AVFC_Hitz Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 cases confirmed in Sofia tonight. A husband and wife (over 70) who are in the ICU unit of a hospital about 250 metres from my front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tayls said: But not necessarily living with other health conditions? I’m so glad that I’m not reading stories about young people getting this, I’d crumble. I’m already on the verge of having a panic attack of some description. Strange though that it is only affecting adults - why would it be the case? What’s the science behind that - I’m oblivious. Yep, but as you say they were exposed to it very early on before I think even they really understood what they were dealing with. They would have only started taking precautions once it was already passed onto them, more likely. The situation in Italy is terrifying. Really terrifying. No need to panic. There is a need to recognise we’re temporarily living in a new environment and adjust your behaviour accordingly for a few months. Be aware of what you’re doing and why. If everyone decides to put the benefit of the wider community before their immediate short-term desires we at least stand a chance of not making things worse (said the Conservative to the Socialists). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post wilko154 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 At Leicester last night I went for a slash and witnessed almost every single bloke wash their hands. I've never seen so many men take personal hygiene so seriously. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazzap24 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 51 minutes ago, Awol said: No, you should. Everyone should. Then perhaps we might collectively stop living in la-la-land about what is coming at us. I posted about triage on here a few weeks ago. Now COVID 19 patients in Italy with underlying health issues like cancer, diabetes etc are being left to die as medics prioritize those with the best chance of survival. 40% of those cases in Italy currently being ventilated are 64 or under. It’s not only affecting OAPs - though they’re most vulnerable. China trashed its economy to try and stop this disease from swamping the country. That’s a really big deal. What we saw there was one European Capital sized city getting humped. It’s now mushrooming all over Europe. Exponential growth is the thing people are missing imo, this isn’t a linear phenomenon and I don’t think it’s being well explained. If you’re not genuinely concerned about this then you really should be, while doing the little you can to prepare yourself and your family. I really, really hope I’ve got this totally wrong and would appreciate any evidence people can provide that I am. Any at all. I left La La Land days ago, I’m in full agreement with you - it’s going to be genuinely horrific. It was just another bit of despair I didn’t need. But I do agree that it would be helpful if the ‘Calm down, it’s just like the flu’ brigade could see it. A live stream from the hospital in Lombardy might convince a few. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sid4ever Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, wilko154 said: At Leicester last night I went for a slash and witnessed almost every single bloke wash their hands. I've never seen so many men take personal hygiene so seriously. And what song did they sing to make sure it was for 20 seconds? National anthem, happy birthday twice or Frere Jacques? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Awol said: No, you should. Everyone should. Then perhaps we might collectively stop living in la-la-land about what is coming at us. I posted about triage on here a few weeks ago. Now COVID 19 patients in Italy with underlying health issues like cancer, diabetes etc are being left to die as medics prioritize those with the best chance of survival. 40% of those cases in Italy currently being ventilated are 64 or under. It’s not only affecting OAPs - though they’re most vulnerable. China trashed its economy to try and stop this disease from swamping the country. That’s a really big deal. What we saw there was one European Capital sized city getting humped. It’s now mushrooming all over Europe. Exponential growth is the thing people are missing imo, this isn’t a linear phenomenon and I don’t think it’s being well explained. If you’re not genuinely concerned about this then you really should be, while doing the little you can to prepare yourself and your family. I really, really hope I’ve got this totally wrong and would appreciate any evidence people can provide that I am. Any at all. The only thing I think you're either wrong about, or at least probably wrong, is the 'exponential growth' part. The rate of infection won't grow exponentially; not just in a *pedant voice* there's-not-an-infinitely-sized-population way, but because most people only meet the same few other people each day, so transmission will become limited at some point (especially once the lockdowns begin). Otherwise I think you're right, especially that it is on course to overwhelm the healthcare system, and that it will give lots of doctors lots of awful decisions to make about who has a chance to live and who dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I mean seriously who the feck eats bats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 This is gonna wipe us out in next few months isn’t it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The only thing I think you're either wrong about, or at least probably wrong, is the 'exponential growth' part. The rate of infection won't grow exponentially; not just in a *pedant voice* there's-not-an-infinitely-sized-population way, but because most people only meet the same few other people each day, so transmission will become limited at some point (especially once the lockdowns begin). Otherwise I think you're right, especially that it is on course to overwhelm the healthcare system, and that it will give lots of doctors lots of awful decisions to make about who has a chance to live and who dies. Fair enough, but they look pretty similar to me - even if they can’t ultimately extend into infinity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Tayls said: This is gonna wipe us out in next few months isn’t it... No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Tayls said: This is gonna wipe us out in next few months isn’t it... Are you old or infirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: Are you old or infirm? 31 and a massive hypochondriac... but the evidence suggests that actually it doesn’t really matter... Edited March 10, 2020 by Tayls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Awol said: Fair enough, but they look pretty similar to me - even if they can’t ultimately extend into infinity! Definitely exponential - the rates are literally doubling week by week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Lots of things look exponential at early stages, but turn out not to be. Right now, each infected person is meeting essentially 100% uninfected people; that will not continue to be the case. In the UK, quite bizarrely given we appear to be doing barely anything about it, growth has been far from exponential - it has been at roughly 50 people/day for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Read this , only the youngest and fittest with the best chance to survive will be given priority, not 1st come 1st served. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8078483/Its-going-end-death-British-doctor-warns-ICU-bed-shortage-amid-coronavirus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Awol said: No, you should. Everyone should. Then perhaps we might collectively stop living in la-la-land about what is coming at us. I posted about triage on here a few weeks ago. Now COVID 19 patients in Italy with underlying health issues like cancer, diabetes etc are being left to die as medics prioritize those with the best chance of survival. 40% of those cases in Italy currently being ventilated are 64 or under. It’s not only affecting OAPs - though they’re most vulnerable. China trashed its economy to try and stop this disease from swamping the country. That’s a really big deal. What we saw there was one European Capital sized city getting humped. It’s now mushrooming all over Europe. Exponential growth is the thing people are missing imo, this isn’t a linear phenomenon and I don’t think it’s being well explained. If you’re not genuinely concerned about this then you really should be, while doing the little you can to prepare yourself and your family. I really, really hope I’ve got this totally wrong and would appreciate any evidence people can provide that I am. Any at all. Correct. If they follow NHS procedures its not 1st come 1st served, it's who is more likely to survive, and statistically age plays a bif part here, so say ICU and resps are all full , last in 80 year old, and suddenly 60 year old is admitted same condition as 80 year old, 80 year old is unplugged and 60 year old hooked up, 80 year old is left to live or die on their own. Then 50 year old turns up same serious life or death conditions, 60 year old is unhooked and 50 year old is hooked up and now 60 year old is along side the 80 year old fighting for life with no help. And so it continues. Obviously underlying complications also factor, have a history of respiratory problems and are very old, once ICU full you have a big target on your head for vs a new case your age but without a history of breathing problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Lots of things look exponential at early stages, but turn out not to be. Right now, each infected person is meeting essentially 100% uninfected people; that will not continue to be the case. In the UK, quite bizarrely given we appear to be doing barely anything about it, growth has been far from exponential - it has been at roughly 50 people/day for a few days now. Look at the Italy graph when they were in the same situation as us: case-case-case, cluster-cluster-cluster, boom. You’re also assuming fairly direct levels of contact to achieve onward transmission but that doesn’t appear to be the case. It can survive in the air for at least 30 minutes in an enclosed space. It can live on a hard surface for several days. In an urban environment we don’t need to guess what happens, we’ve already seen it. Hence endlessly exhorting is to wash our hands.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam-AVFC Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, Tayls said: 31 and a massive hypochondriac... but the evidence suggests that actually it doesn’t really matter... I think you’ve been misinformed. I read hypochondriacs have a way higher death rate. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 10, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 10, 2020 A Doctor in ENT at Ormskirk Hospital returned from Italy, had no symptoms, asked if he should self-isolate, he was told no and that he should return to work. Guess what happened today? I think the rest of the story writes itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam-AVFC Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Kingman said: Read this , only the youngest and fittest with the best chance to survive will be given priority, not 1st come 1st served. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8078483/Its-going-end-death-British-doctor-warns-ICU-bed-shortage-amid-coronavirus.html I expect they’ll change that to prioritise the elderly as the higher bed turnover rate will give a much better chance to pad the numbers of patients “treated”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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