mykeyb Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said: Jesus look at Manure fixtures all comps over 18 days. I assume this ok for this thread as relevant They can't be playing on 22nd and 23rd surely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Demitri_C said: It is but we need some luck for 6th. We literally have to win most of our games and hope others drop points (liverpool brighton) We have won the last 8 but for absolute bullshit penalty awarded to West Ham. Luck has nothing to do with it. Our wins are from preparation, team spirit, and belief. Why not enjoy the ride and not be glass half empty about everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 minute ago, mykeyb said: They can't be playing on 22nd and 23rd surely Might be one still to be rearranged as think FPL double game weeks haven't been finalized yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: So no use wanting Spurs to beat them. I want Spurs to drop out and us go ahead of them by the time we play and beat them Then surely a spurs loss is better for us unless I’m missing something? You’ve said a draw would be best for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted April 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted April 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Call me entitled or whatever. Conference is a crap competition. If we can't get europa or CL I'd rather finish 8th you can't pick and choose when you get europe. you take it when you can however it comes. it's a great chance to give tim, a. ramsey, archer and KKH regular competitive game time too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said: Then surely a spurs loss is better for us unless I’m missing something? You’ve said a draw would be best for us Yes I've never said Spurs beating Newcastle is good like many. Draw fine as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 The pressure is on Brighton and Liverpool. Yes, they have games in hand, but we have the points on the board. The pressure is on them to win those matches, we just have to keep doing what we are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: We have won the last 8 but for absolute bullshit penalty awarded to West Ham. Luck has nothing to do with it. Our wins are from preparation, team spirit, and belief. Why not enjoy the ride and not be glass half empty about everything Think you mis read my post i didnt say we were lucky at all mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Think you mis read my post i didnt say we were lucky at all mate Sorry over the top but we literally have won our last 8 except for draw from bad ref/VAR call for pen Edited April 17, 2023 by Kiwivillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 22 minutes ago, duke313 said: The minimum a team would earn from the group stage to winning the final is €13,329,000, maximum of €15,190,000. Are we turning that down?! Plus the extra £2-3M for the higher PL place. Plus anything else we make outside of competition payments, eg gates, commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viivvaa66 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said: This is about the equivalent of the FiveThirtyEight predictions as of yesterday, with fixtures ordered as they land (in italics are assumed order of unscheduled games), moving to a new row when next fixtures kick off after previous have finished. Has us 5th or tied 5th for most of remainder of season, even following the scheduled 36th game weekend, but final games for Spurs, Brighton and Liverpool push them ahead of us. in the last weeks. Winning every game gets us to 71 so 4th place is a massive ask that requires us to be near perfect and one of Utd and Newcastle to tank badly. 5th is well within our grasp now though. According to this 71 points would get us 4th place, no need for Newcastle or ManU to tank badly. Newcastle have played high intensity, high pressure all season, but last two games they have looked tired, could have a collapse. ManU have injury problems, plus fixture congestion, if they win against Sevilla they would have to fit in two Europa League semifinal legs in May. 65 points seems to secure 5th place, unless Newcastle or ManU tank badly. We would get 65 points if we win 5 of the remaining 7 games, I find that more likely than we only win 2 of the next 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeypuzzle Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 What do the opta stats say about our final predicted place, now that we've beaten Newcastle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, Monkeypuzzle said: What do the opta stats say about our final predicted place, now that we've beaten Newcastle? They lost their magic 8 ball so haven't updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 3 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: The 6 points isn't the issue. I get optimism and all that, but I don't see how people can blatantly ignore the clubs around us with games in hand. lol Realistically, we need to keep winning just to stay in 6th ffs, and even then, we could still win and not finish 6th. Brighton just need a draw to leapfrog us on GD with a game in hand for example. We'd have to win near all our remaining games to have a chance of finishing 4th. Let's be sensible, even as we break down barriers week by week. I feel this is why some people often end up dissappointed. While you're absolutely correct, this logic hasn't stopped me putting a cheeky $10 bet on us finishing in the top 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Interestingly, just having a quick flick through the predicted finishing's on the net. Most seem to have us 8th with 60 points after 38 games. I'd have been happy with that a couple of weeks ago, but now, I think we can top that. 4 wins in the last 7, beating Brighton on the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ghost said: While you're absolutely correct, this logic hasn't stopped me putting a cheeky $10 bet on us finishing in the top 4 Don't get me wrong, i'm not trying to shoot down @Pinebro optimism and positivity because it's refreshing. Mental that we can even be having the conversation in the first place. Up till now, every challenge and obstacle I thought we had, Unai and the team have destroyed. Let's see what the crack is after Brentford and Fulham! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 Considering other teams have games in hand,and taking into consideration the results we are getting under UE.I think we will finish 7th and qualify for the Conference league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: These prediction models are complete garbage. They probably use historical data and don't factor in recent form or how many fixtures teams have to play all comps. What's the bet model had us down for loss vs Chelsea and Newcastle I've mentioned the method they've used and how it's probably underestimating us becuase it's impacted by last season and our results under Gerrard this season as well. And over estimating the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool based on their results this season. It is adjusted after every game so recent form does impact it (eg. the Newcastle result caused the biggest game-on-game increase of the season in our ranking score on the site, which used to make the predictions) though historical data, especially for someone like us with such a drastic management change mid season, will probably impact more than it should. From the predictions it looks like there's definitely a weighting for home and away and possibly related to the form of the respective teams home and away as well. I doubt it factors fixture congestion into it. IMO the 60 point finish is only slightly below my initial expectations for these fixtures, which have us on 61, and 64 if adjusted in line with over performance to date. And they're not far off what I predicted for other teams about 10-12 games ago (I actually have Liverpool getting more) but have a bit more work behind them than my off-the-cuff predictions from months ago, so thought they'd be a reasonable benchmark for what we might be up against and where we might be sat in the table at various points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, tomav84 said: you can't pick and choose when you get europe. you take it when you can however it comes. it's a great chance to give tim, a. ramsey, archer and KKH regular competitive game time too Fans were outraged when MON treated Europe like a development arena for youngsters. If it's conference I couldn't care less. If it's europa I want us to go strong every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Pinebro said: Call me entitled or whatever. Conference is a crap competition. If we can't get europa or CL I'd rather finish 8th I’m the opposite, I’d love to see us in a new competition. Be like winning the League Cup in the early days, we have a tradition of it (I guess we won the actual league a lot in its early days as well…) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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