U.S. Politics

[LondonLax]

This can only end well...

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, Chindie said:

Trump threatens North Korea with 'fire and fury'

His finger being on the button horrifies me.

Daniel Larison:

'Incendiary rhetoric is the last thing that the U.S. needs in its dealings with North Korea. Making a threat like this is irresponsible in several ways. It is intentionally provocative, and that will make it more difficult to reduce tensions. It is needlessly alarming to allies and gives them reason to fear that the U.S. might act recklessly at their expense. It seems to commit the U.S. to taking drastic actions in response to North Korean rhetoric, which puts the U.S. in the absurd position of either backing up the president’s mindless bluster or climbing down publicly. Despite repeatedly criticizing Obama’s “red line” in Syria, Trump has drawn a much bigger, more consequential line and dared North Korea to cross it. Knowing the North Korean leadership’s track record, it is almost certain that they will call what we have to hope is nothing more than Trump’s bluff.'

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/trumps-dangerous-fire-and-fury-rhetoric/

[maqroll]

This is all playing right into Bannon/Trump's hands. They can use this NK crisis to deflect any prosecution against them by Mueller or anyone else. And then there's the actual crisis itself. Hopefully cool heads prevail, but with Trump at the helm, it'll be an absolute shitshow no matter what happens.

[maqroll]

Trump will use his bombastic and reckless "fire and fury" approach to NK as red meat to throw to his base, making any attempt to impeach him a real **** tightrope for the country to walk. Even old people are saying they've never seen the country so divided.

[peterms]

Kim and Trump.  Two oversized arrogant kids in a playground, boasting and threatening.  Two cheeks of the same arse.

I really thought the deep state would have removed Trump before it came to this.

Son's gf goes to S Korea soon, for a year.  Looks like a pretty bad choice.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, peterms said:

Kim and Trump.  Two oversized arrogant kids in a playground, boasting and threatening.  Two cheeks of the same arse.

I really thought the deep state would have removed Trump before it came to this.

Son's gf goes to S Korea soon, for a year.  Looks like a pretty bad choice.

It's a great country to live in and she'll have a good time. 

It's still very unlikely any 'hot' fighting will occur. 

[peterms]

Thanks for the reassurance.  They don't seem too worried - the invincibility of youth?  Wouldn't catch me settling there right now, though.

[villa4europe]

you can imagine the stereotypical american yokel whooping and raising their flag in their garden this morning grabbing their gun, drinking their blue ribbon, getting in their truck absolutely loving this

while the rest of the world shakes their head in a mixture of despair and disbelief 

its pretty much the same as the rest of trumps tenure...its like some sort of surreal joke

[maqroll]

I really doubt they would try to bomb Guam, they know they'd be annihilated, but this is definitely a new low. We need our allies to help take the lead on this because our president is wildly unfit for his office.

SOS

[Chindie]

North Korea isn't suicidal, they won't do anything that actively makes America's decision for them as they know the country would be a smouldering crater within hours, even if Seoul gets hammered and so on, so the chance of something happening is basically down to how much the US is prepared to accept North Korea making them look stupid versus how much they're prepared to risk to back up years of bluster.

Which makes Trump's outburst stupider. It's more bluster that so far has achieved nothing, further playing into the game that the US is all mouth in the Korean peninsula, but one that is also entirely made of raised stakes war rhetoric that only pushes tensions further towards the unthinkable. It's more or less the worst thing he could have said other than 'Launch'.

Diplomacy is the only answer here but the egos and agendas will not let that happen. So instead we continue to kick the can down the road with the stakes ever higher and no idea when the road might end.

And the guy kicking the can might just decide to stamp on it, because he's a big man, y'know. The biggest.

[HanoiVillan]

It's an object lesson in why you shouldn't pick someone palpably unfit for office because it's amusing, or because it'll annoy the right people. 

[tonyh29]

5 hours ago, maqroll said:

This is all playing right into Bannon/Trump's hands. They can use this NK crisis to deflect any prosecution against them by Mueller or anyone else. And then there's the actual crisis itself. Hopefully cool heads prevail, but with Trump at the helm, it'll be an absolute shitshow no matter what happens.

tbh it reminds me of JFK bringing the U.S to the brink of war before backing down to the Russians ... all that remains is to see who blinks first (assuming they do !!) and if Trump can spin it as well as JFK

it's a tough one , I'm fairly sure a lot of people would have cheered the demise of the Kim dynasty previously ,with each missile test he becomes harder to remove  , hence his race to get there , he probably didn't bank on a time when he wasn't the maddest leader on the planet , but Trump is probably still more likely to go to war with Iran before the DPRK  ... heck that's a depressing read isn't it !!

 

[Dr_Pangloss]

I'm fairly convinced that Trump is going to start a war. His approval ratings are going through the floor, I reckon his team figure that a war can boost them. This is not going to end well at all, I believe his strategy is to poke the hornets nest sufficiently for Kim to make the first move. Recent sanctions could wipe almost two thirds (in value terms) off it's exports, that of course is a major economic blow, this coupled with Trump's very public and hardline rhetoric could push a madman like Kim over the edge. 

The question then is what China will do, they have of course historically supported North Korea because they do not want 'US forces' on it's boarder. A decimated North Korea would almost certainly lead to a reunification, China would historically see this as 'war-worthy' in itself, so will be an enormous test for them as the world's economic superpower. 

[tonyh29]

12 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

I believe his strategy is to poke the hornets nest sufficiently for Kim to make the first move.

I know there is a lot of Trump hate in this world , but that's taking it to a whole new level 

KJU has been doing this since Trump was just a  businessman who hosted a TV show

 

12 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

Recent sanctions could wipe almost two thirds (in value terms) off it's exports

There is kind of a lesson here as well with the Japanese and WW2  as to one way it could play out when a Nation is brought to it's knees  with embargos...  I'm just sitting here waiting for Putin to make his move tbh

Edited August 9, 2017 by tonyh29

[tonyh29]

fwiw I asked my Korean watcher mate on his thoughts , he replied

 

97% bluster but with an unwelcome soupçon of the kind of ill-judged posturing we can all well do without. In the spirit of putting my money where my mouth is, I'm sitting on the 12:35 from London to Seoul as we speak...

[TheAuthority]

2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

I'm sitting on the 12:35 from London to Seoul as we speak...

I didn't know there was a train from London to Seoul 

[peterms]

40 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

I didn't know there was a train from London to Seoul 

 

[villakram]

Worth having a listen to what Tillerson had to say about and perhaps not spending so much time interpreting tweets, literally. 

[tonyh29]

7 hours ago, villa4europe said:

you can imagine the stereotypical american yokel whooping and raising their flag in their garden this morning grabbing their gun, drinking their blue ribbon, getting in their truck absolutely loving this

while the rest of the world shakes their head in a mixture of despair and disbelief 

its pretty much the same as the rest of trumps tenure...its like some sort of surreal joke

I was just reading the Nuclear war ( next week ) thread  from 2103 when KJU did his last set of posturing  ....funny what changes in 4 years  as it's almost as if America are now the bad guys

the other thread was mainly about how the DPRK can't launch anything that would harm America ... it may well still be the case , but again in only 4 years they appear to have made great strides , perhaps CI was correct and Obama should have goner for a pre-emptive strike  

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

23 minutes ago, villakram said:

Worth having a listen to what Tillerson had to say about and perhaps not spending so much time interpreting tweets, literally. 

the Whitehouse have told us that Trumps tweets are official statements.

the 'they're only tweets' defense simply doesn't stand up.

regardless of the medium, when the POTUS has something to say, people will listen.