Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

Things are kicking off in Chechnya. Reports of armed clashes in Grosny and its suburbs between Kadyrovites and unknown armed civilians.. as predicted.

Give it a few weeks and Dagestan will be next. Putin is losing his fodder.

Edited April 12, 2023 by magnkarl

[bickster]

Just now, magnkarl said:

Things are kicking off in Chechnya. Reports of armed clashes in Grosny between Kadyrovites and unknown armed groups.. as predicted.

Also 1000 Chechens joined the Ukrainian Foreign Legion only last week I think

[magnkarl]

It's officially been over 6 months since Russian vatniks claimed that Bakhmut would fall quickly. it's still held mainly by Ukraine, now against the railroad embankment in the middle of the city. Wagner is reduced to only being able to fight in this one spot against Ukraine's best SF mechanised brigades covered by extremely capable artillery brigades. 

Wagner is soon no more. 

[villa89]

10 minutes ago, bickster said:

Also 1000 Chechens joined the Ukrainian Foreign Legion only last week I think

The won't be long heading home to fight in their war of independence. Kadyrov probably going to go for it now that it looks like he's dying and Putin is so weak.

[villa89]

13 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

 unknown armed civilians..

Is that another word for Russian Soliders?

[blandy]

7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

it's still held mainly by Ukraine

All the reports I’ve seen say the opposite. 75% in Russian hands

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

All the reports I’ve seen say the opposite. 75% in Russian hands

Well, let me rephrase. The stuff that isn't rubble on the Western side of the railroad is in UA hands. I don't really see them losing that unless they're planning to withdraw. The pictures from the ground show that Ukraine has fortified the big buildings a bit West of the railroad, so every inch Russia takes costs a lot of soldiers.

[Anthony]

Re Navalny and the comments on the previous page. 

The comments he made were in 2015. Remember that before we start taking about his position on various issues. Things change and opinions change. One example is that he has admitted that sharing a podium with actual Nazis was a bad move, because he isn't a Nazi, he doesn't endorse their worldviews, and, of course, it makes him look bad. 

He's more nationalistic than I would like, but nearly everyone on the planet is more nationalistic than me. On the Russian scale he's not nationalistic at all. 

As far as racism goes, no more than the average Russian. i.e. quite racist. He's not a rabid Russian supremacist though, unlike our great friend Vladimir. 

If you have read in the past that he was a bad 'un, then check how up to date your info is. Also, where did the info come from? Was it a standard Putin smear, or was it a reputable source. That said, people in this thread are quite good at sorting the wheat from the chaff. 

Needless to say I disagree strongly with @magnkarland @Mandy Lifeboatson this. 

 

Edited April 12, 2023 by Anthony
Changed 'this' to 'the previous'

[magnkarl]

37 minutes ago, Anthony said:

Re Navalny and the comments on the previous page. 

The comments he made were in 2015. Remember that before we start taking about his position on various issues. Things change and opinions change. One example is that he has admitted that sharing a podium with actual Nazis was a bad move, because he isn't a Nazi, he doesn't endorse their worldviews, and, of course, it makes him look bad. 

He's more nationalistic than I would like, but nearly everyone on the planet is more nationalistic than me. On the Russian scale he's not nationalistic at all. 

As far as racism goes, no more than the average Russian. i.e. quite racist. He's not a rabid Russian supremacist though, unlike our great friend Vladimir. 

If you have read in the past that he was a bad 'un, then check how up to date your info is. Also, where did the info come from? Was it a standard Putin smear, or was it a reputable source. That said, people in this thread are quite good at sorting the wheat from the chaff. 

Needless to say I disagree strongly with @magnkarland @Mandy Lifeboatson this. 

 

It's always good to have a discussion about these things, I've been to a lecture by Gary Kasparov on the opposition to Putin within Russia and the amount of proof backed evidence he had to show about Navalny doesn't exactly paint the man as a good un'.

I.e

Quote

Navalny’s political fame rests primarily on his success as an anti-corruption activist — but he’s also made waves with his strident xenophobia. In one notorious 2007 video, he equates Muslim militants with “cockroaches” that can only be dealt with by exterminating them. In another from 2011, he depicts himself as an unapologetic nationalist who will deport non-White immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus by ruthlessly deporting them. There are other examples.

Some well-respected journalists have written nuanced analyses of Navalny’s remarks that help us to understand his rise in Russian politics. It’s true that the videos I’ve cited above are old — but he’s been strikingly consistent in his refusal to disavow them. (He did take back one comment he made back at the time of the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 when he described Georgians using a racist epithet.) I’ve heard some defenders claim that he has “softened” his tone or assert that some people in the southern regions of the former USSR have rallied for him — as if that absolves him from his disgraceful language.

Navalny could easily resolve matters by taking a clear stand. But as recently as December, in an interview with economist Sergei Guriev, he has instead tried to fudge the issue. He also dodged it in this 2019 interview with the Financial Times — in which he repeatedly and gratuitously uses a Russian slur for gay people.

A person’s past mistakes or ignorance should never permanently define them. But the stubborn refusal to address them in a meaningful way causes problems of its own. At some point, Navalny has to decide if he wants to set a better example or prefers to follow the path of those Russian liberal elites who ignore racism in their own country.

Better than Putin? Sure. Good as a leader of a country that's had crap leaders for a long time? Not so sure.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 hours ago, Anthony said:

Re Navalny and the comments on the previous page. 

The comments he made were in 2015. Remember that before we start taking about his position on various issues. Things change and opinions change. One example is that he has admitted that sharing a podium with actual Nazis was a bad move, because he isn't a Nazi, he doesn't endorse their worldviews, and, of course, it makes him look bad. 

He's more nationalistic than I would like, but nearly everyone on the planet is more nationalistic than me. On the Russian scale he's not nationalistic at all. 

As far as racism goes, no more than the average Russian. i.e. quite racist. He's not a rabid Russian supremacist though, unlike our great friend Vladimir. 

If you have read in the past that he was a bad 'un, then check how up to date your info is. Also, where did the info come from? Was it a standard Putin smear, or was it a reputable source. That said, people in this thread are quite good at sorting the wheat from the chaff. 

Needless to say I disagree strongly with @magnkarland @Mandy Lifeboatson this. 

 

My opinion is based upon his recent opinions.  He supported the war with Georgia and the annexation of their land.  He has not moved from that standpoint. 

He opposed the military occupation of Crimea in 2014.  But also said that it was Russian should remain Russian.  

He opposes the arming of Ukraine by the West due to the Russian deaths it will cause.  No mention of the Ukrainian deaths caused by Russia. 

He was recently asked, if he became president would he give Crimea back to Ukraine?   He avoided the question by saying that it shouldn’t be passed backwards and forwards.  

His opposition of Putin is based upon the level of corruption and criminality in the Russian Government.  I have yet to read anything that suggests his policies would be substantially different.

[foreveryoung]

Beware there's a video going about with a juggly pair of boobies, cuts off to the beheading of that Ukranian geezer. Not pretty, just bollocked my pal who sent it. 

[magnkarl]

May be disinformation, but it shows why Putin's stupid war is going so badly if true..

Leaked Pentagon Docs Share Wild Rumor: Kremlin Plans to ‘Throw’ Putin’s War While He’s Getting Chemo

Quote

The leaked Pentagon documents contain a rumor that Russia’s top general is conspiring to “throw” the war in Ukraine while Putin is getting chemotherapy. 

Last week, classified documents from a Pentagon intelligence report made their way onto Telegram and Twitter after leaking on Discord. The leaks appear to have been printed out and photographed before being removed from a secure location. Along with information about troop movements and casualties in Ukraine, the documents also contain daily intelligence briefings, a collection of short bits of information from various sources around the world.

One of those slides suggested that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov have a plan to sabotage Putin while he’s getting treatment for cancer.

Some windows are due to be frequently opened.

[HKP90]

10 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

May be disinformation, but it shows why Putin's stupid war is going so badly if true..

Leaked Pentagon Docs Share Wild Rumor: Kremlin Plans to ‘Throw’ Putin’s War While He’s Getting Chemo

Some windows are due to be frequently opened.

Imagine how awful you must be as a human being when Cancer is the good guy. 

[Straggler]

Not sure I buy it. Even I know that classified documents in the states contain information that when printed would identify who printed them and from which printer. Taking a photo of them won't prevent that identification taking place. I'd imagine a person who has the classification to receive the documents would know this too (although I would not have levelled that accusation at the previous administration). 

So it is either fake, or a deliberate leak IMO. With the information contained being almost exactly what loads of people want to hear I'm going with fake. if it's too good to be true it's probably not true.

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Straggler said:

So it is either fake, or a deliberate leak IMO. With the information contained being almost exactly what loads of people want to hear I'm going with fake. if it's too good to be true it's probably not true.

The more I see of these leaks, the more I'm inclined to agree that this is Op Mincemeat II

[The Fun Factory]

Putin being ill is too good to be true. He will live to his 90s like dear old Bobbie Mugabe.

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Putin being ill is too good to be true. He will live to his 90s like dear old Bobbie Mugabe.

He's definitely ill, that bit isn't misinformation. That's been known for sometime, well before the invasion. The misinformation is the bit about the generals planning to lose the war when he's having chemo.

[Genie]

21 minutes ago, bickster said:

He's definitely ill, that bit isn't misinformation. That's been known for sometime, well before the invasion. The misinformation is the bit about the generals planning to lose the war when he's having chemo.

Why would Putin having Chemo be an opportunity for the generals? I doubt he’s going to take a few weeks off work like a normal person.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, Straggler said:

Not sure I buy it. Even I know that classified documents in the states contain information that when printed would identify who printed them and from which printer. Taking a photo of them won't prevent that identification taking place. I'd imagine a person who has the classification to receive the documents would know this too (although I would not have levelled that accusation at the previous administration). 

So it is either fake, or a deliberate leak IMO. With the information contained being almost exactly what loads of people want to hear I'm going with fake. if it's too good to be true it's probably not true.

Have you read the Washington Post article about how they got out? Seems a bit convoluted and long winded if the US was trying to leak it deliberately. 
 

Quote

The man behind a massive leak of U.S. government secrets that has exposed spying on allies, revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia and ignited diplomatic fires for the White House is a young, charismatic gun enthusiast who shared highly classified documents with a group of far-flung acquaintances searching for companionship amid the isolation of the pandemic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

The more I see of these leaks, the more I'm inclined to agree that this is Op Mincemeat II

Well, in that case we'll also have to discount the leaks about Ukraine's ammo situation and counter offensive - as it appears to be from the same guy..

Though I agree, some of it seems too good to be true. Maybe a UA\USA planned disinfo campaign before the counter attack.