The Randy Lerner thread

[Panto_Villan]

@BJ - glad you made the second post there! To answer your first post, here's a quick summary:

• Our league positions before Lerner took over were 8th, 16th, 6th, 10th, 16th, 11th. After he took over it was 6th, 6th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 15th. Not much difference, and looks like a couple of relegation battles before he took over too.
• The figures I posted a couple of days ago show our revenue position relative to the rest of the PL clubs has at best stayed the same since Lerner took over, and likely improved at least one place.
• All the debt is to Lerner. As I said in my previous post, he's already put that money in and if he can't get it out again then he's the one that takes the loss.
• The lack of investment at the time he took over was sufficiently bad that Bodymoor couldn't be redeveloped and had repeatedly been pushed back.
• Maybe he got the club cheap-ish, but the price the owner pays isn't really relevant as it doesn't actually affect AVFC in any way (just the current and previous owners).

So I think it's a bit harsh to say Lerner was worse than what we had before, even if he didn't get us to the promised land.

 

@dodgyknees - fair play, sir.

[CrackpotForeigner]

 

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

 

 

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

[suttonpaul]

Ill be boring and say it again no chairman should be expected to put tens or hundreds of millions into a club knowing he wont get it back and you get what you pay for. If Villa is such a massive club why don't we sell out with our prices near the lowest in the league? Why don't we have high priced commercial sponsorship deals?

 

Join the real world.

[villabromsgrove]

Leaving aside the question of whether Randy is a good, indifferent or bad owner, I would like to hear from him as to why he feels unwilling or unable to attend a match at Villa Park. There must be a reason for his absence and given the time that has elapsed since he was a regular attender it can't just be explained away by family pressures. The longer he stays away the more precarious the chairman/fan's relationship is going to get .... and that aint good!

[Dodgyknees]

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

[CrackpotForeigner]

 

 

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

 

 

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

 

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

[Panto_Villan]

Trent - Yup, you're right about the £17.7m loss though, I was indeed using figures a year out of date. Given that the television revenues are ~£20m extra a year now, that would put the club in a small profit. That said, I did mention the TV deal and the reducing wage bill in exactly the quote where you suggested I did not.

 

However, you're missing the point of my post by debating the details. The crux of the discussion isn't the likelihood of Lerner selling the club for a profit, as I said in my third sentence that I'd just read Fulham may well have gone for £200m and thus it was possible Lerner could have recouped his investment even if the club was in the loss-making state I thought it would be in

 

The point is that running the club to make a small profit each year and using that to pay down the loans isn't a sensible strategy from his point of view. All it needs is one bad season and for the club to get relegated, and the value of AVFC is hugely reduced - and the likelihood of relegation is increased if you're running the club on a shoestring. It's better to sell it immediately, while it is still a PL club and is enjoying a rare moment of stability. The logic works irrespective of whether the club is making a loss or not, because the value of the club increases with the money it is making.

 

So if the club is doing well and could pay down the debt quickly, it'd sell for a lot of money. If it's not making much cash, you won't get much money for selling the club but equally you're not making much progress in paying down the debt - so why bother keeping the club? In either situation it's a case of money now vs possible money in the future, and really he'd be mad to risk the catastrophic financial loss he'd end up with if the club got relegated.

 

Also, whenever Randy sells the club, if he's not been able to get his money out then he will lose that money. But if he sells the club for a profit, then that £125m of debt is money he would have made as profit had he not racked the debt up. Either way, he's the one footing the bill. It's highly unlikely to be left behind when he leaves the club, imo.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Panto_Villan

[P3te]

This idea of asset stripping the club has never made all that much sense to me to prepare for a sale - surely he'd get more money for a successful club than one that's been stripped of its worth. Doesn't he stand to make more from a stable, self-sufficient and, most importantly, potentially successful club, than one with no hope of anything? That's the thing I've never understood when people say he's just looking to scrape survival... it's in his interests to make the team as strong as possible, as cheaply as possible, rather than just the latter - and I think that's why Lambert is here

[CrackpotForeigner]

I'd like to know how RL managed to persuade Paul Lambert, one of the most promising managers of the current generation, to work for him.

 

It's nice to think he did so by saying that he's planning to sell to Prince Moneybags Al Cashpile.

[Dodgyknees]

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

He's been pruning and pruning for a few years, all because of his own a decisions which have caused the club to drop like a stone, three relegation battles, the loss of key players, a promise that we will spend money (Randy doesn't mind the fee) but wages are the problem, yet we spent net 10m in the window and Lambert - a cracking manager - had to choose between backup to Benteke and an attacking or holding mid because the money isn't there.

We are not an investment fund.

We are a football club.

You might enjoying guessing where the next cut back comes.

I enjoy winning games and wondering if we can get to Wembley or finish as high as possible and not just hope we might survive.

The key is in the name. AVFC. one of the greatest clubs of all time, one of the names that should be at the top fighting it out, as a football club should be.

The chairman has given up, the sooner he goes the better, so we can finally look to that pitch again and see us as a Football club, where everybody top to bottom wants the best players and where a manager doesn't have to pick between two players but can get those he wants.

Your second point is good. As for calling me a real worrier, you're one of Lerner's little sheep, but that is fine, we can't all see it the same.

If I was that much of a worrier I wouldn't have 100% faith in our manager, would I?

[Dodgyknees]

I'd like to know how RL managed to persuade Paul Lambert, one of the most promising managers of the current generation, to work for him.

It's nice to think he did so by saying that he's planning to sell to Prince Moneybags Al Cashpile.

Let's hope he is...

[Isa]

I'd like to know how RL managed to persuade Paul Lambert, one of the most promising managers of the current generation, to work for him.

 

Yeah because clubs were just queuing around the block to hire him weren't they?

[Rovers13]

Just to go back a couple pages, Lerner and the venkys aren't comparable at all. I try to respect everyone's opinions and all, but c'mon, that's a laughable comment.

Trust me, the Venkys are far worse than you seem to think. They're totally apathetic, have been failures in everything at the club, and basically just bought it to get their name out there and known.

The only way Lerner could be comparable to the Venkys is if O'Neill got sacked after a first game loss in the first season, Lerner appointed a delusional dickhead assistant to O'Neill who then alienated the support and played for sympathy while doing a disastrous job.

Lerner may not be perfect, but his flaws have been more due to just making bad choices on who to trust with regards to signings (MON) and one dumb appointment. He's not bad intentioned, or at least wasn't in the past. And even if you think he was a little bit, never compare him to the Venkys

[suttonpaul]

 

 

 

 

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

He's been pruning and pruning for a few years, all because of his own a decisions which have caused the club to drop like a stone, three relegation battles, the loss of key players, a promise that we will spend money (Randy doesn't mind the fee) but wages are the problem, yet we spent net 10m in the window and Lambert - a cracking manager - had to choose between backup to Benteke and an attacking or holding mid because the money isn't there.

We are not an investment fund.

We are a football club.

You might enjoying guessing where the next cut back comes.

I enjoy winning games and wondering if we can get to Wembley or finish as high as possible and not just hope we might survive.

The key is in the name. AVFC. one of the greatest clubs of all time, one of the names that should be at the top fighting it out, as a football club should be.

The chairman has given up, the sooner he goes the better, so we can finally look to that pitch again and see us as a Football club, where everybody top to bottom wants the best players and where a manager doesn't have to pick between two players but can get those he wants.

Your second point is good. As for calling me a real worrier, you're one of Lerner's little sheep, but that is fine, we can't all see it the same.

If I was that much of a worrier I wouldn't have 100% faith in our manager, would I?

 

 One of the greatest clubs nearly a century ago.

 

If someone super rich wanted to buy us we would be sold.

[neil3241]

 

 

 

 

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

He's been pruning and pruning for a few years, all because of his own a decisions which have caused the club to drop like a stone, three relegation battles, the loss of key players, a promise that we will spend money (Randy doesn't mind the fee) but wages are the problem, yet we spent net 10m in the window and Lambert - a cracking manager - had to choose between backup to Benteke and an attacking or holding mid because the money isn't there.

We are not an investment fund.

We are a football club.

You might enjoying guessing where the next cut back comes.

I enjoy winning games and wondering if we can get to Wembley or finish as high as possible and not just hope we might survive.

The key is in the name. AVFC. one of the greatest clubs of all time, one of the names that should be at the top fighting it out, as a football club should be.

The chairman has given up, the sooner he goes the better, so we can finally look to that pitch again and see us as a Football club, where everybody top to bottom wants the best players and where a manager doesn't have to pick between two players but can get those he wants.

Your second point is good. As for calling me a real worrier, you're one of Lerner's little sheep, but that is fine, we can't all see it the same.

If I was that much of a worrier I wouldn't have 100% faith in our manager, would I?

 

 

Erm a wild stab in the dark here. I bet your wasn't this concerned and vocal on this thread when the money was being pumped and spent by MON.

 

In fact you was most likely lapping it up like the rest of the fan base.

Edited October 4, 2013 by neil3241

[Big_John_10]

@BJ - glad you made the second post there! To answer your first post, here's a quick summary:

• Our league positions before Lerner took over were 8th, 16th, 6th, 10th, 16th, 11th. After he took over it was 6th, 6th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 15th. Not much difference, and looks like a couple of relegation battles before he took over too.
• The figures I posted a couple of days ago show our revenue position relative to the rest of the PL clubs has at best stayed the same since Lerner took over, and likely improved at least one place.
• All the debt is to Lerner. As I said in my previous post, he's already put that money in and if he can't get it out again then he's the one that takes the loss.
• The lack of investment at the time he took over was sufficiently bad that Bodymoor couldn't be redeveloped and had repeatedly been pushed back.
• Maybe he got the club cheap-ish, but the price the owner pays isn't really relevant as it doesn't actually affect AVFC in any way (just the current and previous owners).

So I think it's a bit harsh to say Lerner was worse than what we had before, even if he didn't get us to the promised land.

@dodgyknees - fair play, sir.

So basically he's no better than the guy he bought the club from, but the only difference is he wasted a shit load of money and put the club in debt and now we've suffered as a billionnaire try's to make sure he doesn't lose money.

In terms of the revenue league table we're probably where we were under Doug at his worst, that's how good an owner he is.

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

He's been pruning and pruning for a few years, all because of his own a decisions which have caused the club to drop like a stone, three relegation battles, the loss of key players, a promise that we will spend money (Randy doesn't mind the fee) but wages are the problem, yet we spent net 10m in the window and Lambert - a cracking manager - had to choose between backup to Benteke and an attacking or holding mid because the money isn't there.

We are not an investment fund.

We are a football club.

You might enjoying guessing where the next cut back comes.

I enjoy winning games and wondering if we can get to Wembley or finish as high as possible and not just hope we might survive.

The key is in the name. AVFC. one of the greatest clubs of all time, one of the names that should be at the top fighting it out, as a football club should be.

The chairman has given up, the sooner he goes the better, so we can finally look to that pitch again and see us as a Football club, where everybody top to bottom wants the best players and where a manager doesn't have to pick between two players but can get those he wants.

Your second point is good. As for calling me a real worrier, you're one of Lerner's little sheep, but that is fine, we can't all see it the same.

If I was that much of a worrier I wouldn't have 100% faith in our manager, would I?

Erm a wild stab in the dark here. I bet your wasn't this concerned and vocal on this thread when the money was being pumped and spent by MON.

In fact you was most likely lapping it up like the rest of the fan base.

This is such a stupid argument.

[Villarocker]

Ill be boring and say it again no chairman should be expected to put tens or hundreds of millions into a club knowing he wont get it back and you get what you pay for. If Villa is such a massive club why don't we sell out with our prices near the lowest in the league? Why don't we have high priced commercial sponsorship deals?

 

Join the real world.

If Man Utd won nothing for the next 30 years, and only 50,000 turned up week in week out, do you think their fanbase would "join the real world" and accept they are not a big club any more?

[Panto_Villan]

BJ - so yes, he's not improved us from the position that we were in when he took over except for that part where he massively did and we nearly qualified for the Champions League.

 

The money he wasted was his own. That debt is money he'll either lose when he sells the club (if he sells for a loss), or it will reduce the profit he'll make when he sells the club (if he sells for a profit). No owner is going to agree to buy the club with Randy's loans still attached.

 

If Trent is right about him stringing the club along to slowly pay down the debt then it becomes more a problem, but I just can't see that happening as it's an incredibly high-risk strategy for Lerner due to the annual risk of relegation and losing basically everything. If he's getting the club ready to sell then it makes sense to sell sooner rather than later.

[SikhInTrinity]

In reference to him not appearing at the Spurs game, forget Randy being at games where the hell were the fans.

[Dodgyknees]

@BJ - glad you made the second post there! To answer your first post, here's a quick summary:

• Our league positions before Lerner took over were 8th, 16th, 6th, 10th, 16th, 11th. After he took over it was 6th, 6th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 15th. Not much difference, and looks like a couple of relegation battles before he took over too.
• The figures I posted a couple of days ago show our revenue position relative to the rest of the PL clubs has at best stayed the same since Lerner took over, and likely improved at least one place.
• All the debt is to Lerner. As I said in my previous post, he's already put that money in and if he can't get it out again then he's the one that takes the loss.
• The lack of investment at the time he took over was sufficiently bad that Bodymoor couldn't be redeveloped and had repeatedly been pushed back.
• Maybe he got the club cheap-ish, but the price the owner pays isn't really relevant as it doesn't actually affect AVFC in any way (just the current and previous owners).

So I think it's a bit harsh to say Lerner was worse than what we had before, even if he didn't get us to the promised land.

@dodgyknees - fair play, sir.

So basically he's no better than the guy he bought the club from, but the only difference is he wasted a shit load of money and put the club in debt and now we've suffered as a billionnaire try's to make sure he doesn't lose money.

In terms of the revenue league table we're probably where we were under Doug at his worst, that's how good an owner he is.

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

Sorry, but you don't seem to understand. Randy doesn't have debt. The club owe him money, but there will be no financial problems like Leeds unless Randy decides to call in the debt, which would be a fairly strange thing to do since he owns 100% of the club.

With no premier money he would sell assets and raise his money back, selling is off for scrap to the highest bidder. He foes not care anymore and relegation would force his hand to get what he can.

You're assuming quite a lot. If he wanted to sell the club for what it's worth the last thing he'd want to do would be to plunge it into a debt crisis while doing so. You're a real worrier, aren't you

Fwiw I hope he sells if he can find someone with deeper pockets than he has, but while he's lending money to the club I don't think we can complain too much.

He's been pruning and pruning for a few years, all because of his own a decisions which have caused the club to drop like a stone, three relegation battles, the loss of key players, a promise that we will spend money (Randy doesn't mind the fee) but wages are the problem, yet we spent net 10m in the window and Lambert - a cracking manager - had to choose between backup to Benteke and an attacking or holding mid because the money isn't there.

We are not an investment fund.

We are a football club.

You might enjoying guessing where the next cut back comes.

I enjoy winning games and wondering if we can get to Wembley or finish as high as possible and not just hope we might survive.

The key is in the name. AVFC. one of the greatest clubs of all time, one of the names that should be at the top fighting it out, as a football club should be.

The chairman has given up, the sooner he goes the better, so we can finally look to that pitch again and see us as a Football club, where everybody top to bottom wants the best players and where a manager doesn't have to pick between two players but can get those he wants.

Your second point is good. As for calling me a real worrier, you're one of Lerner's little sheep, but that is fine, we can't all see it the same.

If I was that much of a worrier I wouldn't have 100% faith in our manager, would I?

Erm a wild stab in the dark here. I bet your wasn't this concerned and vocal on this thread when the money was being pumped and spent by MON.

In fact you was most likely lapping it up like the rest of the fan base.

This is such a stupid argument.

Not as much as yours and his relentless moaning, it's **** boring.

His argument of miss mangement through over spending at the start carries much less weight if not voiced at the time.

yes, we all knew Randy's plan was 'throw money and hope' didn't we?

He came in screaming about a five year plan, didn't he?

So we gave him a chance.

The plan? Throw loads of money, close your eyes and hope it works.