Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[HKP90]

4 minutes ago, tinker said:

I think you will find Russia is still supplying Europe with gas through different pipelines , Yamal was cut off yesterday, Brotherhood and Souyoz are still in use and so is the southern line to Turkey.

Maybe this is the answer. How does greater reliance on pipelines through countries such as Turkey affect geopolitics? As any of the countries through which those pipelines run could potentially cut supply, does it give them greater leverage when dealing with the EU, now they are relatively more important?

[ender4]

3 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Also remember we can at any time end the Russian oil trade. The only way they have of getting oil to its new main buyer - China - is via this big transfer hub set up with 5 old giant oil tankers in the Atlantic. This is the only way Russia can keep the oil from backing up and shutting down the wells. 

We can detain all the Russian ships easily for "inspections". This would mean they can't keep the oil pumping and have back ups causing a catastrophe for them. You can't simply turn these off. The oil needs to flow and go somewhere. 

The Navy of the western world is essentially impossible to oppose. We can shit down anything in the ocean if we want to and nobody could do anything to stop it.

So why don’t Europe/USA do that as part of their sanctions?

[LondonLax]

24 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

Maybe this is the answer. How does greater reliance on pipelines through countries such as Turkey affect geopolitics? As any of the countries through which those pipelines run could potentially cut supply, does it give them greater leverage when dealing with the EU, now they are relatively more important?

But Russia had full control over gas flow through Nord Stream. It didn’t need to blow them up to put pressure on the other lines, they only had to leave them off.

I think we are really reaching to blame Russia because ‘they are the baddies so it must be them’ when there is no logical reason for it.

[HKP90]

2 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

But Russia had full control over gas flow through Nord Stream. It didn’t need to blow them up to put pressure on the other lines, they only had to leave them off.

I think we are really reaching to blame Russia because ‘they are the baddies so it must be them’ when there is no logical reason for it.

But there is no logical reason for anyone to have done it.

 

[mjmooney]

2 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

But there is no logical reason for anyone to have done it.

 

[sne]

11 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

But there is no logical reason for anyone to have done it.

 

Could it be a very elaborate marketing ploy by DC to promote the upcoming Aquaman 2 movie?

[Mr_Dogg]

Why would Russia do it? They're the ones with the gas, just don't pump it? It wasn't flowing anyway. 

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, tinker said:

I think you will find Russia is still supplying Europe with gas through different pipelines , Yamal was cut off yesterday, Brotherhood and Souyoz are still in use and so is the southern line to Turkey.

Ah, I stand corrected. Thanks for the heads up.

[Chindie]

4 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said:

Why would Russia do it? They're the ones with the gas, just don't pump it? It wasn't flowing anyway. 

The pipelines weren't being used currently. An attack on them is a explicitly a threat - we can attack your energy pipelines, we can make this all much worse.

[Mr_Dogg]

Just now, Chindie said:

The pipelines weren't being used currently. An attack on them is a explicitly a threat - we can attack your energy pipelines, we can make this all much worse.

I know they weren't being used, and there was no sign of then being used anytime soon. Surely Russia's preferred scenario is we all make up and they start selling Europe gas again?

[HKP90]

7 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The pipelines weren't being used currently. An attack on them is a explicitly a threat - we can attack your energy pipelines, we can make this all much worse.

I'm not sure it's a very good threat if no one can figure out who did it. 

[Chindie]

Just now, Mr_Dogg said:

I know they weren't being used, and there was no sign of then being used anytime soon. Surely Russia's preferred scenario is we all make up and they start selling Europe gas again?

Yes and no.

Russia wants to be (and still is) selling the West gas and oil. But they also want Ukraine. And they want Ukraine more than they want to go back to selling lots of gas.

[LondonLax]

7 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The pipelines weren't being used currently. An attack on them is a explicitly a threat - we can attack your energy pipelines, we can make this all much worse.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

9 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Yes and no.

Russia wants to be (and still is) selling the West gas and oil. But they also want Ukraine. And they want Ukraine more than they want to go back to selling lots of gas.

I agree, but with a subtle difference.  I think Ukraine is more important to Putin.  But for Russia it's definitely getting back to some normality in the economy.  

That's a useful opportunity for producing a regime change.  

[Chindie]

8 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I agree, but with a subtle difference.  I think Ukraine is more important to Putin.  But for Russia it's definitely getting back to some normality in the economy.  

That's a useful opportunity for producing a regime change.  

Oh I agree. The best thing for Russia is not to be an international pariah for no reason.

But Putin calls the shots and he wants Ukraine. It's vital to him that he doesn't lose face on the conflict.

[avfc1982am]

3 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Oh I agree. The best thing for Russia is not to be an international pariah for no reason.

But Putin calls the shots and he wants Ukraine. It's vital to him that he doesn't lose face on the conflict.

He's already lost face, just as Russian Forces have. Putin imo is now grasping trying to mobilise the population without inciting a full blow civil conflict in order to save his ego. As I've said previously, he's completely destabilised all border regions in search of fantasy. If thing's do escalate, and I'm sure they will. Putin will be lucky to save himself and not just face. We are a long way from that happening the way I see it, but another 100-200k Russian deaths and things may just boil over in Russia. Something will give and it won't be NATO. Not now anyway, that time has passed and industrially NATO haven't even started arming Ukraine properly yet. 

 

[Genie]

Edward Snowdon needs to arrange a meeting with Putin and take one for the team.

[Chindie]

45 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

He's already lost face, just as Russian Forces have. Putin imo is now grasping trying to mobilise the population without inciting a full blow civil conflict in order to save his ego. As I've said previously, he's completely destabilised all border regions in search of fantasy. If thing's do escalate, and I'm sure they will. Putin will be lucky to save himself and not just face. We are a long way from that happening the way I see it, but another 100-200k Russian deaths and things may just boil over in Russia. Something will give and it won't be NATO. Not now anyway, that time has passed and industrially NATO haven't even started arming Ukraine properly yet. 

 

Undoubtedly. But Putin will know that the only thing that matters is the result. He'll not give up on taking at least part of Ukraine until he has no other option but to give up and admit defeat, which is unlikely to happen. He will need to allowed a victory, be that the disputed territories becoming his or ideally to take Ukraine entirely - be that in actuality or with a puppet again - or he'll need to categorically lose, which realistically means his removal from power or death because Russia, for all the embarrassments it's had, will keep chucking men at it, even with its unpopular nature.

Unfortunately even taking him out of the equation is difficult. He's an ex-spy who doesn't trust anyone and is keeping his head down. and he has set up the Russian system to revolve around him. Oligarchs operate the machines of the state thanks to his favour, with the threat that he calls the shots too, and his guarantee of his own safety is a circle of ultra loyalist hardmen who will push his will and protect his position. As such you're basically relying on Putin either dying of his own accord or for one of his circle of enforcers deciding to off him and actually managing it, which seems unlikely.

[tinker]

Who's to say Putin's replacement would be less aggressive. The pool of possible candidates is surely built on Putin's mates.

I'm not sure what Russians are being told about the war, I  have seen a few clips of unrest but I would guess these are being over played by the western media.

Putin sets the agenda and controls what the Russians see and to large extent think. The same as we are but to a larger degree. (Look at the Brexit bullshit most of us were sold) 

How can Russia lose this, despite their hopeless military attempt they still have weapons and the safety of a border that they can re group behind, untouched by certain Ukrainian weapons ( a condition of them being supplied). And then attack again and again until they win or get what they want.

Isnt this the way Russia have always fought wars, by throwing Russian lives at it until they win? 

 

[Mr_Dogg]

2 hours ago, Chindie said:

Yes and no.

Russia wants to be (and still is) selling the West gas and oil. But they also want Ukraine. And they want Ukraine more than they want to go back to selling lots of gas.

I'm not getting what sabotaging their own equipment does for them?