Title chase 2020/2021

[sidcow]

7 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

Smith isn't going to play 2 strikers. Ollie is the main man. Wesley will get chance back from injury and Traore has excellent record at CF. We're not getting another big money CF

We will need one if we're to compete top 4. Those big clubs have multiple striking options.  Ollie gets injured and we're looking at a striker coming back from a serious long term injury who still has questions about if he is good enough anyway, who may never get back to where he was. 

I agree it's unlikely but if the question is where do we need to improve depth then striker is unarguable. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I think the plan is Traore to back up Watkins with Wesley as striker. Davis I don't consider as an option anymore sadly so all things considered I doubt we will be in the market for a starting level striker.

 

 

[Guest av1]

9 hours ago, KentVillan said:

 

Credit to Smith for having the humility and leadership skills to involve them in his setup. He obviously listens to what they have to say, and the players are obviously learning from them.

 

Surrounding yourself with strong characters shows bravery and confidence in your own ability, as well the humility to want to learn.

I think it says so much about Dean as a man.

 

[TheMelvillan]

That Chelsea performance has rattled the bookies a bit. Villa were 100-1 to win the league before kickoff, 75-1 this morning (per PP)

 

[Guest av1]

I think the position we are in makes recruitment quite hard actually. Take Ollie for instance, the kid is incredible so it's unlikely/or at least incredibly difficult to attract better, but I don't think we've reached the point yet as a club where a top quality forward will be happy to play second fiddle. Chelsea are big enough to convince the likes of Werner, Tammy and Giroud to rotate, we're not there yet. 

With that in mind, I think the championship is a good hunting ground. Arguably 3 of our star players came from the championship (Cash, Watkins and Konsa). Another 2 of our star players couldn't get a sniff at their clubs (Targett and Emi). 

Also, I think part of the fantastic team spirit we have is in part (taking absolutely nothing away from the culture Smith has created) to having a team full of young players on the up, rather than those on the way down. I'd like players who see Villa as a big step up. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by av1

[VillaChris]

4 hours ago, AVTuco said:

Well winning up here is more fun of course. But I still think that continuous winning in the Championship beats continuous losing in the Prem.

Of course it does but surprised people thought due to last year we were never going to have a decent season ever again in premier league so were actively wishing for relegation.

Guess that's what the last decade has done to many!

[Mantis]

Odds of winning the title: 81/1

Odds of relegation: 501/1

[useless]

The year Leicester won the title they only had three more points than we have now after fourteen games.

[VillaChris]

8 hours ago, One For The Road said:

Not sure about that. I'd love us to win the FA Cup. Knock Liverpool out and get a good draw in round 4 and with this side, anything is now possible. 

Liverpool won't put out anything like a first choice team. Klopp usually wants to get knocked out of FA cup as soon as possible. They've also got Man. United at home a week later which is shaping up to be a huge one for title race. Can see Klopp resting all his front 3 and playing likes of Minamino and Origi.

Way Hause has played he's capable of keeping those quiet. Think we can beat Liverpool with a few regulars rested or if they're out suspended.

[VillaChris]

4 hours ago, Lord Willard said:

Leicester won the league with 81 points and Arsenal 2nd with 71. The last CL spot was 66. 

There is no way it's that low this season. Even 60 points doesn't usually get you a Europa spot. 

I reckon we'll finish 50-55 points. 

It could easily be lower. Chelsea played 16 games and they're not even on 30 points yet. Same ratio in next 16 games would have them on 52 points after 32 games so would need to win final 6 to get to 70 points. Also have to factor in extra games like CL (Atletico will likely knock them out) and FA cup where they usually have good runs.

As mediocre as Chelsea are currently, if you finish above them this season you're likely getting top 4.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Pissflaps said:

I think the plan is Traore to back up Watkins with Wesley as striker. Davis I don't consider as an option anymore sadly so all things considered I doubt we will be in the market for a starting level striker.

 

 

Who plays out wide out of interest if Trez and AEG are out at the same time if Traore has to fill in as CF? Jack and......?

We're still one attacking player light in the squad, surprised people are still arguing that.

[VillaFaninLondon]

I definitely think we should keep tracking the Championship, there are some top talents there like Olise at Reading who is destined for great things, but I'd also like to think a top 10 finish this season will allow us to attract players from the top European leagues. Sides like Ajax always produce top talents and I'd like us to be seen as a good option for these players before making the jump to a truly top side (though obviously I hope we can become that in future). We certainly are playing the right sort of football to be attractive to these players, though playing European football will be a lot more of a pull. Leicester are a side who really exploit the European market well and I'd like us to do the same.

 

Interestingly, this link shows the league table compared to expected goals for and goals against: https://understat.com/league/Premier League/2020 

• Our expected points is 27.25 so we are actually slightly underperforming
• Man U (surprise, surprise) are overperforming as their expected points is only 22.28
• Southampton and Everton are actually massively overperforming despite the hype about them this season
• Both City and Chelsea are underperforming. 

 

That's why I think 50-55 points is a bit pessimistic. Keep playing the way we are and we could easily eclipse 60 points. I'd like to think we could beat our highest points total in a 38-game season (64) but of course I'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground at the moment.

[DaveAV1]

3 hours ago, villalad21 said:

5th in the table with Everton being in and around us.

It's like we're back in 2009

It’s like we’re back on the 80s more like. 

[Adam2003]

4 hours ago, Keyblade said:

We already have half of that and were not even halfway through the season.

Either something is going to pick up somewhere but Liverpool are currently on course for 81 points. Top 4 right now if things continue like this is 73 points and we're currently on course for 71.

I'd guess that Liverpool will win it with 85/86 points and 4th place will be about 62 points.

Why do you see such a massive drop off from the likes of City, United, Everton - all currently on course to finish 70+ points - and Leicester and Spurs etc all well into the 60s? Or did you mean to type 72 points not 62 points (in which case I agree with your calculation!)

[Dodgyknees]

Honestly, we won’t win the league.

What a difference though!?

[John]

Coral have us 50/1 to win the league, 9/1 to be top 4 & 3/1 to be top 6! They don't quote us to be relegated, only going down to Wolves on 66/1.  

I'm loving this...

[Dodgyknees]

1 minute ago, John said:

Coral have us 50/1 to win the league, 9/1 to be top 4 & 3/1 to be top 6! They don't quote us to be relegated, only going down to Wolves on 66/1.  

I'm loving this...

I am also loving it. I think this is our transition season from struggling to competing for top 8. 
 

Next season....

[VillaChris]

17 minutes ago, Adam2003 said:

Why do you see such a massive drop off from the likes of City, United, Everton - all currently on course to finish 70+ points - and Leicester and Spurs etc all well into the 60s? Or did you mean to type 72 points not 62 points (in which case I agree with your calculation!)

Everton season seems to have mirrored ours step by step. Like us they won their first 4 games, like us they then lost 4 out of 5 during late October and November and like us they've had a very strong December period and got 3 points against some good teams.

Still only 3 points ahead of us but we'd be ahead of them if we'd played and won the Newcastle game already.

Really don't think there's much in it which is testament to how well we've done given Everton again spent big money on established internationals last season and have a top manager in charge now.

They have quite a tricky run of games up to start of March so optimistic we can still track them.

[Rightdm00]

33 minutes ago, VillaFaninLondon said:

I definitely think we should keep tracking the Championship, there are some top talents there like Olise at Reading who is destined for great things, but I'd also like to think a top 10 finish this season will allow us to attract players from the top European leagues. Sides like Ajax always produce top talents and I'd like us to be seen as a good option for these players before making the jump to a truly top side (though obviously I hope we can become that in future). We certainly are playing the right sort of football to be attractive to these players, though playing European football will be a lot more of a pull. Leicester are a side who really exploit the European market well and I'd like us to do the same.

 

Interestingly, this link shows the league table compared to expected goals for and goals against: https://understat.com/league/Premier League/2020 

• Our expected points is 27.25 so we are actually slightly underperforming
• Man U (surprise, surprise) are overperforming as their expected points is only 22.28
• Southampton and Everton are actually massively overperforming despite the hype about them this season
• Both City and Chelsea are underperforming. 

 

That's why I think 50-55 points is a bit pessimistic. Keep playing the way we are and we could easily eclipse 60 points. I'd like to think we could beat our highest points total in a 38-game season (64) but of course I'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground at the moment.

I think the pessimism stems from the amount of variables needed to line up in our favor. Injuries are going to make or break us. We just don't have the quality to maintain our level of play if one of our key contributers went out long term. 

When leicester won the league they were able to name a unchanged starting 11 for the last 20 games or so. We would need that level of consistency for any chance at 60+ points. 

[One For The Road]

53 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Liverpool won't put out anything like a first choice team. Klopp usually wants to get knocked out of FA cup as soon as possible. They've also got Man. United at home a week later which is shaping up to be a huge one for title race. Can see Klopp resting all his front 3 and playing likes of Minamino and Origi.

Way Hause has played he's capable of keeping those quiet. Think we can beat Liverpool with a few regulars rested or if they're out suspended.

I don't care what Liverpool do. I just want to beat them. Again.