Generic Virus Thread

[Kuwabatake Sanjuro]

Interesting editorial contrast across the Irish Sea, nobody reads the Irish Daily Mail though.

 

[a-k]

9 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Just to make crystal clear the effect in the post above, a thought experiment you have 100 pensioners, 80 of whom are vaccinated:

Delta infects the 20 unvaccinated people and 10 die. Survival rate: 50%

Omicron infects all 100 people. The vaccinated all have minor symptoms, but all 20 unvaccinated die. Survival rate: 80%

Omicron is actually twice as deadly as Delta but looks milder (numbers purely for illustration). This is why some scientists are urging caution about the initial numbers suggesting Omicron is milder.

I don't disagree, but this scenario is also just as likely:

Delta infects 20 people and 10 hospitalized. Hospitalization rate: 50%

Omicron infects 100 people and 30 hospitalized. Hospitalization rate: 30%

Omicron is actually "more mild" than Delta but wreaks more havoc on the public health system because of its more severe transmissibility. This is why some scientists are urging caution about letting Omicron rip through the population.

[chrisp65]

Spectators banned at Welsh sports venues. But not social clubs.

So we’re back in last summer’s farce where 400 of us can go to the football and all go inside the clubhouse and watch the game on the TV as long as we don’t open the curtains and see the 2,500 seat empty stadium outside.

Science.

[El Zen]

9 hours ago, hippo said:

I've quoted a million times that my parents hid in the cellar or dashed down to the air raid shelter in the middle of the night. Whilst planes few overhead dropping explosives on them - night after night.

The pubs shutting a bit early, wearing a mask, getting a jab really doesn't come anywhere near.

Sure. But ‘not WWII’ is setting the bar for normalcy and quality of life rather low. 

We really shouldn’t trivialise the toll living with restrictions - whether they are currently in effect, or if it’s the uncertainty of knowing they can return - has taken on us. 

[Panto_Villan]

10 hours ago, nick76 said:

I am as well but it’s not a massive inconvenience given we are in a pandemic.  I mean Covid is working 24/7 to infect everybody it can, it doesn’t give a shit about all the things you mention.  It’s not something that can just be dismissed.  

Literally a bit of inconvenience of not socialising with people that aren’t close friends or family isn’t a big deal in a pandemic.  Of all the issues in the world this would be sarcastically classed as a “first world issue” and that’s not a dig at you but think about it.  In a pandemic, a new mutated variant that the worst case for first world people is they can’t gather in large groups and can only see their friends and family, have a few jabs and wear a mask occasionally and people are complaining it’s too much of an inconvenience.  People are too spoilt!

Nobody is dismissing the pandemic, but covid has been working 24/7 to infect people since it first burst onto the scene and it will continue to do so forever. This isn’t going away, ever.

If you think only socialising with a small group of people for the rest of our lives is fine to deal with a disease that at present is only killing about 30-40% more people than flu was killing pre-covid (something humanity gave zero shits about), then you’re mad.

As I said, I’m fine with restrictions and people acting sensibly to deal with the Omicron wave. It’s potentially rather dangerous. But your logic implies far more than that; you talk as though we should never return to normality.

I don’t see any case for permanent ongoing restrictions on society as a result of covid, no matter how small an inconvenience they are.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Panto_Villan

[nick76]

14 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

As I said, I’m fine with restrictions and people acting sensibly to deal with the Omicron wave. It’s potentially rather dangerous. But your logic implies far more than that; you talk as though we should never return to normality.

Did I say that? I said more restrictions for the next month or so in my comments over the last few pages….this probably will save us going into lockdown.

I dont think anybody has ever talked about permanent ongoing restrictions.

Edited December 21, 2021 by nick76

[Jareth]

IMHO wearing a mask and getting a timely vaccine = common sense. Not attending a funeral or getting to a loved one in need, when the tories are taking the piss = be more tory (on this occasion). 

[DCJonah]

I wonder if the people who are adamant that there shouldn't be any restrictions have needed to go to A&E recently or needed to call an ambulance. 

It might change their mind when they see the state of the hospitals at the moment. 

 

[CVByrne]

8 hours ago, Kuwabatake Sanjuro said:

Interesting editorial contrast across the Irish Sea, nobody reads the Irish Daily Mail though.

 

 

Ireland is the land of draconian measures. Has harshest lockdowns in Europe. I'm here at the moment, I can't wait to get back to London on Thursday

[CVByrne]

22 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I wonder if the people who are adamant that there shouldn't be any restrictions have needed to go to A&E recently or needed to call an ambulance. 

It might change their mind when they see the state of the hospitals at the moment. 

 

 

With people in Hospital with Covid a fraction of the previous peak it's hardly under massive pressure yet. Issue is more staff out atm with Covid who will be back soon.

The data from London is showing no wave of hospitalisations which is so far very good news about Omicron. I'd say by Fri we'll know if Omicron is the best news we've had since the Vaccines. Estimates from South Africa saying it's up 30 times less severe. That would be amazing news if the data from London backs that up.

The Sage modelling is clearly garbage because of the parameters they have used about severity and speed of spread. Modelling hospital admissions based on a 50% less severe disease with Omicron as the "best case". Why don't the use modelling for multiple down to 30x less severe and have that presented as the best case. Then see how the London data fits the different projections. 

So far from London data we've seen 2 things emerge. 1) Cases peaking quickly, 2) No spike in hospital admissions, just slow drift upwards.

If we see this data hold true for next 4 days then we know 1) The estimation of the number of cases we will see was again miles off. 2) The severity estimations are in line with South African data.

The Government are doing the right thing. They need to see this London data on hospital admissions. They were given projections on Monday 13th from Sage and they can see how the real data fits those projections before making a decision. 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by CVByrne

[Panto_Villan]

32 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Did I say that? I said more restrictions for the next month or so in my comments over the last few pages….this probably will save us going into lockdown.

I dont think anybody has ever talked about permanent ongoing restrictions.

Not sure what your views are.

My post said that large numbers of people voluntarily cutting themselves off from society was fine to deal with a wave of Omicron but isn’t something you can expect people to do long term. You replied saying it’s actually only a minor inconvenience, which implies to me you disagree with me and that the restrictions need to outlast this Omicron wave.

[CVByrne]

I think we're at the stage where government guidance instead of laws restricting people is what is needed. People who are 10 days after their booster jab who are in their 30s is a different situation to someone who is unvaccinated in their 60s. Advice on minimal contacts until 7 to 10 days after your booster is good advice. Also on regular testing before meeting others. We need to be repeating this type of advice and trusting the majority of people will exercise good judgement. 

Creating laws that shut businesses, then getting the country in even more debt to pay these companies and staff to not work is the type of intervention that should be in the past now. 

[tinker]

So the data from SA and London so far tells us..... Omicron spreads like wildfire but hospital admissions are still relatively low, looks like it's COVID's swan song and thank god for that.

[nick76]

6 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Not sure what your views are.

It’s literally written in the last few pages.  If you are just reading isolated comments then you’ll get only a response to a previous comment, if you read the last page or two you’ll have context and my view.

8 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

My post said that large numbers of people voluntarily cutting themselves off from society was fine to deal with a wave of Omicron but isn’t something you can expect people to do long term.

I agree

8 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

You replied saying it’s actually only a minor inconvenience, which implies to me you disagree with me and that the restrictions need to outlast this Omicron wave.

See this is where context of the last few pages should give you context that I agree with you.

I’m saying during the pandemic the current restrictions whether mandated or self imposed are a minor inconvenience…a few more restrictions for the next month or so, or the unknown part of Omicron info I would support to hopefully hold off any lockdown.  I’ve never commented or inferred any long term things.

My issue is that just because people are fed up of it doesn’t mean we can ignore or forget about it.  People complaining about short term inconveniences during a pandemic are spoilt in the modern world was my point.

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, tinker said:

So the data from SA and London so far tells us..... Omicron spreads like wildfire but hospital admissions are still relatively low, looks like it's COVID's swan song and thank god for that.

I think that is something we can all agree would be a great outcome.  I think you are shooting the gun with the data though.  I pray it is correct though.

[Mic09]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

Spectators banned at Welsh sports venues. But not social clubs.

So we’re back in last summer’s farce where 400 of us can go to the football and all go inside the clubhouse and watch the game on the TV as long as we don’t open the curtains and see the 2,500 seat empty stadium outside.

Science.

That's one of my biggest complaints about the governments action (uk and worldwide).

Everyone talks about 'science' yet there is little common sense and I would be very much interested to see just what science they use to make such decisions.

Who (and based on what) thinks that these are good decisions?!

[CVByrne]

2 minutes ago, tinker said:

So the data from SA and London so far tells us..... Omicron spreads like wildfire but hospital admissions are still relatively low, looks like it's COVID's swan song and thank god for that.

So far yes, cases jumped from around 9-10k to around 25k and are dropping slightly from that peak. So even if the case to hospitalisation rate is the same as Delta we'll see a jump to 500-600 admissions per day for later this week which will drop in line with infections drop. This would mean a peak of patients in hospital with Covid at approx 30-50% of last Jan peak. So the infections data appearing to have peaked on its own is a big development.

Then we have the potential for milder cases. IF we see hospital admissions not spike up to 500-600 per day later this week then Omicron is milder (for whatever reason, vaccines, mutations). This will then mean Omicron wave is great news for us in this Pandemic. 

[Mic09]

19 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m saying during the pandemic the current restrictions whether mandated or self imposed are a minor inconvenience…a few more restrictions for the next month or so, or the unknown part of Omicron info I would support to hopefully hold off any lockdown.  I’ve never commented or inferred any long term things.

My issue is that just because people are fed up of it doesn’t mean we can ignore or forget about it.  People complaining about short term inconveniences during a pandemic are spoilt in the modern world was my point.

I sympathize with your point of view, even though I disagree for most part.

But I think that 'minor inconvenience' is in the eye of the beholder.

It's not a minor inconvenience for someone running a pub and cancelling christmas parties. It's not a minor inconvenience for someone who works in hospitality, is 22, and moved half way across the country to secure that job and got made redundant (my brother was one of those cases).

It's also not a minor inconvenience for people who have family abroad - it's not just drunk teenagers going to Magaluf that are travelling, it's families who are worried about seeing relatives in France or other countries because all of a sudden a border might shut.

Masks/getting vaxxed isn't a biggie (for most people). But I wouldn't go as far as saying the current status quo is a minor inconvenience for a minimum wage person pouring beers at half time at Villa Park.

There are many stories out there who have suffered not only because of the virus, but of the implications it has on day to day living. 

Especially as the vast majority is now well protected from Covid via vaccine, but the virus doesn't seem to be going away. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Mic09

[CVByrne]

8 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

That's one of my biggest complaints about the governments action (uk and worldwide).

Everyone talks about 'science' yet there is little common sense and I would be very much interested to see just what science they use to make such decisions.

Who (and based on what) thinks that these are good decisions?!

When people say "science" what they mean is modelling. Like in economics, forecasts of what "could" happen is useful for making decisions. The issue we have at the moment is the modelling on the spread of covid is much harder now than it was before we had the level of immunity we have now. You then add in a variant which can escape vaccinations but causes a milder disease and it's very difficult to forecast.

Like in summer when the "unlocking wave" forecast cases to hit 200k per day and they were near 20k per day on the date they estimated. The spread of the wave of infections now is very different. So a doubling rate of say 2 days for Omicron held true for only a week maybe before dropping to 0 in London. Knowing those parameters in advance for you to model is impossible. So the "science" was very very helpful in the unvaccinated waves ad modelling was accurate.

The issue now is the parameters have changed so much the modelling is next to useless until we have data to back fit the models with. That's what Government are doing now, seeing if any of the modelling predictions fit the data. (so far with London data it's better than any of the best case scenarios from Sage). 

[Lichfield Dean]

I've seen some graphs from a week ago that suggested we weren't far enough into this wave yet to know anything about deaths that may be caused by Omicron. It's hard to judge from this graph below but it refers to the 13th December as not yet being within the 'lag' period. I wonder if we now are?