brommy Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, One For The Road said: I know what you are saying but you can't use the "4 points behind with one game to go" argument because my point is about leapfrogging teams over a season. Obviously you can't go above a team who are 1 place above you if they are 4 points clear. My point is, being behind so many teams means that the likelihood of, say, 2 or 3 of those teams going on a great run is quite high so even if we DID go on a run ourselves it is more likely to be in vain. If you are only behind a few teams however, and you go on a great run, you will have a better chance of catching them. But as I say, none of this is relevant given our defence, our manager and our inability to buy in January to fix the other two. With 36 games to go, would you take being 24th but only 3 points off the top two instead of being 15th but 6 points off the top two? I know I would. Teams can be leapfrogged without even playing them - provided there isn’t the points gap you are less bothered than places about. Obviously there are plenty of teams to get above but with so many games to play, it still remains easier to close 6 points and 13 places than say 12 points and 7 places. As poor as our points return after the first 10 games has been, not being a dozen points off the top two teams is so much better than being higher placed in the table. Again, I’m not excusing Bruce’s and the team performances to date, as I suspect if things don’t change fairly quickly the current lack of a ‘runaway two’ could appear to Villa like a nightmare ‘runaway half dozen’ in another 10 games or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 The way we have performed this season "The race for promotion" is completely irrelevant to us. Our current level is bottom half of the championship. Every time we have played a decent team we have been ripped apart. Until there's a change in management, or the team play to their level then this thread should be moved to "other football". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheStagMan Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Its really amazing that after such a bad start we are still only a few points off the top. Fingers crossed we can put a run together (hopefully under a new manager) and start to clamber over people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 minute ago, TheStagMan said: Its really amazing that after such a bad start we are still only a few points off the top. Fingers crossed we can put a run together (hopefully under a new manager) and start to clamber over people. The problem is, and that's what I was getting at with my above comments, is that several good teams can say exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 hour ago, One For The Road said: The problem is, and that's what I was getting at with my above comments, is that several good teams can say exactly the same. From game one, It’s the same for every team hoping for promotion, hoping to finish above 22 other teams. Whether a team is currently in third or last place, it’s better to be 5 or 6 points behind that top two than a dozen or so points behind them, which with our poor start and a slightly more typical Championship season, we could have been. Respective ambitions aside, we are competing against all the teams in the division for those top two places, whether they are currently above us or not. Imagine a season with a 6 point handicap. With a fixed amount of games remaining, it’s better than a 12 point handicap, no matter how many teams are competing. 6 points (even with 12 teams in between] is only a small crumb of comfort over more points but less teams, given where we should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted October 1, 2018 Moderator Share Posted October 1, 2018 I feel like this should be moved to Other Football now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbr600rr Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 answer this question 100% honest..when did villa play a game they truly deserved the win? WOLVES at home last year! since then it average, the league tells you that, villa are in the gamble bracket for me, this is the bracket that will roll the dice via play offs , no more no less. unless SB goes & some big changes happen..the results will be the same 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 8 hours ago, One For The Road said: The problem is, and that's what I was getting at with my above comments, is that several good teams can say exactly the same. Are they all waiting for a change of manager aswell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashingqwerty Posted October 1, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2018 11 hours ago, brommy said: In regards to the points versus positions debate, I definitely don’t agree with you. Taking the issue to it’s extreme, with one game to go, would you rather be just one place but 4 points outside of promotion or a couple of places and 2 points behind? Conversely, supposing the league had been even more evenly spread than it is at the moment, I would take being 24th after 10 games if we were only 3 points from the top! Yes there are lots of teams above us but with only 6 points to make up over the next 36 games, it’s easier than making up more points but less places. It’s simple maths - you can gain plenty of places with a win, but you can never gain more than 3 points! I suspect I do agree with you that promotion is unlikely with the current situation. However, given the correct changes made sooner rather than later, a 6 point deficit is closable over 30+ games, no matter how many league places that happens to be. If you want to talk maths in this context then you need to be looking and probability and causality and not basic arithmatic. Given the scenario of 15th place and 6 points behind and 24th place but 3 points behind, the probability of 1 team outperforming 23 other teams even slightly, is far, far, FAR, higher (as in less likely to happen) than the probability of 1 team out performing 14 teams. If you want, i could write out the equations for you, but its late and i am tired so maybe tomorrow. But doing the equation in my head, its about 4 times more likely that the 15th placed team succeeds than the 24th placed one, despite the different points gaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, flashingqwerty said: If you want to talk maths in this context then you need to be looking and probability and causality and not basic arithmatic. Given the scenario of 15th place and 6 points behind and 24th place but 3 points behind, the probability of 1 team outperforming 23 other teams even slightly, is far, far, FAR, higher (as in less likely to happen) than the probability of 1 team out performing 14 teams. If you want, i could write out the equations for you, but its late and i am tired so maybe tomorrow. But doing the equation in my head, its about 4 times more likely that the 15th placed team succeeds than the 24th placed one, despite the different points gaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashingqwerty Posted October 1, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 minute ago, sne said: Prob not under bruce tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Just now, flashingqwerty said: Prob not under bruce tbh Sad but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, flashingqwerty said: If you want to talk maths in this context then you need to be looking and probability and causality and not basic arithmatic. Given the scenario of 15th place and 6 points behind and 24th place but 3 points behind, the probability of 1 team outperforming 23 other teams even slightly, is far, far, FAR, higher (as in less likely to happen) than the probability of 1 team out performing 14 teams. If you want, i could write out the equations for you, but its late and i am tired so maybe tomorrow. But doing the equation in my head, its about 4 times more likely that the 15th placed team succeeds than the 24th placed one, despite the different points gaps. So what is the points behind to places behind ratio that is equal? How does your calculation work when taken to the two far extremes, i.e the very start or the season with everyone to play but given a points handicap (surely the fewer points deficit is better no matter how many teams are above you}, and only a few games to go where there are a few teams still above us but at least the points gap is still mathematically possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashingqwerty Posted October 1, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted October 1, 2018 1 minute ago, brommy said: So what is the points behind to places behind ratio that is equal? How does your calculation work when taken to the two far extremes, i.e the very start or the season with everyone to play but given a points handicap (surely the fewer points deficit is better no matter how many teams are above you}, and only a few games to go where there are a few teams still above us but at least the points gap is still mathematically possible? The point at which there is a swing is when you start in the middle of the pack. For instance, when you sit 24th, to leap over 23 teams you have a reduced capacity in how far you can move - obviously this is dependent on the pts the teams about you start with, but match to match, you can only outperform so many, and as you move through the matches towards the end of the season statistically those at the top are more likely to perform better. From 24th, assuming results go in your favour, after game 1, your best placeing is 10th, because you can only outperform 66% of teams, after game 3 its 4th, game 3 its 2nd and game 4, 1st. From 15th, game 1 is 5th, game 2 is 2nd, game 3 is 1st. These are extreme examples that dont follow probability and causality but does highlight how a lesser number of teams but greater pts, still means easier progression up the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dounavilla Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaDakota Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 (edited) 10 hours ago, flashingqwerty said: The point at which there is a swing is when you start in the middle of the pack. For instance, when you sit 24th, to leap over 23 teams you have a reduced capacity in how far you can move - obviously this is dependent on the pts the teams about you start with, but match to match, you can only outperform so many, and as you move through the matches towards the end of the season statistically those at the top are more likely to perform better. From 24th, assuming results go in your favour, after game 1, your best placeing is 10th, because you can only outperform 66% of teams, after game 3 its 4th, game 3 its 2nd and game 4, 1st. From 15th, game 1 is 5th, game 2 is 2nd, game 3 is 1st. These are extreme examples that dont follow probability and causality but does highlight how a lesser number of teams but greater pts, still means easier progression up the table. You can outperform a lot more than 66% of the teams above you. This weekend alone there were 7 draws in the championship. Only 5 teams won. If you were one of those 5 you picked up more points than 82.6% of the other teams. Only Swansea won by more than one goal so technically they outperformed everyone as they picked up 3 points & +3 goal difference. How far you can move is shown perfectly this week too though. If you are lucky you can shoot up the table, unlucky and nothing much happens. After 9 games Swansea were 14th on 13 points Bolton were 1 place below in 15th with 12 points. Both teams actually won on Saturday. Swansea moved up to 7th, Bolton moved up only 1 place to 14th. Both teams had 7 teams above them by 1 or 2 points before Saturdays games but swansea had the advantage of 6 of those being only 1 point in front so they jumped them all where Bolton only had 2 teams within 1 point (& one of those was Swansea) and most of the teams 2 points above them picked up a point and already had better goal difference. Norwich also managed a big jump from 11th to 5th Edited October 2, 2018 by LakotaDakota 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 9 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said: Are they all waiting for a change of manager aswell? Probably. Just take Wigan. Great start and all that but I bet they are dying to have Bruce back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Expect more points dropped today. Either a bore draw or another frustrating night when the shambles of our defence lets us down again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praisedmambo Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 32 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Expect more points dropped today. Either a bore draw or another frustrating night when the shambles of our defence lets us down again I was on the fence about our manager a few weeks ago but now I'm in the 'not really bothered if we lose' club. Whatever it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashingqwerty Posted October 2, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted October 2, 2018 10 hours ago, LakotaDakota said: You can outperform a lot more than 66% of the teams above you. This weekend alone there were 7 draws in the championship. Only 5 teams won. If you were one of those 5 you picked up more points than 82.6% of the other teams. Only Swansea won by more than one goal so technically they outperformed everyone as they picked up 3 points & +3 goal difference. How far you can move is shown perfectly this week too though. If you are lucky you can shoot up the table, unlucky and nothing much happens. After 9 games Swansea were 14th on 13 points Bolton were 1 place below in 15th with 12 points. Both teams actually won on Saturday. Swansea moved up to 7th, Bolton moved up only 1 place to 14th. Both teams had 7 teams above them by 1 or 2 points before Saturdays games but swansea had the advantage of 6 of those being only 1 point in front so they jumped them all where Bolton only had 2 teams within 1 point (& one of those was Swansea) and most of the teams 2 points above them picked up a point and already had better goal difference. Norwich also managed a big jump from 11th to 5th However statistically speaking 66% is a very favourable selection. Yes anything can and does happen, but if there were models that accounted for chance bookies would go out of business over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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