I mean the Russia drive is a part of it but the wholesale market was triple or quadruple what it used to be without this recent influence. The price cap is in a lag to the wholesale market. I think many hoped that this would be a price spike across winter and then it would return to normal. But the 2023, 2024 and 2025 futures are now digging in at double or triple historical norms. The drive isnt Russia, its mainly carbon prices.
So ye, if you're bill was £1500 historically it should be £4000-£5000 next year.