Dean Smith

[Okonokos]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

But 17 games in the championship can not be used to determine whether a Smith side can defend in the championship. 

Instead we must look at our defence in the strongest league in the world.  

If that isn’t enough then we must also look at Sheffield United and Wolves.
 

The fact we are not as good as them will determine whether we are good enough for automatic promotion or not. 

It's not hard is it? I've provided actual proof that a hastily assembled Smith Villa side CAN defend well in the Championship and produce automatic promotion contender form over the course of nearly half a season. But that's not good enough evidence and instead we must judge it on the season in a much harder league instead!

[Villarocker]

Nobody can say that we have been defensively solid as a team so far this season. However, I think Smith has tried to make it more solid by changing tactics, formations and personnel from time to time. 

Comparing us defensively this season to last season isn't fair as the gulf in class is miles apart generally. Smith proved he could get us solid at the back last season once he could actually brjng in some defenders and rest Chester who was knackered. 

This season has been tougher but, I am not so sure it is as clear cut as some are suggesting. Firstly, we have had Mings as the only defender from the back-end of last season - Heaton/Reina, Targett, Guilbert and Konsa/Engels are all new not only to the club but some also to the league/country.

Smith and Co have had to try to gel them together and I'm afraid that you cannot just expect that to fall in place when week in - week out - they are up against top class players. 

People mention Sheff Utd but they had continuity. They are a unit of players that were familiar to each other and the system they play in way before they entered the Premier League so it was easier for them. Throw four new players into that defence and see if it's as solid. They also aren't the first to go up and have an impressive first season. Others have done it too but been found out the following season and I wouldn't be surprised if Sheff Utd follow the same plight next season. 

Overall, Smith has done a good job. He's come to his club and taken us up via the play-offs whilst creating a new club record for consecutive wins. Then, in his first season in the top league in the world he's had to completely rebuild a team, lose his number one striker and goalkeeper to injury as well as McGinn and Mings at times. He's also got his Captain and star player being touted all over the place. Meanwhile, he took the club to a cup final where they didn't hide and gave a decent account of themselves. We've reached 28 games and a game-in-hand win from being out of the relegation places. 

It's not that bad really. 

[Okonokos]

13 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Nobody can say that we have been defensively solid as a team so far this season. However, I think Smith has tried to make it more solid by changing tactics, formations and personnel from time to time. 

Comparing us defensively this season to last season isn't fair as the gulf in class is miles apart generally. Smith proved he could get us solid at the back last season once he could actually brjng in some defenders and rest Chester who was knackered. 

This season has been tougher but, I am not so sure it is as clear cut as some are suggesting. Firstly, we have had Mings as the only defender from the back-end of last season - Heaton/Reina, Targett, Guilbert and Konsa/Engels are all new not only to the club but some also to the league/country.

Smith and Co have had to try to gel them together and I'm afraid that you cannot just expect that to fall in place when week in - week out - they are up against top class players. 

People mention Sheff Utd but they had continuity. They are a unit of players that were familiar to each other and the system they play in way before they entered the Premier League so it was easier for them. Throw four new players into that defence and see if it's as solid. They also aren't the first to go up and have an impressive first season. Others have done it too but been found out the following season and I wouldn't be surprised if Sheff Utd follow the same plight next season. 

Overall, Smith has done a good job. He's come to his club and taken us up via the play-offs whilst creating a new club record for consecutive wins. Then, in his first season in the top league in the world he's had to completely rebuild a team, lose his number one striker and goalkeeper to injury as well as McGinn and Mings at times. He's also got his Captain and star player being touted all over the place. Meanwhile, he took the club to a cup final where they didn't hide and gave a decent account of themselves. We've reached 28 games and a game-in-hand win from being out of the relegation places. 

It's not that bad really. 

Good post.

Also, about the bit in bold. I'm convinced that if possible we would have signed Tuanzebe last summer, either permanently or on loan. I think Smith would have wanted to keep that defensive partnership of last season together but unfortunately there was no way Manure were going to sell or even loan him out again (Same could be said for Abraham). So he had to look elsewhere. Which is such a shame because after watching the replay of the game today, it reminded me what a cracking centre half Tuanzebe is.

If things had been different our defence might have had a bit more continuity from last season and may have been more solid.

[VillaChris]

With regards next season to me defence is all about whether Mings would stay if we went down or not.

However much he is or isn't rated in premier league by people on here, what's without doubt is he was on total cruise control for vast majority of games last season after he came in.

The problem will be though that Euros is delayed and he'll obviously want to stay part of that squad and that's not a given if he's not in the premier league.

Still if he stays around that will be a huge boost. I also think Heaton would stay given his injury so that's two England internationals in a back 5. Add in Konsa I'm sure would look much more convincing back in the championship (he was a regular in this miles better Brentford defence after Smith left wasn't he Villalad....) and that's quite a decent base to build on.

Even though I don't rate him a huge amount in premier league Targett would be alright in the championship aswell especially going forward (certainly we'd be nowhere near recouping what we paid for him so he'd stay).

SOmething would have to go very wrong for us to be conceding shed loads of goals if all those stayed but then again championship is just one of those leagues where endless high scoring games happen due to the random nature of it.

Can't see the West Brom backline impresses me. They would go straight back down if they didn't sign a decent CB which has cost Norwich big time.

[sir_gary_cahill]

38 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

With regards next season to me defence is all about whether Mings would stay if we went down or not.

However much he is or isn't rated in premier league by people on here, what's without doubt is he was on total cruise control for vast majority of games last season after he came in.

The problem will be though that Euros is delayed and he'll obviously want to stay part of that squad and that's not a given if he's not in the premier league.

Still if he stays around that will be a huge boost. I also think Heaton would stay given his injury so that's two England internationals in a back 5. Add in Konsa I'm sure would look much more convincing back in the championship (he was a regular in this miles better Brentford defence after Smith left wasn't he Villalad....) and that's quite a decent base to build on.

Even though I don't rate him a huge amount in premier league Targett would be alright in the championship aswell especially going forward (certainly we'd be nowhere near recouping what we paid for him so he'd stay).

SOmething would have to go very wrong for us to be conceding shed loads of goals if all those stayed but then again championship is just one of those leagues where endless high scoring games happen due to the random nature of it.

Can't see the West Brom backline impresses me. They would go straight back down if they didn't sign a decent CB which has cost Norwich big time.

I think Hegazi is an excellent player from what I’ve seen of him, what do you think of him?

[KentVillan]

The same arguments have been made and refuted over and over again over 100s of pages of this thread. Some of them are just opinions, but a few are just factually wrong, and it's frustrating to see them trotted out as if they're gospel.

Defensive football wins the Championship: I'd say 4 sides in the last 5 seasons (Norwich, Wolves, Bournemouth, Watford) have finished top 2 largely on the strength of their attacking football. There's no iron law that says you only go up by following the Warnock playbook.

Smith's stats are bad when I need them to be, inconclusive when I don't: It's hypocritical to say Smith's record speaks for itself and then deny significant parts of that record because "small sample" or "Grealish" or whatever other excuse.

We'll be garbage without Grealish: don't get me wrong, Jack leaving Villa will be a very sad day. He's one of the best players of his generation. But the logical fallacy is the idea that Villa without Grealish will be the 2019/20 squad minus Grealish. That's clearly untrue - we would reinvest that money. In Championship terms it would get us some real quality players across the park. So when people keep banging on about how we played when Grealish was injured last season, what is the relevance?

[Villarocker]

Smith would get Villa back in the Premier League if we went down, I'm confident of that. 

The secret is Villatalk. Jack Grealish is only Kevan Grealish's brother, so only linked to a Villatalker. If we go back down we should sign AVFC_PRIDEOFBRUM and have a real Villatalker playing for us. I imagine he'd he great for Villa in the Championship. 

[TRO]

17 hours ago, Okonokos said:

I wouldn't call that phenomenal offensive form. Norwich on 39 is closer to phenomenal. I'd say ours was very good but we were actually more impressive defensively. We looked so solid, had grit and determination to see games out. We didn't hammer everyone 5-0 at all.

Perhaps, I could have used a more modest word, like significant but you get the jest of it......So where did that impressive defensive form disappear too?

Also the offensive form was much better than the previous 10 games where we only won one, but you didn't include that, sequence.

• From the start of January to the end of February we won 1 game in those 10.....we scored 10 goals with 18 against.
• From March to April 22nd we won 10 games on the trot ....23 goals for and 6 against......an average of 2.3 goals per game scored, is pretty impressive in my book, and an equally dramaitic shift, from the previous 10 games.

The defensive statistics improved encouragingly granted, but the offensive stats did too at a marginally better rate....and may have had an impact too...of defending from the front.

My point is.....Its hard to say what actually was responsible for the dramatic improvement in those defensive stats......but one thing is clear, when you have stats like that, it makes a significant aid to winning games as it proves.

That is the overall point most of us are all trying to make.

 

 

[Zatman]

It disappeared for a numbrr of reasons 1. being we had to buy a new defence again because of the previous manager mistakes

and 2. Which is as important and is continually gone unnoticed is the last game of last season we played against strikers Waghorn and Marriott. 1st games of this season was Harry Kane then Callum Wilson

[sir_gary_cahill]

22 minutes ago, Zatman said:

It disappeared for a numbrr of reasons 1. being we had to buy a new defence again because of the previous manager mistakes

and 2. Which is as important and is continually gone unnoticed is the last game of last season we played against strikers Waghorn and Marriott. 1st games of this season was Harry Kane then Callum Wilson

I’ve thought this for a long time, I don’t know if you’ll agree but it seems whoever we buy as players, appoint as manager or have as owners, nothing changes on the pitch. It’s been that way for a decade now, I don’t see it changing any time soon, regardless of what Purslow says to the press

[Okonokos]

33 minutes ago, TRO said:

Perhaps, I could have used a more modest word, like significant but you get the jest of it......So where did that impressive defensive form disappear too?

Also the offensive form was much better than the previous 10 games where we only won one, but you didn't include that, sequence.

• From the start of January to the end of February we won 1 game in those 10.....we scored 10 goals with 18 against.
• From March to April 22nd we won 10 games on the trot ....23 goals for and 6 against......an average of 2.3 goals per game scored, is pretty impressive in my book, and an equally dramaitic shift, from the previous 10 games.

The defensive statistics improved encouragingly granted, but the offensive stats did too at a marginally better rate....and may have had an impact too...of defending from the front.

My point is.....Its hard to say what actually was responsible for the dramatic improvement in those defensive stats......but one thing is clear, when you have stats like that, it makes a significant aid to winning games as it proves.

That is the overall point most of us are all trying to make.

 

 

The defensive form disappeared because we got promoted to one of the hardest leagues in the world. It's a massive, massive step up. Also, because we had an almost entirely new defence and goalkeeper, some who had never played in this country before. It would have been absolutely amazing if that defensive form had continued into this season. It would have been almost unrealistic to expect it to have continued.

I didn't include before the start of our 10 game winning run because I was responding to you saying:

Quote

The unprecedented run of phenomenal offensive form during the 10 game winning run, is probably the main statistic to influence the figures they selected

Your point wasn't referencing the results before that. I just wanted to make the point that our winning run was not down to phenomenal offensive play. We weren't winning games 5-4. We were winning games 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 etc. We were incredibly solid and compact right down the spine of the team. I vividly remember watching us week after week during that 10 game spell. Sometimes we didn't play that well, but we had so much steel, so much fight and desire in us. So much so that I couldn't see us losing games at all. It was a joy to watch. Mings in particular looked like a fully grown man defending against 12 year olds. It was absolutely unrecognisable from the team earlier on in the season.

The only difference between the team earlier in the season and the solid defence towards the end was the fact that Smith had January to get some of his own players in. He used that chance perfectly and he turned us from the third worst defence to the joint second best. Whether you like Smith or not, that is a fact.

This all goes back to the original point by  villalad21  that I was responding to when he said: 

20 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Maybe through play offs again.

Smith's teams are far too open to achieve automatic promotion.

He was saying that even though we got promoted under Smith, the football we played was too open. However, the stats clearly say that we weren't too open at all. In fact, it was the opposite. That is the only point I was making. Nothing to do with this season, which is a totally difference kettle of fish. I was just purely saying that the evidence is there that Smith can get a team promoted playing defensively solid, so if given the chance to again, I believe he can. And I really hope if we do find ourselves in that position, we use the Sean Dyche at Burnley model and give him the opportunity to learn from this season and come back stronger.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Okonokos

[TRO]

20 hours ago, Villarocker said:

Nobody can say that we have been defensively solid as a team so far this season. However, I think Smith has tried to make it more solid by changing tactics, formations and personnel from time to time. 

Comparing us defensively this season to last season isn't fair as the gulf in class is miles apart generally. Smith proved he could get us solid at the back last season once he could actually brjng in some defenders and rest Chester who was knackered. 

This season has been tougher but, I am not so sure it is as clear cut as some are suggesting. Firstly, we have had Mings as the only defender from the back-end of last season - Heaton/Reina, Targett, Guilbert and Konsa/Engels are all new not only to the club but some also to the league/country.

Smith and Co have had to try to gel them together and I'm afraid that you cannot just expect that to fall in place when week in - week out - they are up against top class players. 

People mention Sheff Utd but they had continuity. They are a unit of players that were familiar to each other and the system they play in way before they entered the Premier League so it was easier for them. Throw four new players into that defence and see if it's as solid. They also aren't the first to go up and have an impressive first season. Others have done it too but been found out the following season and I wouldn't be surprised if Sheff Utd follow the same plight next season. 

Overall, Smith has done a good job. He's come to his club and taken us up via the play-offs whilst creating a new club record for consecutive wins. Then, in his first season in the top league in the world he's had to completely rebuild a team, lose his number one striker and goalkeeper to injury as well as McGinn and Mings at times. He's also got his Captain and star player being touted all over the place. Meanwhile, he took the club to a cup final where they didn't hide and gave a decent account of themselves. We've reached 28 games and a game-in-hand win from being out of the relegation places. 

It's not that bad really. 

I think most of us want to believe all that....Including me.

I am not trying to dismiss it by any stretch of the imagination....but much is "what if"

The gelling is a reasonable call, but what if it turns out it has made no difference.......what if Sheff Utd still carry on next season being tough and durable.

We can only comment with surity, what is happening now.....we can all produce stats to further our case and it depends in what context they are interpreted....most will present them to attempt to cement their own argument or stance, that makes sense.

If you study Smith and Bruce, one likes to attack  and one likes to defend, now I know both do a little bit of the other too....but very basically, thats it.

The truth is you have to do both well, to be a good side....winning football is the holy grail and to do that a team has to know when to attack and when to defend during a game and they have to be competent at both, whether we are in the Championship or the Premier League, it applies.

I have been watching us all season at home and some of the errors have been school boy, really bad errors....you can't record that in a stat.....There have been some good things too, Jack has come on a bundle as I expected.

Personally, I am still dubious of our ability to defend under Dean....and I am unsure if that will change.

No one wants "park the bus" football.....but we do want a team that can hold a lead away from home particularly and secure a positive result.

Fans will have their own opinion on the Manager, sure 18 months is still a bit soon, but imo, in order for him to stay in his job, he needs to demonstate an ability to get the team to hold on to a lead.

Edited May 9, 2020 by TRO

[TRO]

4 hours ago, Okonokos said:

The defensive form disappeared because we got promoted to one of the hardest leagues in the world. It's a massive, massive step up. Also, because we had an almost entirely new defence and goalkeeper, some who had never played in this country before. It would have been absolutely amazing if that defensive form had continued into this season. It would have been almost unrealistic to expect it to have continued.

I didn't include before the start of our 10 game winning run because I was responding to you saying:

Your point wasn't referencing the results before that. I just wanted to make the point that our winning run was not down to phenomenal offensive play. We weren't winning games 5-4. We were winning games 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 etc. We were incredibly solid and compact right down the spine of the team. I vividly remember watching us week after week during that 10 game spell. Sometimes we didn't play that well, but we had so much steel, so much fight and desire in us. So much so that I couldn't see us losing games at all. It was a joy to watch. Mings in particular looked like a fully grown man defending against 12 year olds. It was absolutely unrecognisable from the team earlier on in the season.

The only difference between the team earlier in the season and the solid defence towards the end was the fact that Smith had January to get some of his own players in. He used that chance perfectly and he turned us from the third worst defence to the joint second best. Whether you like Smith or not, that is a fact.

This all goes back to the original point by  villalad21  that I was responding to when he said: 

He was saying that even though we got promoted under Smith, the football we played was too open. However, the stats clearly say that we weren't too open at all. In fact, it was the opposite. That is the only point I was making. Nothing to do with this season, which is a totally difference kettle of fish. I was just purely saying that the evidence is there that Smith can get a team promoted playing defensively solid, so if given the chance to again, I believe he can. And I really hope if we do find ourselves in that position, we use the Sean Dyche at Burnley model and give him the opportunity to learn from this season and come back stronger.

Look much of what you say, I don't disagree with....but that opening paragraph fills me with doubt, sorry.....That 10 game winning run was great and as much as Mings made a big difference, I think Tammy did too, with his hold up play.

Let me try and summarise my stance.

• I don't dislike Dean Smith or have an axe to grind with him.....I hope he makes my doubts and suspicions unfounded...I want him to be successful, because the spectacle of his football at times is exciting.
• Not sure If I think he has the credentials to make a significant impact in the Prem.....but will be delighted if he does.
• I don't see the point of a debate on Offensive v Defensive Football.....you need both....its like Night needs Day.
• My point has always been this season, that we do not show a defensive capability in turning a lead in to a win.....that is borne out of more than just the back four.
• I don't want a " park the bus " Manager......but I equally get frustrated with a team that tosses away an advantage at the drop of a hat.
• I want winning football and the style of play that lends itself to that mantra.

Dean will have more time given to him, I hope he uses it wisely and proves doubters like me wrong.

Edited May 9, 2020 by TRO

[VillaChris]

13 hours ago, sir_gary_cahill said:

I think Hegazi is an excellent player from what I’ve seen of him, what do you think of him?

Yeah he's alright.

Personally as a plan b for Cahill I'd have gone for Craig Dawson last summer. Moved to Watford for about 6m last summer. Can play CB or right back, big presence in both boxes and can chip in with a few goals as he did in the play offs last season.

He hasn't played a huge amount for Watford this season so might actually be available in next transfer window.

[sir_gary_cahill]

7 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Yeah he's alright.

Personally as a plan b for Cahill I'd have gone for Craig Dawson last summer. Moved to Watford for about 6m last summer. Can play CB or right back, big presence in both boxes and can chip in with a few goals as he did in the play offs last season.

He hasn't played a huge amount for Watford this season so might actually be available in next transfer window.

Dawson isn’t a bad shout, he’s underrated I think 

[TRO]

17 hours ago, KentVillan said:

The same arguments have been made and refuted over and over again over 100s of pages of this thread. Some of them are just opinions, but a few are just factually wrong, and it's frustrating to see them trotted out as if they're gospel.

Defensive football wins the Championship: I'd say 4 sides in the last 5 seasons (Norwich, Wolves, Bournemouth, Watford) have finished top 2 largely on the strength of their attacking football. There's no iron law that says you only go up by following the Warnock playbook.

Smith's stats are bad when I need them to be, inconclusive when I don't: It's hypocritical to say Smith's record speaks for itself and then deny significant parts of that record because "small sample" or "Grealish" or whatever other excuse.

We'll be garbage without Grealish: don't get me wrong, Jack leaving Villa will be a very sad day. He's one of the best players of his generation. But the logical fallacy is the idea that Villa without Grealish will be the 2019/20 squad minus Grealish. That's clearly untrue - we would reinvest that money. In Championship terms it would get us some real quality players across the park. So when people keep banging on about how we played when Grealish was injured last season, what is the relevance?

Defensive football alone, wins nothing....there has to be more to it, to get winning football.

However the teams you mentioned above all had the following goals for /against during their promotion seasons, respectively.....93/57 - 82/39 -98/45- 91/50

Newcastle and Brighton had .....85/40 - 74/40 respectively...in their promotion seasons.

so while you point about offensive football is valid, it can't be a trade off......you have to do both attack and defend and know when to either competently.

All those teams above demonstarated a defensive capability and interestingly Wolves had the same goals against as cardiff during their  propmotion season demonstrating their ability to defend too. So no there is no iron law that it wins you titles alone, but it is equally recognised, that it is crucial to winning.

Its clear to me you have to be able to score goals, to win the championship, but defending is important too, particularly to be ready for the top flight...and to win matches.

When we went up our goals for and against were 82/61......So you can see that we were just about ok on goals for, but our goals against was too high, as was Norwich's ( despite all the reasons for or against), which has carried over in to the Prem.....Sheff Utd was 41 in sync with most promoted teams and that has carried over too.

Edited May 9, 2020 by TRO

[villalad21]

47 minutes ago, TRO said:

The gelling is a reasonable call

But surely they have "gelled" more now since the opening game? Yet we look a worse side now.

You would think we would see improvements over time, not getting worse.

[Only2McInallys]

14 hours ago, KentVillan said:

The same arguments have been made and refuted over and over again over 100s of pages of this thread. Some of them are just opinions, but a few are just factually wrong, and it's frustrating to see them trotted out as if they're gospel.

Defensive football wins the Championship: I'd say 4 sides in the last 5 seasons (Norwich, Wolves, Bournemouth, Watford) have finished top 2 largely on the strength of their attacking football. There's no iron law that says you only go up by following the Warnock playbook.

Smith's stats are bad when I need them to be, inconclusive when I don't: It's hypocritical to say Smith's record speaks for itself and then deny significant parts of that record because "small sample" or "Grealish" or whatever other excuse.

We'll be garbage without Grealish: don't get me wrong, Jack leaving Villa will be a very sad day. He's one of the best players of his generation. But the logical fallacy is the idea that Villa without Grealish will be the 2019/20 squad minus Grealish. That's clearly untrue - we would reinvest that money. In Championship terms it would get us some real quality players across the park. So when people keep banging on about how we played when Grealish was injured last season, what is the relevance?

A lot of points here I would agree with.To get into automatic promotion spots you need to win games,getting draws is a waste of time .This why Bruce with us and Pulis with Middlesbororugh failed.

But keeping things tight at the back ,being good at set pieces ,grinding out draws are essential for premier league survival.This is why Newcastle appear to be safe and Bruce style football works.

Smith needs to change some of his philosophy.When we lose the ball in attack teams seem to get to our defence with ease.

.Our problems at set pieces are inexcusable(I believe we have conceded more from corners than any other team)You would think this could sorted out on the training ground.

The question is can he make us stronger defensively without too much affect on our attacking play.

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Only2McInallys

[TRO]

3 hours ago, villalad21 said:

But surely they have "gelled" more now since the opening game? Yet we look a worse side now.

You would think we would see improvements over time, not getting worse.

I agree.

I think too many reversals has taken its toll on confidence and that is difficult to quantify, I suspect a lack of midfield General with a winning mentality, has not helped with that.....we need a player to rally and inspire the troops.

You would think gelling is likely to get better not worse...

The gelling argument may have credence, but is hard to prove either way.

its another jam tomorrow comment, that may or may not have legs.

[TRO]

2 hours ago, Only2McInallys said:

A lot of points here I would agree with.To get into automatic promotion spots you need to win games,getting draws is a waste of time .This why Bruce with us and Pulis with Middlesbororugh failed.

But keeping things tight at the back ,being good at set pieces ,grinding out draws are essential for premier league survival.This is why Newcastle appear to be safe and Bruce style football works.

Smith needs to change some of his philosophy.When we lose the ball in attack teams seem to get to our defence with ease.

.Our problems at set pieces are inexcusable(I believe we have conceded more from corners than any other team)You would think this could sorted out on the training ground.

The question is can he make us stronger defensively without too much affect on our attacking play.

 

I think you make sound observations.