Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[The Fun Factory]

It is still a tall order but it is an achievable target for the players to act at least as motivation. So many times in the past Villa's season just whimper out.

[duke313]

4 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

It is still a tall order but it is an achievable target for the players to act at least as motivation. So many times in the past Villa's season just whimper out.

Definitely the most interesting end to a season I can remember, Title, Europe and Relegation could all go down to the last day.

[Philosopher]

I feel we can overhaul Brentford, but the tricky part is Brighton and / or Liverpool. Liverpool are brilliant one minute, average the next. Brighton are consistently hard to beat and just keep ticking away. 

I thought Newcastle would fade away in March / April and end up 5th or 6th, but that doesn't look too likely now. The Man U win will galvanise them.

We are the form team in the league outside the top 2. The Newcastle game on the 15th is big. But first we need six points against Leicester and Forest. That is very doable, but Leicester have always been a bogey team for us. If we can get 7 points from the next 3 games, that should be a good return.

[Steero113]

25 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

I feel we can overhaul Brentford, but the tricky part is Brighton and / or Liverpool. Liverpool are brilliant one minute, average the next. Brighton are consistently hard to beat and just keep ticking away. 

I thought Newcastle would fade away in March / April and end up 5th or 6th, but that doesn't look too likely now. The Man U win will galvanise them.

We are the form team in the league outside the top 2. The Newcastle game on the 15th is big. But first we need six points against Leicester and Forest. That is very doable, but Leicester have always been a bogey team for us. If we can get 7 points from the next 3 games, that should be a good return.

Since we regained PL status we have a record of W3 D2 L4 against Leicester in all comps. 

Think you might be mistaking them for Man City. 

[Philosopher]

6 minutes ago, Steero113 said:

Since we regained PL status we have a record of W3 D2 L4 against Leicester in all comps. 

Think you might be mistaking them for Man City. 

Since MON managed Leicester we have a losing record against them. They thumped us 4-2 at our place. Since we came up we have a losing record also. So they are a bit of a bogey team to me.

[fightoffyour]

It's impossible to finish 8th and get into Europe for doing so. That team would have to win a domestic or European competition to qualify.

We can't do that this season, so it's 7th place at least for us to have a chance (not even a guarantee) of getting into Europe. It is possible for 8 teams to qualify in unique scenarios, but it's more likely that the league places just get cut down to 5th/6th.

[Steero113]

10 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

Since MON managed Leicester we have a losing record against them. They thumped us 4-2 at our place. Since we came up we have a losing record also. So they are a bit of a bogey team to me.

That game was as far away from a "thumping" 4-2 result as you can possibly get. If anything, we were desperately unlucky to lose. Two of the goals for them were literally delivered on a silver platter through mistakes from playing out from the back. 

Leicester are a horrible team at the moment, they haven't won a game in 6, scoring only 3 goals and losing 5 games in that run and we should be heading into that game with massive confidence. They are in the bin and managerless. 

It will be a massive test of how far we've come under Emery if we don't pull a classic Villa and cock up against a side who cannot buy a win. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Steero113

[Kiwivillan]

Reading the Leicester forum for Villa game is interesting. Pages of going to lose not going to bother going, then Rodgers sacked and suddenly well fired up and think they're going to win and it's going to be a cauldron

[ender4]

For us to have a decent chance at getting into Europe, we can't really afford any slip-ups. That basically means Leicester and Nottingham are must win games. 

Then Newcastle and Fulham also need 4 points. 

I think that's the run needed of 3 wins & 1 draw out of next 4 games, as top 6 win most games as well.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said:

Wonderful attitude. Hypothetical injuries which all the teams above us could also suffer, not to mention some of them are in disarray. We've lost to Pool Arsenal City Leicester under Emery and arguably should've got points out of at least 2 of those. Have some faith man FFS

I don't think it's an unreasonable attitude or thing for @Demitri_C to say. We do have a thin squad; we would have to keep up Champions-League-qualifying form for the remainder of the season with some difficult games. It's not *impossible* and we have a better chance under this excellent manager than we have had for many many years, but finishing 8th - 10th is probably the most likely outcome. That would still be a massive, massive achievement after where the club was when Emery took over, and would still be an excellent springboard for next season. 

But at the end of the day, all we can do is take each game one by one and try and win what we can. We really need to take 6 points from the next two. 

[tomsky_11]

On 18/03/2023 at 20:15, tomsky_11 said:

Updated after today's games:

4th Newcastle 66

5th Liverpool 64

6th BHA 61

7th Spurs 61

8th Brentford 53

9th VILLA 53

10th Chelsea 52

11th Fulham 51

I've got 1 point from Chelsea and Leicester next two. 5 extra points to play for would make a big difference.

Updated to now:

4th Newcastle 68

5th Liverpool 64

6th Spurs 61

7th BHA 58

8th VILLA 56

9th Brentford 54

10th Chelsea 49

11th Fulham 48

Win tomorrow would tie us with Brighton. Or move us ahead if they also drop points at Bournemouth.

We are definitely in the mix, now even with Brighton's games in hand.

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said:

Wonderful attitude. Hypothetical injuries which all the teams above us could also suffer, not to mention some of them are in disarray. We've lost to Pool Arsenal City Leicester under Emery and arguably should've got points out of at least 2 of those. Have some faith man FFS

Aint you a bundle of joy 

You need to relax with your reply ffs its not like ive said we should aim for 10th to 15th

We dont have the squad options of a liverpool  spurs arsenal or chelsea.

Go on tell me who do we play up front if watkins gets injured? We got duran a young 19 year old. Bailey? Traore?

Its also a statistical fact that without mings we dont do well.  Dnt criticise us that are firmly keeping pur feet in the ground and setting ourselves up for possible disappointment 

Im delighted where we are currently. Your reply is very odd as i dontcthink im being unrealistic in saying 8th or 9th is a realistic aim 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Demitri_C

[Demitri_C]

28 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I don't think it's an unreasonable attitude or thing for @Demitri_C to say. We do have a thin squad; we would have to keep up Champions-League-qualifying form for the remainder of the season with some difficult games. It's not *impossible* and we have a better chance under this excellent manager than we have had for many many years, but finishing 8th - 10th is probably the most likely outcome. That would still be a massive, massive achievement after where the club was when Emery took over, and would still be an excellent springboard for next season. 

But at the end of the day, all we can do is take each game one by one and try and win what we can. We really need to take 6 points from the next two. 

Summed it up beautifully @HanoiVillan

[bobzy]

7 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Aint you a bundle of joy 

You need to relax with your reply ffs its not like ive said we should aim for 10th to 15th

We dont have the squad options of a liverpool  spurs arsenal or chelsea.

Go on tell me who do we play up front if watkins gets injured? We got duran a young 19 year old. Bailey? Traore?

I agree with you overall Dem - nothing wrong in thinking that we’re light and it’d take a lot (it would!) but I think the sides you’ve listed have the exact same issue as us, maybe with the exception of Liverpool but Salah is fairly irreplaceable.

Who do Spurs play if Kane gets injured? Who do Chelsea play up top if Havertz gets injured (maybe Sterling?!)? Arsenal go from having Jesus to Nketiah, who is fine but…

That drop off always exists in forward roles tbh. 

[VillaChris]

11 hours ago, Alakagom said:

If United win Europa League but finish outside of Top 4. We're cheering for United to shit the bed in league but keep winning in Europe 

I actually think that's a possibility (although would require Spurs or Brighton to have very strong ends to the season).

They've improved this season but in reality their best performers have been De Gea, Casemiro, Rashford and Eriksen.

Take two out of their 11 and they put in some bog standard performances. Wouldn't shock me if we go to Old Trafford and do a job on them again as we seem to like playing them these days.

[Demitri_C]

Just now, bobzy said:

I agree with you overall Dem - nothing wrong in thinking that we’re light and it’d take a lot (it would!) but I think the sides you’ve listed have the exact same issue as us, maybe with the exception of Liverpool but Salah is fairly irreplaceable.

Who do Spurs play if Kane gets injured? Who do Chelsea play up top if Havertz gets injured (maybe Sterling?!)? Arsenal go from having Jesus to Nketiah, who is fine but…

That drop off always exists in forward roles tbh. 

In sours case (and you might laugh) but richarldson. He at world cup was played up top and that showed where he is best form was. They have son who also has done well there.

Arsenal have jesus martenelli ans trossard all can play there. Nit to mention ESR

Newcastle have isak and wilson. We are short i think. Its not just the injuries the run in isnt easy the points return dor 6th would have to be absolutely remarkable for us to finosh 6th in my opinion. Not impossible but unlikely 

[VillaChris]

2 hours ago, duke313 said:

All depends on our next few games.  If we get 6 points of Leicester and Forest, we are right in the mix, if we don't probably a top half will be as good as we can hope for, which given where we were when Emery took over, is a massive achievement.

We could get four points and then beat Newcastle at home.

Key is to be on 50 points by end of April. I'd say Forest and Fulham need to be the banker wins and then you're looking for another. Could be Leicester, could be Newcastle.

Brentford away I'd take a point. It's insane they've lost five prem games all season (only once since our thrashing at VP in late October). Probably sums up the season well that Brentford away is more difficult to get three points than Chelsea these days!

Edited April 3, 2023 by VillaChris

[Villa87]

To finish top 6 I think we would need to win 7 or 8 games. Nice to think positively - I’m fully on the bandwagon as momentum is huge in football, but I’m not sure we will win that many with some difficult games to play. 

[lapal_fan]

My guess is as follows;

Top four: Arsenal, City, Newcastle, United.

5th Liverpool on 74 pts

6th Brighton on 64 pts

7th Spurs on 63 pts

8th Villa on 60 pts

9th Brentford on 56 pts (lots of draws for them)

I've been a bit harsh on Villa because we have a small squad and I can see a few draws in there, but not losing much.  

I'd be happy to see 60pts! 

[The Fun Factory]

It's just annoying we still have the massive drag factor of the last days of Gerrard this season.  There has been an opportunity to get a European spot as both Chelsea and Liverpool are performing well below expectations/their budget. Both will surely perform better next year plus Newcastle will strengthen.