Generic Virus Thread

[Chindie]

Fully vaccinated is less relevant with the Delta variant.

[blandy]

24 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Fully vaccinated is less relevant with the Delta variant.

I feel it’s more significant from looking at hospitalisation breakdowns. No dose = 0% protection, I dose = 30% protection and 2 doses > 60% protection. 

[StefanAVFC]

24 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Fully vaccinated is less relevant with the Delta variant.

If that's the case, what's the end game here?

Have restrictions indefinitely because our only way out of his doesn't work? 

I think at some point (pretty soon tbh) the choice should sit with the individual and the government should **** off. 

[Genie]

14 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I think at some point (pretty soon tbh) the choice should sit with the individual and the government should **** off. 

IF the Delta variant is a significant threat you can’t just let the public decide what’s ok. 

It’s been proven many times not to work.

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I feel it’s more significant from looking at hospitalisation breakdowns. No dose = 0% protection, I dose = 30% protection and 2 doses > 60% protection. 

I thought 2 doses was > 95% with the delta variant?

The number of deaths from COVID delta variant of people who had both jabs was something like 3% of total deaths which showed that the variant was no more deadly than any other variant.

[sharkyvilla]

2 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Locking down fully vaccinated people when the data shows the vaccine almost completely stops serious illness would be absurdly authoritarian. 

Surely if you allow fully vaccinated people to avoid the lockdown that would rely on some sort of vaccine passport, which you were against as well?

[jackbauer24]

51 minutes ago, Genie said:

IF the Delta variant is a significant threat you can’t just let the public decide what’s ok. 

It’s been proven many times not to work.

The question remains however. If the Delta variant, or any future variant, are less influenced by vaccines then is this life forever?

There HAS to be a discussion at some point about what really needs to happen to end all restrictions for good. Or is this life forever more? There will always be variants and waves but, unless there is some level of accepted risk then it is right for the government to come out and say that they will be controlling your freedoms for the rest of your life.

There will always be reasons for caution because of unknown risks... But how long can you shackle 70m because you're worried of risk? You also can't ignore, even if you are 100% on board with every decision made so far, that there are certain groups who benefit financially and politically from ongoing restrictions. Certain groups will always revel in the limelight and not want it to go, fear creates income.

Preventing freedom because of 'what if' is not a good enough reason.

[darrenm]

1 minute ago, sharkyvilla said:

Surely if you allow fully vaccinated people to avoid the lockdown that would rely on some sort of vaccine passport, which you were against as well?

I think his point is there doesn't need to be a lockdown because the vast majority of the 99% most at risk of dying have been vaccinated so you'll be locking down to protect people already protected. The risk of not locking down is a very small number of deaths in the under 40s, some long COVID cases and those who are older but have chosen not to have the vaccine.

[Genie]

I think “lockdown” is used wrongly now, nobody is being told they can’t leave the house.

We’re not in a lockdown now.

[StefanAVFC]

11 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Surely if you allow fully vaccinated people to avoid the lockdown that would rely on some sort of vaccine passport, which you were against as well?

I was against on the reasonable assumption lockdowns and restrictions wouldn't go on **** forever.

Edited June 12, 2021 by StefanAVFC

[StefanAVFC]

7 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

The question remains however. If the Delta variant, or any future variant, are less influenced by vaccines then is this life forever?

There HAS to be a discussion at some point about what really needs to happen to end all restrictions for good. Or is this life forever more? There will always be variants and waves but, unless there is some level of accepted risk then it is right for the government to come out and say that they will be controlling your freedoms for the rest of your life.

There will always be reasons for caution because of unknown risks... But how long can you shackle 70m because you're worried of risk? You also can't ignore, even if you are 100% on board with every decision made so far, that there are certain groups who benefit financially and politically from ongoing restrictions. Certain groups will always revel in the limelight and not want it to go, fear creates income.

Preventing freedom because of 'what if' is not a good enough reason.

Exactly.

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think “lockdown” is used wrongly now, nobody is being told they can’t leave the house.

We’re not in a lockdown now.

We are still living with restrictions now, and as mentioned in this thread, there couild be further restrictions. Restrictions aren't lockdown, but they're also not normal life.

[Genie]

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

Exactly.

We are still living with restrictions now, and as mentioned in this thread, there couild be further restrictions. Restrictions aren't lockdown, but they're also not normal life.

Restrictions yes, I think in the UK the decision will be to extend the current phase. I don’t think there’s going to be further restrictions added.

Can still go out, pub, shops, restaurants, clubs, sports, work, activities, leisure, see family, meet friends etc etc. With restrictions but not locked down.

[StefanAVFC]

It worries me that people have the attitude of 'we can still do things so it's ok'

It's basically a big ok for the government to do what they want. 

[blandy]

19 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

The question remains however. If the Delta variant, or any future variant, are less influenced by vaccines then is this life forever?

No. The crucial point is where the number of protected people is sufficiently high that the virus can’t spread to any significant degree. The more effective a vaccine is, the lower the percentage of protected people there needs to be. When the vaccine has made the pool of potential victims small enough, the virus has almost nowhere to go and will remain in the background.

if the vaccine means that coming into contact with the virus, for a person, that person is only briefly a bit ill and infectious, or isn’t I’ll and is not very infectious, then the virus doesn’t spread much or often. 
so the country needs to get to somewhere in the region of 80% fully jagged up and we’re good to go. Letting the Indian delta variant in caused this. The necessary percentage figure without it would already have been reached. Government own goal again

[blandy]

36 minutes ago, darrenm said:

I thought 2 doses was > 95% with the delta variant?

The number of deaths from COVID delta variant of people who had both jabs was something like 3% of total deaths which showed that the variant was no more deadly than any other variant.

For hospitalisation I read something around > 60%. For death, yeah better than that. Can’t say it’s gospel, but I saw a thing where someone had broken down the figures. 

[Genie]

8 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

It worries me that people have the attitude of 'we can still do things so it's ok'

It's basically a big ok for the government to do what they want. 

So you think we should open up, and risk having to go backwards later? Mental. There absolutely WILL be an uptick after the final restrictions are lifted. The size of that is the unknown. The higher the baseline the higher the uptick.

Current situation whilst not perfect isn’t too bad either. If we have a bit longer before the final phase because hospitals are starting to fill up, or there is a risk they might so we hold station for a while, then I’m ok with it.

Your anti-government stance is clouding your judgement. It’s not about letting the government get away with doing what they want.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Genie

[sharkyvilla]

They've built in checking for new variants and increases in the R rate all the way along at each relaxing of the lockdown, they would be stupid to completely ignore it now.  The main problem with new variants is it takes time to identify them and then track their effects and it's too early to be complacent and say that everything will be fine if you go to and from other countries regardless of where we and they are in terms of vaccinations.  You can pretty much do whatever you want domestically now anyway.

[blandy]

33 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

It worries me that people have the attitude of 'we can still do things so it's ok'

It's basically a big ok for the government to do what they want. 

Personally, I ignore the government and look at the numbers and try and work out what makes sense and then see if I think what the gov't is doing is right.

So looking at yesterday's figures (which are rising - 52% up over the same day a week ago) there were 7,738 tested positive and 187 people yesterday went into hospital with it.

Now looking back to last time the tests were similar positives and rising was around 26 sept last year. There were (then) 351 people going into hospital  (7969 positive tests).

So what we're seeing is fewer people going into hospital, but the numbers rising. The ratio between this time and last time is around 53%, which is obviously better. However last time the numbers went up to 4300 per day going into hospital (and that was with a lockdown in place). At a 53% ratio the number this time would rise to 2500 people a day going into hospital - that's a similar situation to the start of January and the hospitals can barely cope with that, even when Covid treatment is pretty much all they do.

That's why opening up completely at the moment would be a terrible step. The better step by a mile is to hold off for a bit, get more vaccinated fully, and then open up - just on the maths, not on Government this or that.

The only alternative would be to allow fully protected people (only) to do the full range of stuff, but people seem to be against that and the whole vaccine permit idea.

[fightoffyour]

4 hours ago, Davkaus said:

It comes to something when I agree with Theresa May.

 

Wow absolutely bang on #TeamMay

[fightoffyour]

As many hospitalisations in the uk as cases in Poland and travel is as good as banned, good one (no, not that way around, you can enter Poland freely).