HanoiVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Awol said: Look at the Italy graph when they were in the same situation as us: case-case-case, cluster-cluster-cluster, boom. You’re also assuming fairly direct levels of contact to achieve onward transmission but that doesn’t appear to be the case. It can survive in the air for at least 30 minutes in an enclosed space. It can live on a hard surface for several days. In an urban environment we don’t need to guess what happens, we’ve already seen it. Hence endlessly exhorting is to wash our hands.. The virus just isn't endlessly infectious though; the r0 appears to be between 2 and 3, not infinity. Right now, an r0 of 3 means 3 uninfected people with no immunity, but eventually that 3 people will contain other sick individuals (either symptomatically or asymptomatically) and recovered people with immunity. In any case, as I say, governments will put into place measures - just as the Chinese did - that limit the population for the r0 to expand into. Shorter: Lots and lots of people will get sick, but it isn't exponential because there is a factor (sick and recovered people) reducing the virus's possible growth opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 hours ago, leemond2008 said: My Mom n Dad keep on warning me that I shouldn't go to the cinema at the moment (I usually go once or twice a week) they are convinced that I will 100% catch it from there, I told my Dad that I checked earlier and the film I'm going to see tomorrow currently has 11 other seats booked, I explained that as I was talking to him I was on a bus with at least 50 other people (all in close proximity) and coming out of an office with about 600 staff which is based smack bang in the centre of Town, sitting in a room for 2 hours with 11 other people is the very least of my worries right now. Then I told him that if I stop going to the cinema I'll have to stop going to the gym, he felt that this was a good idea, I told him that if I'm going to stop going to the gym and the cinema then maybe I should get my shopping delivered instead of walking to the high street, again, he said its better to be safe than sorry, then I said it is probably for the best that we give our tickets away for the Chelsea game, his response was "you can't let it take over your life, you can still go down the Villa" the frightening thing is that he was deadly serious about all this. So according to my old man, empty cinemas and gyms are definite no go areas, a stadium filled with 42,000 people crammed in and hustling and bustling to get through the crowds to get their half time pint is absolutely fine. You go the cinema once or twice A WEEK ? Are you the choc ice seller ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: There are very few places I ever go to that are less sanitary than Villa Park, that's for **** sure. How true. I’d imagine most of our immune systems would resist anything lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post terrytini Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, wilko154 said: At Leicester last night I went for a slash and witnessed almost every single bloke wash their hands. I've never seen so many men take personal hygiene so seriously. You pissed on their hands ? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Decision made, holiday cancelled. I'm mentally destroyed by it tbh. I had all of my eggs in this basket and it's gone like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 DR John Campbell's following blog was recommended as providing a very good and balanced update on the coronavirus spread by a senior NHS virologist. Points of interest to me were Government line that facemasks wont make a difference is BS. China Singapore and South Korea show the spread can be stopped US is in a bad place. We are being remarkably lax about measures to stop the spread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The virus just isn't endlessly infectious though; the r0 appears to be between 2 and 3, not infinity. Right now, an r0 of 3 means 3 uninfected people with no immunity, but eventually that 3 people will contain other sick individuals (either symptomatically or asymptomatically) and recovered people with immunity. In any case, as I say, governments will put into place measures - just as the Chinese did - that limit the population for the r0 to expand into. Shorter: Lots and lots of people will get sick, but it isn't exponential because there is a factor (sick and recovered people) reducing the virus's possible growth opportunities. My original post was saying the infection rate is growing exponentially now, I’ve posted the data for that claim from Italy. It hasn’t yet got its teeth into other European populations the same way, or if it has they are still asymptomatic and spreading it - infectious 12-24 hours after exposure, and between 5-14 days to become symptomatic. That’s where the boom comes from further down the road. I’m trying to say what matters is what’s happening now and what we, as individuals might do to try and avoid becoming part of the problem. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The virus just isn't endlessly infectious though; the r0 appears to be between 2 and 3, not infinity. Right now, an r0 of 3 means 3 uninfected people with no immunity, but eventually that 3 people will contain other sick individuals (either symptomatically or asymptomatically) and recovered people with immunity. In any case, as I say, governments will put into place measures - just as the Chinese did - that limit the population for the r0 to expand into. Shorter: Lots and lots of people will get sick, but it isn't exponential because there is a factor (sick and recovered people) reducing the virus's possible growth opportunities. It’s logistic (for the reasons you give), but the first part of a logistic curve looks exponential, and we’re still a fair way off the inflection point. This will grow “exponentially” for a few days / weeks before the factors you mention kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Sure, I'm not disagreeing! But it does make a pretty enormous difference whether the virus ends up infecting, say, 5 million people in the UK or 30 million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemond2008 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, terrytini said: You go the cinema once or twice A WEEK ? Are you the choc ice seller ? yep, got an unlimited pass and I don't have much else to do so I pop up after work and on a weekend, I'll go and watch any old shite, think I've been to see about 25 films since the end of September. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Sure, I'm not disagreeing! But it does make a pretty enormous difference whether the virus ends up infecting, say, 5 million people in the UK or 30 million people. Correct, but I think the key pressure now is availability of healthcare - ie this whole concept of “flattening the curve” that has lots of good evidence behind it. Basically, 10 million cases spread over 2 months could be far more destructive than 30 million cases spread over 12 months, so we shouldn’t just be relying on the natural tailing off of the epidemic. This explanation of the maths is good Edited March 10, 2020 by KentVillan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, leemond2008 said: yep, got an unlimited pass and I don't have much else to do so I pop up after work and on a weekend, I'll go and watch any old shite, think I've been to see about 25 films since the end of September. Fair enough ....not sure I’ve been 25 times in 58 years so I was a bit shocked lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The virus just isn't endlessly infectious though; the r0 appears to be between 2 and 3, not infinity. Right now, an r0 of 3 means 3 uninfected people with no immunity, but eventually that 3 people will contain other sick individuals (either symptomatically or asymptomatically) and recovered people with immunity. In any case, as I say, governments will put into place measures - just as the Chinese did - that limit the population for the r0 to expand into. Shorter: Lots and lots of people will get sick, but it isn't exponential because there is a factor (sick and recovered people) reducing the virus's possible growth opportunities. I hadn’t considered some of that, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 So, it is down to assessing risk. I’m still working around the country, but driving, not using trains. Looks like we’ve decided against Villa vs Wolves, but I’ll still go watch the local team this Saturday. But I won’t sit with the Manager, he’s at The Gold Cup on Friday and has tickets for Sterephonics. Here’s one for the VT massive: The nipper has a street busk booked with the samba band, town centre, for Wales vs Scotland. Right now, my tactic is not to decline, but to watch the messages for another 48 hours in the ‘hope’ enough others decline to make it unviable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazzap24 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Correct, but I think the key pressure now is availability of healthcare - ie this whole concept of “flattening the curve” that has lots of good evidence behind it. Basically, 5 million cases spread over 2 months could be far more destructive than 30 million cases spread over 12 months, so we shouldn’t just be relying on the natural tailing off of the epidemic. This explanation of the maths is good I don't disagree with any of what you're saying. Flattening the curve is really important, and we will need to move to tougher distancing measures soon, as I mentioned above. In no way am I suggesting we just wait around for the inflection point and do nothing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiltorken Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Travelling from Dublin to Birmingham on Friday through to Sunday for the Chelsea game with the old man, while I'm not normally a worrier I'm a bit concerned about his wellbeing seeing as hes in his 70s bit worried about him picking something up. Should we give this one a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 You’ll all be devastated to hear Nadine Dorris has contracted Coronavirus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, wazzap24 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted March 10, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted March 10, 2020 How do we treat it if hospitals become full. Painkillers for the pain, drink water, purchase our own oxygen concentrators , use inhalers/ steroids . Think we have to move onto to the assumption we are going to get it and prepare to home treatment. Unfortunately i can see a situation were people die from the lack of a ventilator, oxygen ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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