The Randy Lerner thread

[RunRickyRun]

You want Randy to spend more money but then say we are hamstrung by the debt which was the result of Randy spending money.

 

You're not making a lot of sense.

[Panto_Villan]

 

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

His debt has suffocated the club and could have cost us our place in the premiership and has left us with a great deal of problems, meaning we cannot compete with clubs who are much much smaller.

What Venky's have done is bad, this doesn't excuse Randy for being one of the worst owners in the country.

Hyperbole, isn't that EXACTLY what cane out of the Randy PR campaign for the first 4 years?

 

 

 

 

No, you're just making ludicrous statements to justify what appears to be utterly blind hatred. Various other posters here dislike Randy Lerner and that's fine, as it generally appears to come from different interpretations of the same facts everyone else sees. I get a bit frustrated with some people's insistence on being negative (BJ, Morpheus), but at least I can see where they are coming from even if I don't agree with them. There wouldn't be any point having a message board if everyone had identical opinions.

 

Your posts seem to have no basis in reality whatsoever. I could post a long and detailed argument on why Lerner buying a club in a bad financial situation and investing money to deliver 6th place three years in a row, followed by several bad seasons and questionable managerial appointments is significantly better than taking over a club, firing the existing manager mid-season and then going through a total of four managers in a year that nearly causes back-to-back relegations for a club that was on relatively stable footing before the new owners arrive...but you wouldn't be interested in things like facts, would you? The fact you're even comparing Lerner to Venky's suggests you've completely lost the plot.

 

I said earlier in this thread that Lerner is a mediocre owner, but I feel compelled to defend him because some of the criticism leveled at him is just so completely insane. At present you are serving as exhibit A. I seriously cannot believe you equate his tenure to that of Venkys. I'd be very surprised if even his other regular critics on this board would do the same, because it's so utterly outlandish.

 

FYI - All of the club's debt is in the form of either interest-free or low-interest loans from Lerner's other companies. It isn't suffocating the club in any way. Bank loans would suffocate the club because they charge interest at commercial rates, but Lerner wisely never took them out. But I guess that's just another fact for you to conveniently overlook?

[Dodgyknees]

You want Randy to spend more money but then say we are hamstrung by the debt which was the result of Randy spending money.

You're not making a lot of sense.

I'm replying to people who say we should be careful as there are worse than Randy.

The debt is Randy's.

[Dodgyknees]

If we had gone down under McLeish, RANDY's debt would have led to financial problems like Leeds.

His debt has suffocated the club and could have cost us our place in the premiership and has left us with a great deal of problems, meaning we cannot compete with clubs who are much much smaller.

What Venky's have done is bad, this doesn't excuse Randy for being one of the worst owners in the country.

Hyperbole, isn't that EXACTLY what cane out of the Randy PR campaign for the first 4 years?

No, you're just making ludicrous statements to justify what appears to be utterly blind hatred. Various other posters here dislike Randy Lerner and that's fine, as it generally appears to come from different interpretations of the same facts everyone else sees. I get a bit frustrated with some people's insistence on being negative (BJ, Morpheus), but at least I can see where they are coming from even if I don't agree with them. There wouldn't be any point having a message board if everyone had identical opinions.

Your posts seem to have no basis in reality whatsoever. I could post a long and detailed argument on why Lerner buying a club in a bad financial situation and investing money to deliver 6th place three years in a row, followed by several bad seasons and questionable managerial appointments is significantly better than taking over a club, firing the existing manager mid-season and then going through a total of four managers in a year that nearly causes back-to-back relegations for a club that was on relatively stable footing before the new owners arrive...but you wouldn't be interested in things like facts, would you? The fact you're even comparing Lerner to Venky's suggests you've completely lost the plot.

I said earlier in this thread that Lerner is a mediocre owner, but I feel compelled to defend him because some of the criticism leveled at him is just so completely insane. At present you are serving as exhibit A. I seriously cannot believe you equate his tenure to that of Venkys. I'd be very surprised if even his other regular critics on this board would do the same, because it's so utterly outlandish.

FYI - All of the club's debt is in the form of either interest-free or low-interest loans from Lerner's other companies. It isn't suffocating the club in any way. Bank loans would suffocate the club because they charge interest at commercial rates, but Lerner wisely never took them out. But I guess that's just another fact for you to conveniently overlook?

People continue to say we could do worse. The point I am making is that we already have somebody who.. (Read the past 20 pages, I'm not going over it again, I have stated my case and strangely others have agreed) so go read my previous to save me being bored of repeating it.

My post has no basis in reality. Seriously poor that, the things I have posted are reality. Debt, lack of spending due to him and his decisions and debt, near relegation because of his decisions and debt, relying on youth because of his decisions and debt, losing our best players, leading to poor form, leading to strange management decisions, near relegation, debt and the circle continues.

Edited October 3, 2013 by dodgyknees

[RunRickyRun]

It's not. It's AVFC's debt.

 

Every penny an owner puts into a business has to be shown on the books as a debt to be repaid by the company to the owner (in our case it's in the form of loan notes and equity).

 

Basic finance.

[TrentVilla]

To try and argue the debt is Lerner's and not Villa's is as daft as it is incorrect.

[Dodgyknees]

It's not. It's AVFC's debt.

Every penny an owner puts into a business has to be shown on the books as a debt to be repaid by the company to the owner (in our case it's in the form of loan notes and equity).

Basic finance.

Who suffers if he drops us now? We do. His debt is balanced on this club, relegation would have had us up the shitter, he has put a massive boulder on the clubs shoulders.

[Panto_Villan]

I'm going to bow out of this thread for a bit, I think, as it's just winding me up.

 

Dodgyknees, please don't take too much offence at my post above because it was written in a moment of anger. However, I think you should reflect for a moment on the state the club was on when Randy bought it and the fact that we have enjoyed success under him as well as the bad times. You seem to have turned him into a cartoon villain in your head, and in reality human beings and the legacies they leave are not as one-dimensional or binary as you seem to think they are.

[RunRickyRun]

Not really. Debt becomes unmanageable when you cannot service it.

 

Randy has already written of interest owed to him and I'd imagine he would do the same if we were relegated.

 

It would not make a lot of sense for him to asset strip his own company (in the form of mass player sales a la Portsmouth or Leeds) in order to pay himself the interest owed on a loan he made to his own business.

[Panto_Villan]

Though in regards to debt, Randy has screwed himself with that more than the club. The debt is money he has put into the club - any owner who buys it from him will want the debt cleared, so it just increases the selling price he'll have to ask for the club in order not to make a loss.

 

But if he doesn't sell the club, it'll keep racking up more debt so it'll just get worse for him. If he decides to liquidate AVFC then he'll get none of the money back at all. So, really, Villa has Randy over a barrel regarding those loans as the club has the money and the problem of working out how he gets the cash back out is up to him (and it'll primarily involve finding someone rich enough to pay them off when they buy the club).

[RunRickyRun]

Also - If you think the debt is a burden on the club, then surely the last thing you would want would be for the owner to increase that debt by spending more money?

[Big_John_10]

The venkeys are a complete joke, however the last two years Lerner wasn't a million miles away from joining them.

He's an awful owner and has done an awful job running this club. God only hopes we don't get a Mcleish like decision when it comes to who he sells us to. I will certainly celebrate the day it happens.

[TrentVilla]

Though in regards to debt, Randy has screwed himself with that more than the club. The debt is money he has put into the club - any owner who buys it from him will want the debt cleared, so it just increases the selling price he'll have to ask for the club in order not to make a loss.

 

 

Or... he could run the club on the cheap for a few years and pay the loans back to himself until the club is debt free and he an try and find a buyer.

 

Imagine that....

The venkeys are a complete joke, however the last two years Lerner wasn't a million miles away from joining them.

He's an awful owner and has done an awful job running this club. God only hopes we don't get a Mcleish like decision when it comes to who he sells us to. I will certainly celebrate the day it happens.

 

He has done a terrible job, no question in my mind about that but he is a long way from the Venkeys.

[Big_John_10]

I'm going to bow out of this thread for a bit, I think, as it's just winding me up.

Dodgyknees, please don't take too much offence at my post above because it was written in a moment of anger. However, I think you should reflect for a moment on the state the club was on when Randy bought it and the fact that we have enjoyed success under him as well as the bad times. You seem to have turned him into a cartoon villain in your head, and in reality human beings and the legacies they leave are not as one-dimensional or binary as you seem to think they are.

The state the club was in? Did we have large debts? A wage bill out of control? 3 consecutive relegation battles?

He also got the club for a ridiculously cheap price.

What was this state?

[Big_John_10]

Though in regards to debt, Randy has screwed himself with that more than the club. The debt is money he has put into the club - any owner who buys it from him will want the debt cleared, so it just increases the selling price he'll have to ask for the club in order not to make a loss.

Or... he could run the club on the cheap for a few years and pay the loans back to himself until the club is debt free and he an try and find a buyer.

Imagine that....

The venkeys are a complete joke, however the last two years Lerner wasn't a million miles away from joining them.

He's an awful owner and has done an awful job running this club. God only hopes we don't get a Mcleish like decision when it comes to who he sells us to. I will certainly celebrate the day it happens.

He has done a terrible job, no question in my mind about that but he is a long way from the Venkeys.

In terms of being close to joining them I meant in terms of being relegated.

[Dodgyknees]

I'm going to bow out of this thread for a bit, I think, as it's just winding me up.

Dodgyknees, please don't take too much offence at my post above because it was written in a moment of anger. However, I think you should reflect for a moment on the state the club was on when Randy bought it and the fact that we have enjoyed success under him as well as the bad times. You seem to have turned him into a cartoon villain in your head, and in reality human beings and the legacies they leave are not as one-dimensional or binary as you seem to think they are.

No need to apologise, we just have differing opinions.

As for success with him, we had three good years - nothing spectacular - but years that would have led to more, if the plan was more than throw money at something with no real idea what happens next.

It wasn't a good plan, many clubs have tried and failed badly.

If he came in and took the plan he has now with a little more spending, we would all be happy as it would be better than under Doug.

But his mistakes financially have crippled us to the point we have had three of the worst years at VP since the mid to late 80s.

Not to mention the fact that when MON left, his plan was to go continental, get somebody in to get us playing as a footballing side. He chose somebody out of the English game for 5 years who has had heart problems and we end up paying millions to let him and his staff go.

Does he continue the continental approach which had seen Makoun, Bent and a new style being put in place?

No he goes for a manager just relegated, known for a style which doesn't work and is quite old fashioned, the opposite.

"Wait and see what he can do when backed"

Well, even if he had been given a chance, Downing and Young (30+ assists and goals the season before) were sold and only one of a similar style brought in. The football was as expected and we were closer to being relegated than for 10 years previous.

It has been one long catalogue of errors. And to cover his errors we are under Conservative style cut backs which is affecting where it matters most.

The pitch.

[Dodgyknees]

Though in regards to debt, Randy has screwed himself with that more than the club. The debt is money he has put into the club - any owner who buys it from him will want the debt cleared, so it just increases the selling price he'll have to ask for the club in order not to make a loss.

Or... he could run the club on the cheap for a few years and pay the loans back to himself until the club is debt free and he an try and find a buyer.

Imagine that....

The venkeys are a complete joke, however the last two years Lerner wasn't a million miles away from joining them.

He's an awful owner and has done an awful job running this club. God only hopes we don't get a Mcleish like decision when it comes to who he sells us to. I will certainly celebrate the day it happens.

He has done a terrible job, no question in my mind about that but he is a long way from the Venkeys.

In terms of being close to joining them I meant in terms of being relegated.

This is what I meant too, although badly worded. I get point across better on laptop tbh.

[Panto_Villan]

I can't help myself. I'm still reading.

 

So at present the club has about £125m in debt, all owed to Lerner. I'm fairly sure it's interest-free as he has waived the interest he is due on it. The club was losing about £50m a year last time I checked, and he bought the club for £65m. Honestly, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lose money when he sells the club - he'd need to sell for £200m+ just to get his money back.

 

Villa isn't worth that much money. I'm pretty sure you could find other clubs in a similar position to us more cheaply, which suggests he might just have to lower the price and take the loss on the chin if he wants to sell. The longer he holds the club, the more money he'll lose.

 

Actually, that said, apparently Fulham went for £150m-£200m so maybe he'll be able to cash out fine given we've got a good stadium and a good fanbase? Who knows. The point is that ultimately it'll be Lerner that carries the can for his financial recklessness if he sells, not the club. So he gave us a free tilt at the CL and he walks away with the loss when it doesn't work out. I think he's been a better owner than people give him credit for.

 

 

@Trent - it's possible he could run the club on the cheap for a while and pay back the loans. However, if he did that over 5 years it'd require the club making a profit of £25m each year. That's a £75m swing from the current financial position, and while I think we won't be making such a huge loss each year now we've trimmed the wage bill and aren't paying ridiculous sums in compensation to managers and are getting TV money, I still can't see the club being profitable yet...let alone taking out £25m a year. So I don't think that's possible.

 

Also, even if he did somehow manage that swing in profit, it would also involve not making any net transfer spend (even with tightened pursestrings we're still spending over £10m each year) and thus we'd be even more vulnerable to relegation than usual. If the club got relegated, Randy would kiss goodbye to a huge amount of revenue and also the value of the club overall would decrease too. So it doesn't make sense for him to do that, even if it were possible - if he wants to sell, he should do so in the next year or two while the club is in a relatively stable position compared to usual as that's when he'll get the safest return on his money.

[Dodgyknees]

Credit to Lerner for the three fun years, the dreams, for sacking McLeish, bringing Lambert to the club. But I hope he goes soon, whilst we are in this league and if he makes a profit I hope he spends it wisely and lives a good and happy life. I don't hate him as a person, I just view Villa as a massive club, with incredible potential and we are so badly undervalued by a chairman who has seen the novelty wear off, which makes me wonder if the tattoo is still there, or is covered up like the name of an ex.

[TrentVilla]

So at present the club has about £125m in debt, all owed to Lerner. I'm fairly sure it's interest-free as he has waived the interest he is due on it. The club was losing about £50m a year last time I checked, and he bought the club for £65m. Honestly, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lose money when he sells the club - he'd need to sell for £200m+ just to get his money back.

 

 

No, it isn't interest free. It is a low level interest but there is interest and he hasn't waived it last year it remains to be seen if he does the same this year or not. 

 

As for us losing £50m a year the last time you checked, seemingly you haven't checked our accounts since 2011/12 because we lost £17.7m last year.

 

He won't lose money when he sells the club because he will I'm sure have repaid his loans and will get more than what he paid for us in the first place.

 

 

Villa isn't worth that much money. I'm pretty sure you could find other clubs in a similar position to us more cheaply, which suggests he might just have to lower the price and take the loss on the chin if he wants to sell. The longer he holds the club, the more money he'll lose.

 

Er... no.

 

He couldn't sell the club now because of the mess he has made of running it, once the loans are repaid he will likely be able to sell it for more than he paid for it. The club will likely turn a profit when the new accounts are released so no, he will not lose more money the longer he owns the club.

 

The point is that ultimately it'll be Lerner that carries the can for his financial recklessness if he sells, not the club. So he gave us a free tilt at the CL and he walks away with the loss when it doesn't work out. I think he's been a better owner than people give him credit for.

 

No, no it won't and no he isn't.

 

@Trent - it's possible he could run the club on the cheap for a while and pay back the loans. However, if he did that over 5 years it'd require the club making a profit of £25m each year. That's a £75m swing from the current financial position, and while I think we won't be making such a huge loss each year now we've trimmed the wage bill and aren't paying ridiculous sums in compensation to managers and are getting TV money, I still can't see the club being profitable yet...let alone taking out £25m a year. So I don't think that's possible.

 

You don't have a handle on the figures as I've already stated, you seem to have missed a years accounts.

 

You also seem to have missed the massive new TV deal and the relatively tiny amount we spent this summer and the ever decreasing wage bill. 

 

You might not think it possible and who knows it might not be but I'm pretty sure it is Lerner's new plan.

 

Also, even if he did somehow manage that swing in profit, it would also involve not making any net transfer spend (even with tightened pursestrings we're still spending over £10m each year) and thus we'd be even more vulnerable to relegation than usual. If the club got relegated, Randy would kiss goodbye to a huge amount of revenue and also the value of the club overall would decrease too. So it doesn't make sense for him to do that, even if it were possible - if he wants to sell, he should do so in the next year or two while the club is in a relatively stable position compared to usual as that's when he'll get the safest return on his money.

 

I fully expect us to turn a profit this year if not certainly next. It won't require us not to make any net transfer spending to achieve it either.

As for the rest of this section, sorry but it makes no sense at all. He can't sell now without making a huge loss.