The Randy Lerner thread

[villabromsgrove]

If Randy sold Villa, what are the chances of attracting a mega rich owner? Somewhere between no chance and very unlikely imo. AVFC are an unfashionable club in a nationally unloved city, and will never be a hugely marketable project for a super rich investor. 

 

The type of owner that we would be likely to attract could well find AVFC an unsustainable money pit, and then the future could be very dodgy for us.

 

Realistically Randy may well be the best owner that Villa can get. 

[bannedfromHandV]

Are we still talking about RL leaving.

 

Boring hell folks

[BOF]

I really don't get it when I see Villa fans criticising Ashley Young from his time here. Yes, he hasn't been great for Man Utd and he's a proven diver.

 

When he was with us though I thought he was excellent as he was playing every week and stayed fit the majority of the time. I don't remember us moaning too much about his diving when it was for us either.

 

One of the most exciting players I've seen in the 15 years I've been going down the Villa.

He was superb for us but I do remember plenty of us not liking his diving while he was here.

[Rob182]

Same here BOF. Also, I stick by my previous post, that he wasn't great in his last season with us. Overhit crosses, running into players, diving.

[Dodgyknees]

If Randy sold Villa, what are the chances of attracting a mega rich owner? Somewhere between no chance and very unlikely imo. AVFC are an unfashionable club in a nationally unloved city, and will never be a hugely marketable project for a super rich investor.

The type of owner that we would be likely to attract could well find AVFC an unsustainable money pit, and then the future could be very dodgy for us.

Realistically Randy may well be the best owner that Villa can get.

Brilliant.

Bet Man City thought the same.

And if we can't attract somebody better, maybe the current chairman shouldn't have driven our club into the ground with debt, causing three relegation battles and our better players wanting to leave.

Yeah, the chairman who is the best we can get.

[LondonLax]

If Randy sold Villa, what are the chances of attracting a mega rich owner? Somewhere between no chance and very unlikely imo. AVFC are an unfashionable club in a nationally unloved city, and will never be a hugely marketable project for a super rich investor.

The type of owner that we would be likely to attract could well find AVFC an unsustainable money pit, and then the future could be very dodgy for us.

Realistically Randy may well be the best owner that Villa can get.

Brilliant.

Bet Man City thought the same.

And if we can't attract somebody better, maybe the current chairman shouldn't have driven our club into the ground with debt, causing three relegation battles and our better players wanting to leave.

Yeah, the chairman who is the best we can get.

It's a total lottery though isn't it. Man City had that dodgy Thai guy before striking oil. There are plenty of examples of new owners taking over a club and being a total shambles.

I recon there would be far more dodgy characters out there looking for an opportunity to make money out of the club than there are groups looking to shower a club in free money.

[Rob182]

Yeah what was it, £18m for Young with only one year left on his contract. Great business, that's why I would trust us to get it right when the bids start coming in for Benteke. There is little evidence to suggest that Lambert wouldn't be given all the money (if he wants it, of course).

Little evidence other than selling two wingers and bringing in one as a replacement. Or little as in 'as soon as the wage bill is down we will spend on wages, Randy doesn't mind the fee, just wages' which explains the 10m net spend this August.

Yeah.

The evidence for me, is that Lambert is here, sticking by us and, seemingly, by Lerner's plans.

If it's Lerner's plan for us to buy cheap, sell for a large profit and NOT re-invest in the squad - WHY would Lambert go along with it?

It's obvious to me, that when we sell players for more money(players that Lambert has brought in himself for little money), that Lambert will be given a decent chunk to re-invest in replacements.

It's this model that will hopefully allow us to move to the next level, and the next, without breaking the bank/ going bust.

[Morpheus]

Morpheus - the Dortmund model won't work if you assume that the owner won't give the club all the money from selling their best player, but it's hardly surprising you'll have a bad opinion of someone if you assume the worst of them all the time. Essentially you're criticising the management for doing something they've not yet done and may very well not do. You're probably right that Benteke is a cut above what we'll usually find, but Tottenham have shown a good example of how you can build a squad with the money from a single player. 

 

It's also not really fair to say Benteke doesn't count as a success because it'd be hard to repeat the feat - the fact is, we bought Benteke and he's awesome. Maybe it was luck or maybe it was good judgement, but it's impossible to know and either way it has worked out for us.

All fair points PV.

 

However its very hard to assume that the chairman will give all the proceeds of the sale of Benteke to Lambert based on the present financial cutbacks and Lambert not being backed on certain players. (HH aluded to this in one of his recent posts). You might also factor in the possibility that Lerner may be preparing the club for a sale in a few years time?

 

Spuds is a fair example of the right way to proceed but will we get 80 plus million for Benteke or 30m (Berbatov) for any of our other players? Thats extremely doubful and in an inflated market for quality players would the chairman sanction the type of wages that would attract the type of player that Spurs have signed?

 

Concerning Benteke yes it very well might be possible to repeat his success with purchasing another player but even if we do you again have to look at the present financial constraints within the club and whether a chairman who has previously got his fingers badly burned will ever have the confidence again to release the type of funding needed to repeat the MON era of top six finishes?  

Edited September 30, 2013 by Morpheus

[villabromsgrove]

 

Morpheus - the Dortmund model won't work if you assume that the owner won't give the club all the money from selling their best player, but it's hardly surprising you'll have a bad opinion of someone if you assume the worst of them all the time. Essentially you're criticising the management for doing something they've not yet done and may very well not do. You're probably right that Benteke is a cut above what we'll usually find, but Tottenham have shown a good example of how you can build a squad with the money from a single player. 

 

It's also not really fair to say Benteke doesn't count as a success because it'd be hard to repeat the feat - the fact is, we bought Benteke and he's awesome. Maybe it was luck or maybe it was good judgement, but it's impossible to know and either way it has worked out for us.

All fair points PV.

 

However its very hard to assume that the chairman will give all the proceeds of the sale of Benteke to Lambert based on the present financial cutbacks and Lambert not being backed on certain players. (HH aluded to this in one of his recent posts). You might also factor in the possibility that Lerner may be preparing the club for a sale in a few years time?

 

Spuds is a fair example of the right way to proceed but will we get 80 plus million for Benteke or 30m (Berbatov) for any of our other players? Thats extremely doubful and in an inflated market for quality players would the chairman sanction the type of wages that would attract the type of player that Spurs have signed?

 

Concerning Benteke yes it very well might be possible to repeat his success with purchasing another player but even if we do you again have to look at the present financial constraints within the club and whether a chairman who has previously got his fingers badly burned will ever have the confidence again to release the type of funding needed to repeat the MON era of top six finishes?  

 

Excellent post in reply to another good post. Spurs have decided that their recent windfalls from Bale and Modric have created an opportunity to go for the title. They have to succeed in order to sustain their hugely increased wage bill. Good luck to them! However, their London location has obviously enabled them to attract the calibre of player that they are now paying high wages to.

 

I agree with you Morpheus when you question Randy's willingness to go down the "high wage" route again. Chadli, Capoue and Chiriches may well have been obtainable targets for Villa, but Soldado, Lamela, Paulinho and Eriksen would not have come to Villa even for big money and high wages. Imo that makes what Spurs are currently doing an interesting but implausible model for AVFC, especially as you've rightly pointed out that Randy has already had his fingers badly burnt. 

[Big_John_10]

I think we need to copy the model spurs have in place but obviously limit it slightly as we can't compete with the wages.

Maybe those of us complaining will be proved totally wrong this summer when Benteke goes and lambert is given a large amount of money. Hopefully that is the case and that is why he took the job. I'm just not convinced yet.

[Kwan]

That's what sucks. Either way, we don't know.

 

I just think that PL really wouldn't take this job just to fill up his CV if he wasn't promised more funding if they could produce good value and move up the table again. Being a stop gap just doesn't seem like something he would do.

[Dodgyknees]

I think we need to copy the model spurs have in place but obviously limit it slightly as we can't compete with the wages.

Maybe those of us complaining will be proved totally wrong this summer when Benteke goes and lambert is given a large amount of money. Hopefully that is the case and that is why he took the job. I'm just not convinced yet.

 

I do not believe Lambert would get all of - or nearly all of the money.

 

The only problem I would have if he does get (for example) 40m from the sale of Benteke, is then deciding what cup to bet on us to win.

[Morpheus]

Say if someone came in with a bid of 30m for Benteke in January. Now i wouldn't want to see him go as he is a fabulous player whom some cretin likened to Balaban  but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Lerner sanctioned the sale and gave Lambert half of the proceeds to get someone else in on the basis of well you got Benteke for 5m-7m so do it again and use the rest for an AM.

 

I hope i'm very wrong and either in January or in the summer whatever we get for him will be given to the manager to re-invest.

 

I'm just not at all confident at the moment that will happen and if it doesn't would Lambert start to question the ambition of the club like several before him?    

[kurtsimonw]

Because Lerner is well known for selling our stars in January.

[MikeMcKenna]

Obviously we can only surmise what RL's long term plans are but it is a fair assumption given our spending under PL, that he has decided we must trade within our means. I believe he wants out but what would he have to sell for to avoid any losses?

With the extra SKY funding AVFC must now worth a lot, lot more than the £64 million he paid. If the club still owes him £100 million plus lots of interest, would any of the financially astute members like to hazard a guess as to what the club is now worth and what the club's value would need to be if RL wanted to sell and avoid losses? Would £200 million be about right? And are we worth that much?

Edited September 30, 2013 by MikeMcKenna

[Morpheus]

Because Lerner is well known for selling our stars in January.

30m offer for Benteke in January and due to previous non sales during that period you don't think Lerner would consider it?

[Kwan]

I don't think Benteke will leave in January for any price.

[villan_007]

Because Lerner is well known for selling our stars in January.

30m offer for Benteke in January and due to previous non sales during that period you don't think Lerner would consider it?

No chance what so ever he'll leave in Jan, plus he'll be advised by the Belgium powers that be to stay and keep playing

[thetrees]

I think we need to copy the model spurs have in place but obviously limit it slightly as we can't compete with the wages.

Interesting.

When Spurs were languishing near the foot of the table supporters that I know were bemoaning the lack of investment, the fact that they couldn't compete with the Villa on wages, and that they had an absentee billionaire owner.

Time goes very quick in football.

[thetrees]

Say if someone came in with a bid of 30m for Benteke in January. Now i wouldn't want to see him go as he is a fabulous player whom some cretin likened to Balaban  but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Lerner sanctioned the sale and gave Lambert half of the proceeds to get someone else in on the basis of well you got Benteke for 5m-7m so do it again and use the rest for an AM.

 

I believe that PL was handed £7m for Benteke's replacement on the last transfer deadline day.

I think that PL likes to work ahead, and clearly the owner was prepared to back him in this instance.