Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

But these battlefield nukes don't really have a massive military advantage. There are no concentrations of men and materials to attack with one of these. 

Using one will have China and India cut them off from support. It could result in a complete blockade of Russia and a proportional NATO/US response. If you use a tactical nuke we will destroy one of your Russian armies. 

For every tactical nuke or chemical weapon used there is a proportional response. USA has explained the response up front 

A nuke used in Ukraine would trigger article 5 due to fallout in NATO nations. It's a no go, and Putin knows it.

[CVByrne]

Putin is doing all this bluster and threats and mobilisation to strengthen any negotiation position he might have when China force talks

[HKP90]

Just now, magnkarl said:

Bingo.

So if they don't fix the leak soon the whole pipe will implode? That will mean replacement. 

Germany must be pretty worried.

[HKP90]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

A nuke used in Ukraine would trigger article 5 due to fallout in NATO nations. It's a no go, and Putin knows it.

Ah, that makes sense. Are we sure he wouldn't though? He's pretty much cornered at this point. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

22 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

If he nukes Kyiv would we not respond in kind? 

If we attack Russian troops in Donbas would he not threaten WW3.

Imo if he nukes Kyiv it will 100% be ww3

We do not respond in kind.  
We wipe out their already stretched and weakened military in an attack from all directions but without crossing the land border. 

[magnkarl]

7 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

So if they don't fix the leak soon the whole pipe will implode? That will mean replacement. 

Germany must be pretty worried.

Yes. The pressure will likely collapse the pipeline up to the next breach doors (if these are in place). Germany won't replace Russia's property that they've likely sabotaged themselves. The whole Nordstream AG is a dodgy conglomeration of German ex-politicians and Putin-stooges. There's hardly been any gas running in the pipe for months, so it's not a loss for Germany. Purely for Russia's export opportunities is this a loss.

This is just another episode of Putin being stupid.

Edited September 27, 2022 by magnkarl

[CVByrne]

Just now, HKP90 said:

Ah, that makes sense. Are we sure he wouldn't though? He's pretty much cornered at this point. 

He'd mobilise a million troops before he used a tactical Nuke. It's China's response which is what would stop him from using one. Even if he himself would use one he knows betraying the last possible ally they have would be the end of them.

Say he used one tactical Nuke. NATO respond with massive air strike crippling their entire force in Ukraine. Xi immediately calls Putin to stop this or China will be forced to intervene.

What is his next step? He knows he loses any actual conflict with NATO. So he uses another tactical nuke on Ukraine?

The whole threat of Nukes is to get the Western Democracies to falter in support for Ukraine. That's it's purpose. Also ordering the use of a Nuke may mean he himself is deposed. The army mutiny or flee after NATO assault. 

His invasion of Ukraine was a gamble, everyone including in the west thought he would win in 20 days and put a puppet back in power in Ukraine. That was a calculated gamble which had a chance of success.

Using any Nuke has no way of ending in success at all. 

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Considering it was\is one of his biggest lines of revenue I'd say it's a bit stupid. I'd argue that he could probably win over Germany again if he'd pulled out of Ukraine and said he was sorry. Now that he's sabotaged his own nose to spite his face they won't ever buy from them again.

I doubt Russia blew this up.  The US maybe.

[magnkarl]

7 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

We do not respond in kind.  
We wipe out their already stretched and weakened military in an attack from all directions but without crossing the land border. 

Ukraine is doing that themselves, though this might push us to deliver the A-level gear. ATACMS, F-16s, Abrahams, Merkavas, Leopard 2's etc.

[CVByrne]

Also remember we can at any time end the Russian oil trade. The only way they have of getting oil to its new main buyer - China - is via this big transfer hub set up with 5 old giant oil tankers in the Atlantic. This is the only way Russia can keep the oil from backing up and shutting down the wells. 

We can detain all the Russian ships easily for "inspections". This would mean they can't keep the oil pumping and have back ups causing a catastrophe for them. You can't simply turn these off. The oil needs to flow and go somewhere. 

The Navy of the western world is essentially impossible to oppose. We can shit down anything in the ocean if we want to and nobody could do anything to stop it.

Russia as a country would collapse completely if they used a tactical nuke. 

[bickster]

19 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Putin is doing all this bluster and threats and mobilisation to strengthen any negotiation position he might have when China force talks

China can't force talks. The will be no talks until Russia leaves all of Ukraine. There is literally nothing to discuss

[HKP90]

8 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

He'd mobilise a million troops before he used a tactical Nuke. It's China's response which is what would stop him from using one. Even if he himself would use one he knows betraying the last possible ally they have would be the end of them.

Say he used one tactical Nuke. NATO respond with massive air strike crippling their entire force in Ukraine. Xi immediately calls Putin to stop this or China will be forced to intervene.

What is his next step? He knows he loses any actual conflict with NATO. So he uses another tactical nuke on Ukraine?

The whole threat of Nukes is to get the Western Democracies to falter in support for Ukraine. That's it's purpose. Also ordering the use of a Nuke may mean he himself is deposed. The army mutiny or flee after NATO assault. 

His invasion of Ukraine was a gamble, everyone including in the west thought he would win in 20 days and put a puppet back in power in Ukraine. That was a calculated gamble which had a chance of success.

Using any Nuke has no way of ending in success at all. 

 

Playing devil's advocate, why would China not reinforce russia's threat, creating an axis? Could they not see this as a way to precipitate a new world order based on their ideals? Russia would lose against NATO but China could challenge it, no?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Ukraine is doing that themselves, though this might push us to deliver the A-level gear. ATACMS, F-16s, Abrahams, Merkavas, Leopard 2's etc.

Correct.  We just speed up the process a great deal.  

 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, HKP90 said:

Playing devil's advocate, why would China not reinforce russia's threat, creating an axis? Could they not see this as a way to precipitate a new world order based on their ideals? Russia would lose against NATO but China could challenge it, no?

China doesn't really give a shit about RUssia, it may even like some of its disputed territory back at some point. A weak Russia actually makes CHina more powerful

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, HKP90 said:

Playing devil's advocate, why would China not reinforce russia's threat, creating an axis? Could they not see this as a way to precipitate a new world order based on their ideals? Russia would lose against NATO but China could challenge it, no?

China cares about China and just as recently as this week said that they respect Ukraine's borders and want the parties to negotiate. It's not happening. China is no one's military ally.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

It's hard to believe this, but during the Cold War the USSR and China were enemies.  In 1969 they were fighting over their borders.  China is only interested in Russia for economic benefits.  Those benefits disappear as soon as Russia escalates.  

China has a long term plan to take over the world that's working well.  

[CVByrne]

20 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

Playing devil's advocate, why would China not reinforce russia's threat, creating an axis? Could they not see this as a way to precipitate a new world order based on their ideals? Russia would lose against NATO but China could challenge it, no?

China's entire economy is based on trade with Europe and USA. It is totally dependent on imports of raw materials from the Middle East, Australia and Africa. China is food dependent on imports. 

There is no situation where China sides with Russia and cuts ties with European and US markets. They would suffer a worse fate than Russia in such a scenario.

Geo politically China has an interest in this Russian war because it wants Taiwan back and it also doesn't like how the world financial system and world trade is dependent on the US dollar and the post WW2 order, like the WTO.

It has absolutely no interest in a new cold war. China is the most dependent nation on globalisation. Made worse when the entire military power of the world is concentrated with the west. 

[Panto_Villan]

A good point was made by @magnkarl above which is worth expanding on. The only plausible scenario for Putin getting a reasonable result from the war m was an economic victory - holding Ukraine to a relative stalemate and hoping a severe winter in Europe makes the West start to pressure Ukraine into making peace.

It’s not likely, but it’s not utterly far fetched either. A far right government has just taken over in Italy, and Trump might win the presidency in the US.

Problem is, if people in Europe start demanding we try to make peace and get cheap gas from Russia again - well Putin has just blown up the pipelines so that’s not even an option any more. Bit of an own goal that.

[avfc1982am]

Significant, as Ukraine are now Northeast of Lyman and can envelop Russians in the area. If they can continue to push east up to the P66 and on to Svatove they could also split the Luhansk Oblast North of Severodonetsk. 

 

[tinker]

Putin's hasnt played his trump card yet and it's not nuclear, it's simply turning the gas off to Europe during a cold snap. He's obviously waiting until the middle of winter. The gas price will rocket to levels never seen before. 

At that's point we will also, I would guess, see power cuts, at least in the UK as we generate the majority of our electricity via gas and the price of it will mean it has to go off.

Problem is the world depends upon Russia for a large portion of its commodities, a situation our politicians have put us in..