Tom13 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 We could just finish fourth 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, ben1505 said: I did an 6 game rolling points total for this season. Our lowest was 7 points and happened once. Insane that we got 16 points from 6 games on 8 occasions. I know that it's the end of the season, we've got players missing, and some tough fixtures but it would take an implosion of Spurs/Arsenal porportions to see us get 0 points from our last 6 games. Cheers for this. Lose on Sunday and I think the lowest becomes a 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben1505 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Cheers for this. Lose on Sunday and I think the lowest becomes a 5. Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 11 VT Supporter Share Posted April 11 7 hours ago, jayEm said: That is frustrating, but West Ham beating Bayer Leverkusen was always pretty unlikely given the season they've had. Limiting them to only winning one leg would be nice though. Yes, West Ham just getting a draw out of one of the legs would be a bonus point - let's not forget that when it's underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted April 11 VT Supporter Share Posted April 11 28 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: Yes, West Ham just getting a draw out of one of the legs would be a bonus point - let's not forget that when it's underway. Bayer Leverkusen will not have played against a West Ham style team , they stand a chance of getting something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 33 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: Yes, West Ham just getting a draw out of one of the legs would be a bonus point - let's not forget that when it's underway. Liverpool will hopefully cancel out Leverkusen meaning we make the difference this week It'll come down to the finals though me thinks, it won't be decided this round (unless all the Germans go out) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I'm not writing West Ham off, they've every chance of frustrating BL. I'm also going wins for us and the scouse so I think we will be approx 0.5 points ahead of the Germans after tonight. I'm usually dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, villa4europe said: Liverpool will hopefully cancel out Leverkusen meaning we make the difference this week It'll come down to the finals though me thinks, it won't be decided this round (unless all the Germans go out) If Dortmund, Bayern and Leverkusen go through then yeah we won't know till the final probably. If two of those go out then it's done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powehi Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Just now, omariqy said: If Dortmund, Bayern and Leverkusen go through then yeah we won't know till the final probably. If two of those go out then it's done. You're the stats guy, is it actually done if two of them go out? Cos that is pretty feasible. Would be amazing to have 5th for CL confirmed by next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 23 minutes ago, Powehi said: You're the stats guy, is it actually done if two of them go out? Cos that is pretty feasible. Would be amazing to have 5th for CL confirmed by next week. Depending on how it actually happens I.e over pens or straight victories then it's likely an English team would only need a draw in one of the legs to get enough points. If City and Arsenal go through then it's guaranteed as they play each other so guaranteed points. Will do an update after tonight with a likely scenario for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post colhint Posted April 11 Popular Post Share Posted April 11 (edited) Ignoring laverkusen for a minute, I'll come back to them. If we and Liverpool win tonight, then arsenal and man city win next week, we have it. We currently have 132 points divided by 8 original teams teams giving us a coefficient of 16.5 If plop and us win tonight, not the overall the just tonight that gives us four extra points. If the arse and city both win they get an extra 2 points each for the win plus an extra one point for round progression. So our 132 points are now 142. Making the coefficient 142/8 = 17.75. However seeing as arsenal and man city will play in the semi final whichever way it falls we get 5 points. So now the equation is 147/8 = 18.35. Back to laverkusen. With bayern and Dortmund out only laverkusen can collect points the maximum they can collect by winning every leg and the final and found progression is 12 points. Germany currently sit on 115. 5 / 7 = 16.5 Add on the 12 becomes 127.5 /7= 18.21 Which is below the 18.35 for us. One thing if both arsenal and man city win on pens, then it would require three points from us or liverpool. A win for Liverpool in the second leg would do it on its own as they get progression points. Edited April 11 by colhint 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callum Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 23 minutes ago, colhint said: Ignoring laverkusen for a minute, I'll come back to them. If we and Liverpool win tonight, then arsenal and man city win next week, we have it. We currently have 132 points divided by 8 original teams teams giving us a coefficient of 16.5 If plop and us win tonight, not the overall the just tonight that gives us four extra points. If the arse and city both win they get an extra 2 points each for the win plus an extra one point for round progression. So our 132 points are now 142. Making the coefficient 142/8 = 17.75. However seeing as arsenal and man city will play in the semi final whichever way it falls we get 5 points. So now the equation is 147/8 = 18.35. Back to laverkusen. With bayern and Dortmund out only laverkusen can collect points the maximum they can collect by winning every leg and the final and found progression is 12 points. Germany currently sit on 115. 5 / 7 = 16.5 Add on the 12 becomes 127.5 /7= 18.21 Which is below the 18.35 for us. One thing if both arsenal and man city win on pens, then it would require three points from us or liverpool. A win for Liverpool in the second leg would do it on its own as they get progression points. Circuitry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilbertoAVFC Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Bowen potentially out for both legs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 4 hours ago, gilbertoAVFC said: Bowen potentially out for both legs What's wrong with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 (edited) Edited April 11 by zak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Come on Atalanta, no desire to cheer on the scum 6 in Europe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oishiiniku_uk Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 I still think we can get fourth, especially if Spurs drop points against Newcastle at the weekend. The average league position of their next five opponents is 4.6 and all of those teams are in the top seven in the form table. Also, Spurs have won only 1 of their previous 6 away games, taking 6 of 18 pts in the process. If we can go into the last two rounds of games with a 3+ point lead and a superior goal difference then we will be in great shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Just based on expected odds: We have 39.8% chance of 4th. We have 53.9% chance of 5th Currently there is 84.4% chance Prem gets 5 CL spots 85.3% chance of Champions League. Things look good Now let's smash Lille to increase it more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, zak said: Just based on expected odds: We have 39.8% chance of 4th. We have 53.9% chance of 5th Currently there is 84.4% chance Prem gets 5 CL spots 85.3% chance of Champions League. Things look good Now let's smash Lille to increase it more Where did these percentages come from, they've dropped a lot in terms of 4th/5th? Appreciated we lost ground but only 54% for 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben1505 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 18 minutes ago, beasley14 said: Where did these percentages come from, they've dropped a lot in terms of 4th/5th? Appreciated we lost ground but only 54% for 5th? Is that at least 5th? If not then there’s a possibility we can finish 4th, which would lower the probability of us finishing 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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