election right now even if he was stupid enough to run for the job

[Jareth]

Foil hat theory - Starmer's not actually a bad bloke and has spent the last 12 months doing what he was told by the likes of Mandleson - but will now go back to those 10 pledges. It's possible - given we don't yet actually know who he is or what he believes in. That said, I expect the imminent sacking of any remaining lefties in the shadow cabinet. 

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

My extensive research into the current strengths of the Labour party and the voting habits and preferences of the UK electorate has lead me to believe that there are only two sensible proposals in terms of a new leader for the Labour party following these elections; someone Welsh or Danny Dyer.

 

 

 

It’ll have to be Danny Dyer, the english media absolutely would not tolerate another Welsh Windbag.

 

[HanoiVillan]

It's going to go under-covered in the post-election recriminations, but the gradual, glacial shift toward Labour in the south-east and south-west is still happening:

The problem for Labour is this process is running about 10-15 years behind the 'retired northern and Midlands homeowners become comfortable voting for the Tories' trend.

[blandy]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

So, Mark Drakeford is a million miles from a populist. He reluctantly took the job, and has said he will quit mid way through this term. He’s slow, steady, considered.

But he’s also in power, and has delivered everything he has said he would deliver. Vaccines, done.

Along with @dAVe80's excellent posts, I think this is key.

Vaccine bounce - tick. Actual things done that benefit people - tick, personality that isn't tarnished by y'know, stuff. No need to be flash or populist, just decent - the contrast with Johnson is what's needed for Labour. Sturgeon too - Vaccine boost - tick..etc. plus she has Brexit bounce (she was vehemently against, as was Scotland generally). The tories in England doing well because vaccine bounce, Brexit bounce (in the pro leave shires) in the remain places, they seem to be doing worse.

People shouting and arguing about personalities (I think) miss the point. There isn't a kind of mandatory requirement to be this or that type of personality. Most people don't follow politics at all closely. They need to be offered (not too many) credible reasons to vote for a party via policies that offer hope for them, and they need to have few or no reason to NOT vote for that party.

[blandy]

48 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It's going to go under-covered in the post-election recriminations, but the gradual, glacial shift toward Labour in the south-east and south-west is still happening:

The problem for Labour is this process is running about 10-15 years behind the 'retired northern and Midlands homeowners become comfortable voting for the Tories' trend.

When I lived there, the South West was pretty much a LD stronghold. It's gone Tory, and now is maybe reverting left a bit, but the LDs are kind of not so much there any more so Labour picks up some of that former LD vote, but the Tories have also picked up a lot from Brexity people.

But in essence I still think it's Brexit effect - places that wanted Brexit and got it thank the tories by voting for them. Places that didn't want Brexit very much hold the tories to blame and so don't vote for them, leaving space for others to win.

[HanoiVillan]

9 minutes ago, blandy said:

When I lived there, the South West was pretty much a LD stronghold. It's gone Tory, and now is maybe reverting left a bit, but the LDs are kind of not so much there any more so Labour picks up some of that former LD vote, but the Tories have also picked up a lot from Brexity people.

But in essence I still think it's Brexit effect - places that wanted Brexit and got it thank the tories by voting for them. Places that didn't want Brexit very much hold the tories to blame and so don't vote for them, leaving space for others to win.

In FPTP terms, most of the South West is still very much Tory-Lib Dem battles or Tory safe seats. But the effect I'm describing is really an increase from a very low base; there's a gradual but real increase in Labour votes in parts of the region. This probably has something to do with areas getting higher proportions of residents with further education qualifications more than anything (I don't think Labour are benefitting from anything to do with Brexit anywhere really).

The effect is more visible in the South East, where the higher populations of people with higher qualifications is being driven in greater volume by London outflow, and because it's a larger region with a wider variety of types of area.

This was visible in the (bad-looking, but I think useful) chart I made last year looking at the 2015 and 2019 elections and where Labour had won and lost ground (in votes, rather than seats):

from this post: https://www.villatalk.com/topic/13280-the-chairman-mao-resembling-queen-hating-threat-to-britain-labour-party-thread/?do=findComment&comment=2885069

It's interesting that - ignoring all the drama, who hates who, is it left is it right, whatever else - that Labour have tended to have better results this time in those regions that they made mild gains in vote share from 2015-2019 as well (ie, some more promising results in the South East, Wales, the North West and London, bad results in the West Midlands, the North East and Scotland).

Underneath the day-to-day politics stuff, demographics shifts, and that's usually the best predictor of what will happen in the long run.

[HanoiVillan]

To be fair, you can see what the sudden outbreak of Burnham-mania is about. You can't argue with results like this:

Surely hard to imagine getting a better realistic vote than 70%, in a multi-candidate election across an entire city region.

[markavfc40]

Fair play to Burnham I know he is not for everybody but I love his passion and that is an unbelievable result getting almost 70% of the vote and 113k more votes than he did last time.

[Jareth]

Timing is everything - perhaps it'll be third time lucky for Burnham as Labour leader. Previously saw him as a bit of a bland option, but he has had very public battles with the party machinery and is not afraid to say the wrong thing. Main problem with him is the natural guy liner, never trust a bloke with guy liner. 

[dAVe80]

Joy Allen won Durham PCVC for Labour after going to second preference, so at least one person I votes for on Thursday won! Yay! 

On the flip to that Ben Houchen absolutely trounced Jessie Joe Jacobs in the Tees Valley Mayor election. If you get chance to see her speech, I thought it was excellent. Really dignified in defeat. Feel really sorry for her as the party dropped her like a stone when Paul Williams was installed as Hartlepool, and gave her no help. 

[dAVe80]

[ml1dch]

Others will be far better placed than me to judge, but this doesn’t strike me as a decision that will suddenly get everyone rallying round the leadership. 

 

 

[markavfc40]

Dodds is getting the push too apparently with Nandy being demoted or sacked. Seems as though Starmer is scapegoating for his own failings.

[HanoiVillan]

Yeah, dodds was a certainty to go. Weird about nandy, can't really see the point tbh

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Weird about nandy, can't really see the point tbh

I can't see the point of Nandy as a human being either

[HanoiVillan]

Harsh but fair. 

[bickster]

I hope she got sacked just for posting this

 

[dAVe80]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

I hope she got sacked just for posting this

 

I've not checked, but apparently that's been removed from his twitter account already. Man like Keith Stalin.

It's hard to feel too sorry for her. She's absolutely made her own bed, but in what universe is sacking the working class norther woman "taking responsibility"?