Generic Virus Thread

[chrisp65]

5 minutes ago, villakram said:

Do they? For whom?

Is it pregnant ladies who are being affected?

Leukemia survivers?

20-25yr old bald men?

Menopausal women?

65+ yr olds.

The covid risk profile for each of these groups is dramatically different. Perhaps the AZ drug risk profile has a spike somewhere. Always a possibility given the nature of the clinical trials, and the data suggests this might be so. However, it is currently unknown. Hence the caution.

The pharma companies got indemnified for vaccine related side effects, remember.

It would be a perfectly sensible caution if compared with no deaths.

If I invented a new thing, a new food source, and 4 people from 17 million dies, then we should stop and investigate.

But if I invented something that saved 100 lives per day, and there was an unproven chance that it killed 4 people a day, then surely we have to weigh up if stopping that thing is the correct action?

Potentially, you are allowing 96 to 100 people to die, in case the product killed 4. 

I’m not saying abandon caution, I’m just suggesting finding 4 people strangled by seat belts shouldn’t instantly result in stopping the use of seat belts.

 

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, villakram said:

Maybe, it'll turn out to be a manufacturing issue and batches that got divided up in the scramble need to be tracked and tested.

I really doubt that.

I think they’d rather say it causes blood clots in some people as admitting they don’t have good quality control will be much worse.
 

I really don’t think they have quality control issues anyway. It’s just someone putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5... and then a load of other people having a knee jerk reaction.

[villakram]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It would be a perfectly sensible caution if compared with no deaths.

If I invented a new thing, a new food source, and 4 people from 17 million dies, then we should stop and investigate.

But if I invented something that saved 100 lives per day, and there was an unproven chance that it killed 4 people a day, then surely we have to weigh up if stopping that thing is the correct action?

Potentially, you are allowing 96 to 100 people to die, in case the product killed 4. 

I’m not saying abandon caution, I’m just suggesting finding 4 people strangled by seat belts shouldn’t instantly result in stopping the use of seat belts.

 

Right, but what if these people were disemboweled. That's a little harder to understand.

 

 

 

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I’m not saying abandon caution, I’m just suggesting finding 4 people strangled by seat belts shouldn’t instantly result in stopping the use of seat belts.

That’s a great example.

I’ve seen and heard stories in the past “if I was wearing my seatbelt I’d have been crushed”. 
Doesn’t mean seatbelts are dangerous.

[LondonLax]

16 minutes ago, villakram said:

Do they? For whom?

Is it pregnant ladies who are being affected?

Leukemia survivers?

20-25yr old bald men?

Menopausal women?

65+ yr olds.

The covid risk profile for each of these groups is dramatically different. Perhaps the AZ drug risk profile has a spike somewhere. Always a possibility given the nature of the clinical trials, and the data suggests this might be so. However, it is currently unknown. Hence the caution.

The pharma companies got indemnified for vaccine related side effects, remember.

They did in the US and U.K. but the EU didn’t agree to that. 

[mjmooney]

22 minutes ago, blandy said:

He's the ideal person to hold a mirror up to the continental efforts.

Was du dort getan hast, Ich sehe. 

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, villakram said:

Right, but what if these people were disemboweled. That's a little harder to understand.

 

 

 

I can’t help feeling we’re straying in to fantasy, so I’ll counter that with, what if the other 96 experienced a mild orgasm. Would you deny them that?

[sidcow]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56398877

Quote

Reaction is continuing to come in to countries such as France and Germany halting their roll-out of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine.

Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health at the University of Southampton, says the decision is "baffling".

"The data we have suggests that numbers of adverse events related to blood clots are the same (and possibly, in fact lower) in vaccinated groups compared to unvaccinated populations," he says.

"The UK MHRA [Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency], WHO [World Health Organization] and also the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis have recommended continuing the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine roll out.

“Halting a vaccine roll-out during a pandemic has consequences. This results in delays in protecting people, and the potential for increased vaccine hesitancy, as a result of people who have seen the headlines and understandably become concerned.

"There are no signs yet of any data that really justify these decisions.”

 

[KenjiOgiwara]

44 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

The question should really be what are the chances of dying of covid or blood clotting without the vaccine vs having had the vaccine.

Blod clots are relatively normal. Even brain hemos are fairly normal in young ages. Athletes have them in abundance. Shit I've had one. I think what sets this apart from what you can normally expect is that platelet count. The specialist from the leading hospital in Norway said it was very rare, which I think it the medical world actually means something.

Unfortunately it's also why treatment becomes difficult and why people are dying cause if I've understood it correctly (and since I'm a former patient I really should know this, but I don't), the platelets is what helps your blood create clots and coagulation when you have a bleeding. So if you have a brain hemorrage and you got this problem, you aren't able to fix yourself like you normally would. I'm guessing it would be a bit like giving a brain hemo patient a blood thinner (like you would against blod clots). Anyway, feel free to correct my ignorance, but I think that is just about right.

I think what's important now is just to figure out what's actually causing it. Because if it isn't the vaccine and it's a systematic error some where else, well it's arguably even more important to find out then. 

I suspect at this point all they can do is collect data from all over Europe and do the elimination method. Apparently there's an EU meeting tonight, so we'll see. I just hope it doesn't evolve to some Brexit blame game bullshit, cause that gives us nothing. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by KenjiOgiwara

[Seat68]

 

[KenjiOgiwara]

52 minutes ago, Genie said:

I really doubt that.

Why out of interest? What do you think is a more likely explanation than that, when you got a bunch of nurses just vaccinated in two different (neighbouring) countries, most likely from the same batch, all young and healthy, and all with the same rare blood anomaly, all getting sick within the same week? 

What's more likely here? I'm really open for suggestions here cause I'm out of ideas. I'm not saying IT IS the vaccine, but I find it bizarre not to state it's likely. Isn't deductive reasoning kind of how you develop initial hypothesis?

[darrenm]

16 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Blod clots are relatively normal. Even brain hemos are fairly normal in young ages. Athletes have them in abundance. Shit I've had one. I think what sets this apart from what you can normally expect is that platelet count. The specialist from the leading hospital in Norway said it was very rare, which I think it the medical world actually means something.

Unfortunately it's also why treatment becomes difficult and why people are dying cause if I've understood it correctly (and since I'm a former patient I really should know this, but I don't), the platelets is what helps your blood create clots and coagulation when you have a bleeding. So if you have a brain hemorrage and you got this problem, you aren't able to fix yourself like you normally would. I'm guessing it would be a bit like giving a brain hemo patient a blood thinner (like you would against blod clots). Anyway, feel free to correct my ignorance, but I think that is just about right.

I think what's important now is just to figure out what's actually causing it. Because if it isn't the vaccine and it's a systematic error some where else, well it's arguably even more important to find out then. 

I suspect at this point all they can do is collect data from all over Europe and do the elimination method. Apparently there's an EU meeting tonight, so we'll see. I just hope it doesn't evolve to some Brexit blame game bullshit, cause that gives us nothing. 

Just asked my haematologist wife and apparently you'd expect lots of variances of platelet count anyway. People have lots of different underlying conditions which would cause too high or low platelets so it would seem to be unrelated. I didn't really understand much of what she said but the word "thrombiotic" kept coming up.

[KenjiOgiwara]

Think Thrombolite or whatever is just another fancy word for platelet. I really don't know mate. I just heard what that specialist from the hospital said and he said this was beyond normal variations and anything you'd expect from underlying diseases.

[Enda]

Lads, you’re basing your calculations on the wrong outcome. Clean statistical tests are not what governments are thinking about. What matters is beliefs.

Your 1 in 10,000 statistic doesn’t matter if John Public believes the vaccine is going to give him blood clots and brain hemorrhages. By stalling for a week and saying “Yes, we checked, and have concluded AZ is fine” the government might well convince John that AZ is safe, moreso than if they’d just plowed on regardless. It’s expectations management, innit?

[KenjiOgiwara]

19 minutes ago, Enda said:

Lads, you’re basing your calculations on the wrong outcome. Clean statistical tests are not what governments are thinking about.

I actually think the logical **** up when it comes to statistics here is when people drag in vaccination done in the UK and other countries that aren't affected. If the problem is batches and what's hit hospital in Norway and Denmark are the problem, then your overall statistics means dick. Then we're back to idiots saying you're less likely to die in a car accident than being killed by a shark. Well, that **** changes once you go swimming outside Cape Town doesn't it.

Edited March 15, 2021 by KenjiOgiwara

[Jareth]

1 hour ago, villakram said:

The covid risk profile for each of these groups is dramatically different. Perhaps the AZ drug risk profile has a spike somewhere. Always a possibility given the nature of the clinical trials, and the data suggests this might be so. However, it is currently unknown. Hence the caution.

Are the UK and Canada less cautious and more reckless than these countries suspending it? I'd love to bash the government but on this I think they have it right. When the time comes for the vaccine to resume use everywhere the damage will have been done - and I suspect for nothing more than crap decision making, or political sabotage. Just IMHO!

[Genie]

29 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Why out of interest? What do you think is a more likely explanation than that, when you got a bunch of nurses just vaccinated in two different (neighbouring) countries, most likely from the same batch, all young and healthy, and all with the same rare blood anomaly, all getting sick within the same week? 

What's more likely here? I'm really open for suggestions here cause I'm out of ideas. I'm not saying IT IS the vaccine, but I find it bizarre not to state it's likely. Isn't deductive reasoning kind of how you develop initial hypothesis?

When was the last time you heard of a bad batch of medicine killing people?

Then you have the EU, the WHO, the MRHA, the manufacturer and everyone else who has looked into it saying it isn’t causing blood clots.

Of course, it’s extremely unlikely.

I’d love to know the reason why 3 nurses all had a similar illness, maybe they all had some dodgy gear at the weekend. It’s more likely. 

If it is just 3 nurses, and nobody in the general public it makes it even less likely to be the batch unless the batch was only about 7ml. 

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by Genie

[KenjiOgiwara]

7 minutes ago, Genie said:

When was the last time you heard of a bad batch of medicine killing people?

Can't recall.

Then again I've never experienced a pandemic like this, or a swedish vaccine. So who knows. 

I do remember huge side effects from the pigflue vaccine. 

Edited March 15, 2021 by KenjiOgiwara

[Genie]

1 minute ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Can't recall.

Then again I've never experienced a pandemic like this, or a swedish vaccine. So who knows. 

I do remember huge side effects from the pigflue vaccine. 

As so many people are now vaccinated any illness out of the blue, like a blood clot, heart attack or stroke could get linked to it.

”well I hadn’t had a heart attack before so it must be the vaccine”

[Mic09]

I wonder, and I haven't read into this yet, if this could be a political move linked with a limited number of vaccines in the EU.

"We haven't vaccineted many people? Well, it's not our fault, it's that horrible AZ that's the reason. Look, it even gives people blood clots!"