With Yet Another Team Being Bought by an Oil Nation, Can Villa Ever Compete Regularly?

[KMitch]

Rant Incoming:

With Manchester United being bought out by the Qataris, it'll mean we'll be competing against yet another sovereign nation with unlimited oil money in the League.  This Qatari ownership group has already shown they'll break FFP rules at PSG and bribe officials to avoid anything more than a fine, so what's going to stop them here?  Between Newcastle & Chelsea's new ownership and Man City's blatant disregard of the Premier League FFP rules setting the precedent for other English clubs to follow, I'm really finding it hard to bother caring about football anymore.  Starting to feel like my love with Aston Villa is like a long term relationship coming to an end.  I love this club and I can't even entertain the thought of supporting another one, but I think this relationship will bring me nothing but anger and frustration in the years ahead.  What's the point even supporting the club when even at our best, we'll never be competing for more than just the scraps of the oil nations?  Why bother subjecting myself with the pain of season after season of finishing outside the 7 teams that are allowed to spend more money than everyone else, hoping that one of them will slip up for a season or two so we can slip into Europe or sneak a domestic cup win before dropping back into mid-table mediocrity?

As much as I hated relegation, I really enjoyed our time in the Championship because we were actually competitive again for the first time in a very long time.  Going into every match knowing that we were likely to win and competing for the league title, or the very least automatic promotion, was frankly a breath of fresh air after years of circling the drain down the Premier League table toward relegation.  That 10 game winning run resulting in the Wembley win and subsequent promotion was arguably the best of times as my ~20 years supporting the club.  The Premier League is broken because it's not competitive anymore.  There are 7 clubs who can outspend everyone else and on a long enough timeline, they'll be the teams who will continue to dominate the table and pocket more money than everyone else.  Sure, occasionally you'll have a Brighton or a Brentford who will punch above their weight for a season or two and take advantage of poor form from the top 7, but that isn't sustainable long term. Look at Leicester & West Ham's fall this season for example...

What's the point in following football anymore and continuing to support a broken system that continues to bring me more headaches than joy every season?

Before anyone says "go support another club" you're missing the point...  I love Villa and I'd rather stop watching footy all together than sell my soul and glory chase with the other plastic fans, but the Premier League is broken.  Unless NSWE start regularly spending a ridiculous amount of money on player wages/transfer fees and start breaching FFP rules, even having an elite manager like Emery, the chances of us breaking into the top 4 consistently are very low.  I can't be the only one frustrated by this fact...  Just look at the match threads when we're losing or the transfer window threads.  Every day we're in there venting our frustrations about "why aren't we winning, signing good players, being competitive like the teams ahead of us, etc".  For the first time ever during my ~20 years as a fan, we finally have an ownership team who is competent and making consistently solid decisions, but I feel like the Villa fanbase is even more volatile than it was 10 years ago.  I feel like the goal posts keep getting moved further and further away from us and we're more and more likely to stand still or fall backward down the table without additional significant financial backing.  

 

TL;DR

Can Villa compete long term in the Premier League with the continuing injection of oil money into other teams?  What keeps you going as a fan, knowing just how stacked against us the deck is?  When do we walk away and stop contributing to this broken system?

[MNVillan]

Can we compete: depends on what you are talking about. No, I don’t see us competing for the Premier League title or Champions League any time soon.

What keeps you going: I love Villa and the vibe surrounding the club. It’s more than wins and losses.

When do I walk away: probably when I die.

 

It’s a fixed system, no doubt. But I believe I’ll see a cup win before I die. I’ve only been following Villa for a decade and have seen two cup finals.
 

In addition, I still find euphoria in a Villa win. They might not come regularly at this point, but the feeling doesn’t fade. Konsa against Watford, Barkley against Leicester, Hourihane & Tammy in the first leg against Baggies… I can’t replicate those emotions doing anything else.

[villa4europe]

No

And definitley not with FFP added in on top

The best we could hope for is FFP is scrapped entirely and our billionaire owners are more willing to spend than their billionaire owners or we also win the Arab state lottery, with no FFP I believe our owners would be putting more of their own money in than spurs, Arsenal's, Liverpools and utds, we wouldn't be throwing money at it like Chelsea, city or Newcastle but we'd be more in the mix

The saddest thing is which ever system they adopt it's still a case of money and buying the league, the traditional sense of great scouting and building a team has long gone, we laud Brighton and Brentford etc for what they're doing but what exactly are they doing? They aren't competiting in the same way we aren't competiting, it's a myth cooked up by sky to sell their PL product

[blunther]

It's bollocks but it's an addiction. I hate it. I want to support my club that means so much but the game is broken, prices are getting ridiculous and I don't know what my breaking point will be, but it's coming soon. 

[WallisFrizz]

18 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

No

And definitley not with FFP added in on top

The best we could hope for is FFP is scrapped entirely and our billionaire owners are more willing to spend than their billionaire owners or we also win the Arab state lottery, with no FFP I believe our owners would be putting more of their own money in than spurs, Arsenal's, Liverpools and utds, we wouldn't be throwing money at it like Chelsea, city or Newcastle but we'd be more in the mix

The saddest thing is which ever system they adopt it's still a case of money and buying the league, the traditional sense of great scouting and building a team has long gone, we laud Brighton and Brentford etc for what they're doing but what exactly are they doing? They aren't competiting in the same way we aren't competiting, it's a myth cooked up by sky to sell their PL product

To be fair I could see Brighton possibly overtaking Newcastle and getting a CL spot. That would definitely be doing something.

[Jareth]

Villa will be a very different beast next season - I think we will definitely be competing. Titles take huge squad depth - unlikely we can buy and dope our way like city, but an excellent youth set up would go a long way. I’m hopeful. 

[Delphinho123]

1 hour ago, MNVillan said:

Can we compete: depends on what you are talking about. No, I don’t see us competing for the Premier League title or Champions League any time soon.

What keeps you going: I love Villa and the vibe surrounding the club. It’s more than wins and losses.

When do I walk away: probably when I die.

 

It’s a fixed system, no doubt. But I believe I’ll see a cup win before I die. I’ve only been following Villa for a decade and have seen two cup finals.
 

In addition, I still find euphoria in a Villa win. They might not come regularly at this point, but the feeling doesn’t fade. Konsa against Watford, Barkley against Leicester, Hourihane & Tammy in the first leg against Baggies… I can’t replicate those emotions doing anything else.

Here-in lies why nobody can truly walk away. Nail. Head.

[villa4europe]

8 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

To be fair I could see Brighton possibly overtaking Newcastle and getting a CL spot. That would definitely be doing something.

Followed by Newcastle, chelsea man utd with new owners, Liverpool with new owners all spending another billion on their squads, probably with a few Brighton players and that's kind of the thing, the notion that competition in the PL for the other 14 teams actually means for a EL or CL place, it doesn't mean laying a glove on man City

There will always be an opportunity to sneak in to a European place because in truth the top 6 teams can be badly ran and slip up but if they got their shit together no one else should get a look in

Leicester have shown you can't win a seat at the top table, it has to be bought, Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, us if we get there the PL and the money and FFP it's not set up for us to sustain any kind of success and competition

[WallisFrizz]

1 minute ago, villa4europe said:

Followed by Newcastle, chelsea man utd with new owners, Liverpool with new owners all spending another billion on their squads, probably with a few Brighton players and that's kind of the thing, the notion that competition in the PL for the other 14 teams actually means for a EL or CL place, it doesn't mean laying a glove on man City

There will always be an opportunity to sneak in to a European place because in truth the top 6 teams can be badly ran and slip up but if they got their shit together no one else should get a look in

Leicester have shown you can't win a seat at the top table, it has to be bought, Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, us if we get there the PL and the money and FFP it's not set up for us to sustain any kind of success and competition

Yes but don’t write it off like it would be insignificant. If Villa went on a run that saw us qualify for CL then had anywhere near the success Leicester have had (FA cup, several seasons near the top), it would be amazing and I would definitely see us as competing. 
 

[villa4europe]

9 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

Yes but don’t write it off like it would be insignificant. If Villa went on a run that saw us qualify for CL then had anywhere near the success Leicester have had (FA cup, several seasons near the top), it would be amazing and I would definitely see us as competing. 
 

Its an illusion of competition, that's what the PL is

If we have an incredible season next season and get CL which we all know is beyond unlikely in itself, what happens to us? We get CL because Duran gets 30 goals, kamara is the best CM in the league, Carlos the best CB, you think those 3 players play for villa the season after? We invest a load more money on the squad, we spend £300m on what we consider CL ready players on our squad, how do much do man utd spend? How much to man City spend on one player?

The PL is set up for us not to be able to sustain it and then like I said how do we then go from getting 4th to challenging city? The simple answer is that we can't, we can win a cup, we can get 4th, we can do what Leicester did and blag a title when all 6 teams decide not to turn up one year... But we can not get a seat at the top table, it will not happen, the league and the rules don't let it happen

we will never ever get a main shirt sponsorship deal worth more than man utd and that is how modern football is now geared towards, our revenue is a 3rd of the Manchester clubs, that won't change in my lifetime, it will only get worse

Edit - and I will add this isn't a Villa thing and I'll throw this out for consideration - does anyone think spurs are competiting with man City? Because I don't

Edited February 18, 2023 by villa4europe

[CVByrne]

If City are punished for their cheating. If there is proper effort to stop these petrostates getting around the rules by inflated commercial sponsorships, playing friendly games in middle east where they're paid 10-20m for one game. Paying players and staff little top ups or whatever via 3rd parties. All the things that allow them to get around the leagues financial rules. If we police it properly then we can compete. The maximum per year any owner can pump into a club is £30m. That to NS is pennies when the money put in increase the overall value of the asset AVFC (and V sports Group). 

If the game and rules are policed fully we can compete. I think the PL needs to put a cap on allowable 3rd party income to be used in the sustainability calculations. This means any additional commercial income (through affiliated sponsors and one off games) above the set threshold will stop. It should be set by looking at the top 4 PL clubs and fixing the cap at 90% of the average. 

We the rebalance the way the PL prize money is awarded. The next time there is a renegotiation it'll be to divvy up a bigger pile of revenue and more should go rebalancing the distribution to increase competition. These two measures limit the unfair and untrustworthy commercial income streams of the top clubs and also raises the incomes of the lower clubs. Closing the financial gap and thus boosting competition. 

[Dale]

10 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

It should be set by looking at the top 4 PL clubs and fixing the cap at 90% of the average

Or the top 20... Make them go and find a sponsor, not more sugar from daddy 

[sne]

Manure getting even richer doesn't really change much for us. We were never catching them anyway. Saudi owning Newcastle (and Sheff U) does change things.

[punkiller1981]

I don’t think the Man Utd deal makes that much difference from a financial point of view because if you look at the money Utd have spent in the last few seasons of failure it’s huge compared to almost all clubs except maybe Chelsea. The are only so many world class and top level players out there and extra money doesn’t just magic more players but I guess it’s how they structure the club and take it forward but I think it would be foolish to think Utd wouldn’t have come back at some point anyway.

[CVByrne]

Just now, Dale said:

Or the top 20... Make them go and find a sponsor, not more sugar from daddy 

The reason you can't do that is it would mean they have to cut their current squads salaries or sell players etc. Their current finances are based off this as allowable income. 

Commercial revenue can be capped at say £200m and drop it by £10m per season to £150m in 5 seasons. Just the PL rules, not UEFA ones which are to drop to 70% of total revenue to be spent on players. The two rules can live side by side nicely. 

[CVByrne]

3 minutes ago, sne said:

Manure getting even richer doesn't really change much for us. We were never catching them anyway. Saudi owning Newcastle (and Sheff U) does change things.

Yeah their owners were leeching the club anyway with dividends. With simply any new ownership United would be the top spenders given their standing. 

[TRO]

7 minutes ago, sne said:

Manure getting even richer doesn't really change much for us. We were never catching them anyway. Saudi owning Newcastle (and Sheff U) does change things.

took the words out of my mouth.

Man U don't make much difference.

Now is the time, for us to get in quick and rebuild, while we can.

Edited February 18, 2023 by TRO

[Zhan_Zhuang]

It does seem all rather futile and has done for quite some time...

Even when we had some moderate success our best players got picked off, Barry, Young, Benteke etc...

It will happen again and again.

We may be able to get into the top ten, perhaps top eight but I don't see much higher anytime soon.

Things need to change, supposedly the PL is a competition which stands for equality. Yet it seems like the haves and have nots. The league needs a salary cap, measures and rules to stop over-spending. Man. City must be charged and made an example of.

Could be worse I suppose the SPL has been dominated by Rangers and Celtic for nearly forty years, think it was 1984 the last time another team won there!

[TRO]

6 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said:

It does seem all rather futile and has done for quite some time...

Even when we had some moderate success our best players got picked off, Barry, Young, Benteke etc...

It will happen again and again.

We may be able to get into the top ten, perhaps top eight but I don't see much higher anytime soon.

Things need to change, supposedly the PL is a competition which stands for equality. Yet it seems like the haves and have nots. The league needs a salary cap, measures and rules to stop over-spending. Man. City must be charged and made an example of.

Could be worse I suppose the SPL has been dominated by Rangers and Celtic for nearly forty years, think it was 1984 the last time another team won there!

I don't quite see it like that, but empathise with your view.

I seek comfort from what Leicester did, and us before them, some say its all changed but even in 1980, Liverpool, Man U and Arsenal, were still the dominant forces and the attractive destinations for top players.

Prudent recruitment is still a huge factor, in the balance of power.....The rich clubs still waste a lot of money.

I accept the academy as a good route, but my money is on good recruitment......I think In releative terms Brentford and Brighton have been good examples of how they have challneged the status quo.

Money, will always be a huge advantage, but it has to be aligned with good recruitment....one without the other, is questionable.

Our owners give us liquidity, they will never give us financial advantage, Like Man City or Chelsea.....even Newcastle to date have been relatively prudent, albeit are they just waiting to pounce.

I think there is enough to be excited about, if we can get in players, who make that difference, they don't have to be record signings....they just need to be a significant contributor to a balanced team. That imo will take us a long way.

PS it wasn't so long ago, we piped Arsenal to Buendia and then bid for Smith-Rowe......The Arsenal fans were rocked by our impudence.....but they went on to make 4/5 really good signings, which has made a huge difference.....We have to build well on the back of our good signings else they will stagnate or get picked off by other clubs.

[Zatman]

Not sure the panic, as said in United thread. Qatar have been poor owners in PSG for the investment made. 1 CL final and lost the title 2/3 times with an unlimited budget

Money helps but need smart ownership and football people

Edited February 18, 2023 by Zatman