Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

18 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I personally agree with you both. But I was specifically talking about the US opinion on this.  Which is - 

"An unlawful combatant, illegal combatant or unprivileged combatant/belligerent is a person who directly engages in armed conflict in violation of the laws of war and therefore is is not protected by the Geneva Conventions."

That's not helpful in the long run. It's far better to say all combatants are protected by the Geneva Convention. 

Another problem here is that Russia are telling the UK to address the matter with the independent Republic of Donbass ( or whatever they are calling themselves).  The UK does not recognise that country. By engaging with them it means we are recognising them as the legitimate authority.  

 

 

 

The US opinion was specific to it's own citizens going there to fight after the outbreak of hostilities I thought. (and it didn't stop them, there are a number of high profile US volunteers, like James Vasquez.) And it was said at the time Putin was threatening to nuke everyone at the start of the conflict.

That highlighted quote also doesn't apply in anycase because the two Britains were engaged in armed combat WITHIN and not in violation of the laws of war. They were part of the regular Ukraine Army

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

An unlawful combatant, illegal combatant or unprivileged combatant/belligerent is a person who directly engages in armed conflict in violation of the laws of war and therefore is is not protected by the Geneva Conventions."

That's not helpful in the long run. It's far better to say all combatants are protected by the Geneva Convention.

No that’s not right. These two are lawful combatants as members of the regular Ukraine army defending Ukraine against invaders. They are clearly covered under the GC.

In Afghanistan, Pakistani, Saudi nationals, civilians not members of the army entering Afganistan and working with the Taliban a decade ago, to do bad things to the locals etc. are a different kettle of fish.

[ender4]

6 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Russia might take Luhansk, if they’re lucky. Kherson and Zaporizhia oblast is seeing slow Ukrainian progress. Russia is slowly but surely culminating. There’s very few combat effective BTGs left.

With some luck the newest longer range Western weapons will make Ukraine’s fresher brigades able to break through come end of summer.

But what would happen if Ukraine runs out of heavy weaponry soon if the West don’t supply quick enough or stop supplying?   
 

 

[magnkarl]

12 minutes ago, ender4 said:

But what would happen if Ukraine runs out of heavy weaponry soon if the West don’t supply quick enough or stop supplying?   
 

 

Ukraine has ran out of their own soviet stock.

They still have their own national made weaponry, apvs, most of their fighter aircraft, a heap of artillery from many of the former Eastern European republics, Norway, Netherlands, a few from France and brimstone missiles from Scandinavia and UK, over 100 m777s and a growing number of mlrs systems. Ukraine has more tanks than what they started with due to what they captured.

Yes, they’re running out of the dumb bombs from pre 1991, but they’re still fairly well armed considering the war has gone on for soon 4 months. The statement is meant to rile up much needed increases in supplies from the West.

What would happen? It’s not going to happen as Russia doesn’t have the combat power to break through (see Severodonetsk) even if they mass all their forces in one spot. Putin needs to mobilise if he wants more of Ukraine, and if he does he’s toast.

Edited June 11, 2022 by magnkarl

[sidcow]

17 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Putin needs to mobilise if he wants more of Ukraine, and if he does he’s toast.

I'm now of the opinion Putin can do ANYTHING and get away with it. He's got such an iron grip on power and the majority of the population are totally brainwashed. 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

I'm now of the opinion Putin can do ANYTHING and get away with it. He's got such an iron grip on power and the majority of the population are totally brainwashed. 

Possibly. But there’s a reason why he hasn’t mobilised and his May 9th speech was so flat. He’d need to row back over 100 days of statements about this not being a war, not needing to conscript, not having any trouble at all in Ukraine. It’s a massive loss of face and admitting that he was wrong/lying for 100 days straight. 

[tinker]

6 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Unfortunately I think USA has shot itself in the foot. 

I seem to recall the USA saying that foreign fighters in Afghanistan were "illegal combatants" and not entitled to POW status.  

What's the difference? 

 

 

We will see, all's fair in love and war 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by tinker

[Straggler]

13 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Possibly. But there’s a reason why he hasn’t mobilised and his May 9th speech was so flat. He’d need to row back over 100 days of statements about this not being a war, not needing to conscript, not having any trouble at all in Ukraine. It’s a massive loss of face and admitting that he was wrong/lying for 100 days straight. 

This is the brave new world of doublespeak though.  He can simply say that they have always been at war with the Ukraine and NATO, that conscription was inevitable and the size of the NATO fuelled opposition shows how right he was to react to the Nazi Ukrainian aggression in the first place. He can spout any old crap he wants, so long as the media repeat it.

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, Straggler said:

This is the brave new world of doublespeak though.  He can simply say that they have always been at war with the Ukraine and NATO, that conscription was inevitable and the size of the NATO fuelled opposition shows how right he was to react to the Nazi Ukrainian aggression in the first place. He can spout any old crap he wants, so long as the media repeat it.

True....But he cannot declare War or drag the population of Russia as they see it into one. I think the fear from the Kremlin is if they do then the anti war protests go overdrive and Putin loses control. I think they'd be right. 

I think most Russians see through the bs now and realise this is an imperialistic land grab. 

[PussEKatt]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

True....But he cannot declare War or drag the population of Russia as they see it into one. I think the fear from the Kremlin is if they do then the anti war protests go overdrive and Putin loses control. I think they'd be right. 

I think most Russians see through the bs now and realise this is an imperialistic land grab. 

The trouble is that most Russians are so brainwashed /under Putins control that the majority of them will do nothing.

Also,all these sanctions are doing nothing because Putin does not care how the general population of Russia are doing and he certainly does not care how many men die in the war with Ukraine.He is doing allright,because with his contacts and resources he is not missing out on anything or suffering the effects of the sanctions.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

True....But he cannot declare War or drag the population of Russia as they see it into one. I think the fear from the Kremlin is if they do then the anti war protests go overdrive and Putin loses control. I think they'd be right. 

I think most Russians see through the bs now and realise this is an imperialistic land grab. 

I think you're a bit too hopeful there. It's become clear the level of brainwashing from decades of Kremlin controlled media and I've no doubt highly controlled education runs deep.  I don't think we can begin to understand how the average Russian thinks. 

[bickster]

4 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

The trouble is that most Russians are so brainwashed /under Putins control that the majority of them will do nothing.

 

3 hours ago, sidcow said:

I think you're a bit too hopeful there. It's become clear the level of brainwashing from decades of Kremlin controlled media and I've no doubt highly controlled education runs deep. 

You're making a mistake of treating Russia as one large homogenous entity here. It isn't. Not only that but you are confusing supression of the people with brainwashing. Sure some people are brainwashed but an awful lot aren't, a lot are just scared to act.

People are scared to say or do anything because they know the consequences but the Putin and the Kremlin also know that in the large cities especially there is a line that it is very difficult to cross and that is the whole reason why he has never once called this a war. War means mass mobilisation and conscription and no matter how brainwashed the Russian people are, they know it's a war that they started. Even Putin can't deny that.

Now the large cities are important here because they are mainly in European Russia and are much closer to the NATO boundaries. He declares war and watch those large cities react. For those of conscription age, it then becomes a question of protest, get injured and put in jail for a long time or get blown to bits in a war they really don't want. For those over conscription age, it becomes a question (for them, especially due to the rhetoric at home) of getting potentially blown to bits in their own homes. And that is the balancing act Putin has been playing and the longer the war goes on, the less likely he is to declare a war and mobilise because the consequences are worse the longer it goes on.

The longer it goes on, the less troops he has to quell anything on the home front, he's already dangerously close to being unable to defend anything on land, his army and his reserves of vehicles are seriously depleted. The army couldn't even muster enough troops to fight the seasonal wildfires in places like Siberia that they usually do. It's also true that a lot of the conscripted troops are from the countryside and the east because Russia is racist from the top of society to the bottom. Those from the East have never been seen as equals by those in the West, thats why the government conscripts them and in situations like this, uses them as canon fodder. The other thing to note here about Russian conscription, is that conscripts can't be sent into battle by law unless its wartime. Only contracted soldiers i.e. those that signed up of their own free will during or after their conscription can be sent into a conflict. So when you see Russian Army figures, those are for conscripted and contracted soldiers. So what is covering the home front right now are mainly conscripts, conscripts aren't going to start killing their own people to quell protests

If you want evidence of the young people of conscription age not wanting to join up right now (because of the looming possibility or war meaning they can get sent to the front) just look at the amount of fires taking place at conscription offices across Russia, it isn't partizans or Ukrainian Special Forces doing this, it's Russians shitting themselves that they might be called up

The large cities are key to any overthrow of the government and Putin declaring this a war is highly likely to trigger massive protests and who knows where that could lead, Putin sure as hell doesn't and because he doesn't he can't.

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

I think you're a bit too hopeful there. It's become clear the level of brainwashing from decades of Kremlin controlled media and I've no doubt highly controlled education runs deep.  I don't think we can begin to understand how the average Russian thinks. 

I think your making the mistake of seeing brainwashing instead of fear. I think @bickster put how I see things, perfectly well above. For all the control Putin appears to have, it's a Navalny type situation away from triggering something in Russia that even Putin will struggle to contain. Therefore, I don't feel I have misjudged anything. If Putin really thought everyone in Russia was on board, he would have declared War on Ukraine. He's tightrope walking and hoping Russian citizens don't get too pissed off and brave. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by avfc1982am

[magnkarl]

For reference, Russia tried to push at Slovyansk (South of this map) two days ago, they left their flanks exposed which Ukraine are now pushing into. I wonder if the Russians are ever capable of learning from their mistakes.

Edited June 13, 2022 by magnkarl

[Mister_a]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

For reference, Russia tried to push at Slovyansk (South of this map) two days ago, they left their flanks exposed which Ukraine are now pushing into. I wonder if the Russians are ever capable of learning from their mistakes.

I guess they would have to admit them to their superiors first, which makes it all very unlikely!

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Mister_a said:

I guess they would have to admit them to their superiors first, which makes it all very unlikely!

The Russian military appears to very dysfunctional looking through Western eyes. The command structure is very different. NATO forces allow flexibility down the line for NCOs and Junior officers to make tactical decisions based on current conditions. Russia on the other hand seems to have a very rigid structure. NCOs and junior officers have to stick to the plan as laid out, which is why so many high ranking officers are meeting their end, they have to be in field to issue their orders. But even then the Generals stick to the plan as laid out to them from the manual. There appears to be little learning from mistakes and debriefing. It really is a case of rinse and repeat, they literally just chuck fresh meat into the grinder and start again

It's not a case of admitting anything, they did as they were told and it failed, so do they do it again until it works, except it very often doesn't. Russian military doctrine is rigid just like it was in the Soviet era. It worked in WWII so it'll work again

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Next thread: “China’s Non-War in Taiwan”

 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by BleedClaretAndBlue

[PussEKatt]

What I dont understand,is,surely Putin must know that if/when he takes over Ukraine he will have to have a very large garrison in that country because the Ukrainians do not wan anything to do with Russia ( even in WW II ) so there will be partisan attacks all over the place on Russian barracks etc etc.Cant he see that ?!.

[magnkarl]

6 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

What I dont understand,is,surely Putin must know that if/when he takes over Ukraine he will have to have a very large garrison in that country because the Ukrainians do not wan anything to do with Russia ( even in WW II ) so there will be partisan attacks all over the place on Russian barracks etc etc.Cant he see that ?!.

At this rate Russia won’t take anything other than maybe Crimea and Donbas. The NATO nations are expected to sign a new delivery deal today which will include main battle tanks, missile defence systems and even longer range artillery. This equipment will go up against t62’s and forced conscripts with no morale.

Maybe Ukraine stops the war when they’ve pushed Russia back to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, but it doesn’t seem like there’s appetite for any concessions at all.

Russia is having enough trouble with partisan activity in the areas they have now, soldiers are getting stabbed, collaborative mayors are getting killed and no one seems to figure out how to deal with it.

Morale will probably decide who wins this war. My bet is on the country defending themselves from annihilation.

[Arj Guy]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

At this rate Russia won’t take anything other than maybe Crimea and Donbas. The NATO nations are expected to sign a new delivery deal today which will include main battle tanks, missile defence systems and even longer range artillery. This equipment will go up against t62’s and forced conscripts with no morale.

Maybe Ukraine stops the war when they’ve pushed Russia back to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, but it doesn’t seem like there’s appetite for any concessions at all.

Russia is having enough trouble with partisan activity in the areas they have now, soldiers are getting stabbed, collaborative mayors are getting killed and no one seems to figure out how to deal with it.

Morale will probably decide who wins this war. My bet is on the country defending themselves from annihilation.

It's Russias advantage in artillery that will determine this war. Ukraine admit they have 1 artillery piece for every 10 to 15 which Russia have. Even the western mainstream media narrative has already started to shift as it is becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine is completley outgunned and getting battered in the East.  Ukraine will lose Donbas, most and perhaps all of its South Coast and probably Kharkiv and even more eventually. The idea that Ukraine will completely drive the Russians out and will take back all the territory they have already lost and will continue to lose  is a pipe dream. Defending is one thing but taking back territory when you are outgunned and the enemy has air superiority is something completely different. What happened to the great Kherson counter offensive?

Ukraine are by their own admission taking very heavy casualties in Donbas which is where their best troops are. What will the morale of Ukrainian troops be like when Russia has taken Donbas and have wiped out a significant portion of Ukraine's best troops in the process?  This is going to get worse and worse for Ukraine unfortunately. The longer it takes for Ukraine to make concessions the more territory they will lose.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Arj Guy