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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Surely Norway's anti-sub boats together with a few other NATO nation's patrols would be able to keep these lines safe now that they're aware of it.  NAMMO (the company that designed NASAMS) have also developed frighteningly effective anti-sub weaponry. At this point I presume our own navy together with Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Holland and Poland (tho not much of a navy in Poland) will be intercepting anything suspicious. I doubt Russia would even dare to attack the Norwegian pipes as it's essentially a declaration of war on NATO.

I think there are proper subsea defences in place for things like communication line and gas pipes, I seem to remember reading about it sometime ago.

I mean they probably could overwhelm it if they were desperate but I don't think they could do it stealthily in a precision hit, the multiple Navies would detect activity around the lines which as you say will now have double down security.

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12 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

NAMMO (the company that designed NASAMS) have also developed frighteningly effective anti-sub weaponry. At this point I presume our own navy together with Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Holland and Poland (tho not much of a navy in Poland) will be intercepting anything suspicious. I doubt Russia would even dare to attack the Norwegian pipes as it's essentially a declaration of war on NATO.

I suspect that (as I posted yesterday) a "trawler" (not actually a trawler, but a trawler converted for the purpose) may have been used - when I was in the RAF we used to track these vessels all over the place (I might dig out some old photos if I have time) - they were Russian boats, ostensibly fishing boats, but actually full of listening equipment or other specialist equipment. All they'd need to do was drop a mine over the side and then remotely detonate it at a time of their choosing.

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4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think there are proper subsea defences in place for things like communication line and gas pipes, I seem to remember reading about it sometime ago.

I mean they probably could overwhelm it if they were desperate but I don't think they could do it stealthily in a precision hit, the multiple Navies would detect activity around the lines which as you say will now have double down security.

Isn't the problem that these pipelines are running through international waters? How do you intercept the sub of a country that we aren't at war with and on what legal basis do we tell the Russians they can't be in international waters?

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Russia have been probing undersea infrastructure weaknesses for some time.

I recall there being a report back in Jan about them sniffing around underwater cables that carry information also.

Quote

The head of the UK’s armed forces has warned that Russian submarine activity is threatening underwater cables that are crucial to communication systems around the world.

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-submarines-threatening-undersea-network-of-internet-cables-says-uk-defence-chief-sir-tony-radakin-12511437

Edited by AshVilla
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4 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

Isn't the problem that these pipelines are running through international waters? How do you intercept the sub of a country that we aren't at war with and on what legal basis do we tell the Russians they can't be in international waters?

Well if you are tracking them and then an explosion takes place where they've just paused for a bit or passed over, I think it's pretty bang to rights.

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40 minutes ago, blandy said:

I think the threat is not about the Germans, Italians, buying gas from Russia again, but that Russia can break the supply from Norway to Europe /UK  if they want to. 

Fair do's - but why sign post your next move like this and increase readiness? It's a bit evil bond villain. Surely a real badass just does it. Putin's a faker. 

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10 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Fair do's - but why sign post your next move like this and increase readiness? It's a bit evil bond villain. Surely a real badass just does it. Putin's a faker. 

Why make a threat? The whole point of a threat is to alert the target to "we can do this" and the reason you make a threat is because you want to alert someone to the consequences of them doing something you don't want them to - it's an attempt to bully. It's an attempt to get Europe to ease off on their /our actions against Puti nand Russia. Completely standard Russian behaviour.

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8 minutes ago, blandy said:

Old pics, and 35mm snaps in an album then grabbed with my phone, but still...

We spent just ages checking out various shipping sometimes at ridiculously low level.

IMG_2740.jpegIMG_2739.jpeg

The Woolly Pully Aboard the St. Georges in For Your Eyes Only – Bond Suits

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There was concern with these pipelines that they would be used as an excuse for Russia to undertake surveillance and espionage of various other systems and services, such as comms infrastructure, under the guise of defence and servicing, as well as exacerbating Russia's hold over European energy, so them blowing it up at least solves a few issues on the back side.

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11 minutes ago, Chindie said:

There was concern with these pipelines that they would be used as an excuse for Russia to undertake surveillance and espionage of various other systems and services, such as comms infrastructure, under the guise of defence and servicing, as well as exacerbating Russia's hold over European energy, so them blowing it up at least solves a few issues on the back side.

So another argument in favour of it being an actor from ‘our team’?

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7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The front page of Moscow's largest paper's theory is that the UK and Norway colluded to blow up the pipes. You know that is essentially Russia admitting they did it as their propaganda is so bad.

West is attacking us. We need to mobilise. World really need Putin gone this time.

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17 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

So another argument in favour of it being an actor from ‘our team’?

Possibly. But the benefit is mostly for Russia in the current climate. It ramps pressure on Europe to back down as a threat to other pipelines which could plunge Europe into real trouble, and caused immediate turmoil in the market even though it wasn't actually operating at the time, which only further harms European gas users.

The benefits of the West blowing them themselves are limited, as Russia has been able to legitimately patrol these pipelines for years already and potentially access sensitive infrastructure. Blowing it stops that excuse (largely) going forwards, but if they wanted they had years to gather information.

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