Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

28 minutes ago, blandy said:

You might be correct about the IRIS-T, but the MLRS my suspicion is you’re wrong. MLRS is US, therefore ITAR controlled. We know that Biden has been holding back on providing MLRS to Ukraine, so it is highly unlikely an ITAR license would have been granted by the US for Germany to export their MLRSs to Ukraine until Biden just this last couple of days said the US was now willing to send the kit to Ukraine.

ITAR is a rigorously enforced system of arms control/protectionism whereby the US government rigidly controls any US owned/designed military kit and property and information. That obviously applies to the Lockheed Martin MLRS.

And it's forcing customers away.  We've just signed an agreement with Japan to jointly develop technology for our Tempest fighter and their new fighter.  They had pretty much signed on the dotted line with LM/USA but changed their mind due to US control of intellectual property. 

I can see more of this if The US persist.  There's going to be a big uptick in defence spending globally so hopefully The UK can get a good slice of the Pie.  There is also going to be a big push on exporting our new Frigates.   We used to do a lot of this stuff but it's tailed off a lot lately.  Seems we're trying to get back out there.  If we can export big capital equipment it lowers the overall cost for our own stuff too. 

Edited June 2, 2022 by sidcow

[bickster]

8 minutes ago, sidcow said:

We used to do a lot of this stuff but it's tailed off a lot lately.

Might have something to do with one of the salesmen being a world famous sweaty nonce

[magnkarl]

This might just be Ukraine trying to explain why they've lost part of Severodonetsk, but there might be some slight validity to it. Arestovic (Zelensky advisor) might just be using the chance to spread some propaganda.

“They dragged Russian troops into a trap in Severodonetsk”: Arestovich revealed the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Quote

“I recently spoke here about the enemy’s increased operational and tactical skills – the Russian troops. And now – watch your hands. We dragged the Russian troops into a trap in Severodonetsk, pretending to” surrender “the city,” he wrote.

According to Arestovich, now the Russian command is in shock. The Russians reported about the “capture” of Severodonetsk, and now they have received a tough counterattack from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “The defenders of Ukraine are now liquidating Moscow comrades,” the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office noted, even though the occupiers have superiority in aviation and artillery.

“Our troops show incredible courage, and the commanders are tactical talents. There are in a very tough battle. The Russian command is now throwing all available forces to hold (note, not to capture – to hold!) Severodonetsk. Ours are now tearing the enemy like lions, despite his fire superiority,” Arestovich added.

 

[magnkarl]

13 hours ago, blandy said:

You might be correct about the IRIS-T, but the MLRS my suspicion is you’re wrong. MLRS is US, therefore ITAR controlled. We know that Biden has been holding back on providing MLRS to Ukraine, so it is highly unlikely an ITAR license would have been granted by the US for Germany to export their MLRSs to Ukraine until Biden just this last couple of days said the US was now willing to send the kit to Ukraine.

ITAR is a rigorously enforced system of arms control/protectionism whereby the US government rigidly controls any US owned/designed military kit and property and information. That obviously applies to the Lockheed Martin MLRS.

Agreed, though I don't suspect Germany will deliver these weapons anyway. They'll "figure out" that they don't have the ammo, blame Switzerland, puncture the tires and claim they can't get new ones or whatever. Scholz is being dragged kicking and screaming into delivering this by his own Parliament.

The 'there's no ammo' argument is fairly rich when most NATO countries use the same standard mm shells\rockets, by the way. The PzH2000 which they've been so extremely slow to deliver due to 'ammo' or whatever, uses shells and ammunition already delivered by Holland amongst others.

Edited June 3, 2022 by magnkarl

[theunderstudy]

14 hours ago, blandy said:

You might be correct about the IRIS-T, but the MLRS my suspicion is you’re wrong. MLRS is US, therefore ITAR controlled. We know that Biden has been holding back on providing MLRS to Ukraine, so it is highly unlikely an ITAR license would have been granted by the US for Germany to export their MLRSs to Ukraine until Biden just this last couple of days said the US was now willing to send the kit to Ukraine.

ITAR is a rigorously enforced system of arms control/protectionism whereby the US government rigidly controls any US owned/designed military kit and property and information. That obviously applies to the Lockheed Martin MLRS.

Ahhh good old ITAR and EAR. Case in point is the F-16 Falcons (LM) which have been flogged all over Europe amd the world to various countries but if the USA were resistant then none of these users could offer them up to Ukraine. On that particular plane Japan have their own variant, the Mitsubishi F-2 which I believe was a joint development gig with LM.

The US spends so much on defence but also sells so much stuff to foreign nations... all regulated to the gills. 

[chrisp65]

I’m not a war expert. I’m certainly not an expert on war tactics.

But this constant narrative of losing ground to gain the opportunity to deplete and defeat? Zelensky has said in the last few days that Putin currently has about 20% of Ukraine. How much more will Putin take before Ukraine can declare complete victory?

I think adults can be told both good news and bad news. Sometimes, bad news might even spur allies in to actually getting their shit together and helping more. Rather than the relentlessly over glossed news that we damaged Putin knuckles with our cleverly positioned chin.

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Zelensky has said in the last few days that Putin currently has about 20% of Ukraine.

Not really related to your post Chris, it just triggered me as something that I realised,

The 20% figure quoted by Zelensky includes Crimea and the areas of Donbas and Luhansk that Russia has effectively controlled since 2014

I realise why Zelensky said it because it's basically true, he's trying to pressure for more and more weapons and it sends a message on the home front too. I completely understand this

But it also has a different effect to the more casual observer of the situation. It sounds like Russia are making much bigger gains than they actually are, When the reality is that the front line has basically stalled for weeks and the Russians control much less of Ukraine than they did a few months ago. There's been a complete retreat in the western Belarusian axis, The area around Kharkiv and Sumy has largely been liberated. Russia is in slow retreat around Kherson. Apart from the middle bit of the eastern front centrered around Severodonetsk the Russians are not advancing at all. The Russian effort is all in the middle and they are taking heavy losses for every KM they take and Ukraine is still capable of outflanking Russian advances and taking gains back like they have been around Popansa

Anyway, my point is, the 20% figure can be a bit misleading as to the state of play

[magnkarl]

11 minutes ago, bickster said:

Not really related to your post Chris, it just triggered me as something that I realised,

The 20% figure quoted by Zelensky includes Crimea and the areas of Donbas and Luhansk that Russia has effectively controlled since 2014

I realise why Zelensky said it because it's basically true, he's trying to pressure for more and more weapons and it sends a message on the home front too. I completely understand this

But it also has a different effect to the more casual observer of the situation. It sounds like Russia are making much bigger gains than they actually are, When the reality is that the front line has basically stalled for weeks and the Russians control much less of Ukraine than they did a few months ago. There's been a complete retreat in the western Belarusian axis, The area around Kharkiv and Sumy has largely been liberated. Russia is in slow retreat around Kherson. Apart from the middle bit of the eastern front centrered around Severodonetsk the Russians are not advancing at all. The Russian effort is all in the middle and they are taking heavy losses for every KM they take and Ukraine is still capable of outflanking Russian advances and taking gains back like they have been around Popansa

Anyway, my point is, the 20% figure can be a bit misleading as to the state of play

As stated before by many I guess the information missing is how many Ukrainian soldiers are actually falling in the defensive maneuvering they're doing. In reality it looks like Ukraine are playing the situation perfectly, holding where they can and retreating where they need to. The issue for Russia in Severodonetsk seems to be that Lysychansk is on a ridge where Ukraine have placed much of their US/Western delivered artillery. Ukraine also seems to have been very successful at evacuating the city, meaning that they're much more free to let lose on any Russian advances than they were in i.e Mariupol. The deep state map seems to indicate that Ukraine has recaptured about 25% of the city centre overnight, and considering that Russia's has allocated something like 50 BTG's to this area I assume they've lost an intolerable amount of soldiers to Ukranian artillery.

I do wonder who's in Ukraine's general's ears about this, the tactics are a far cry from what Ukraine has done in the area since 2014.

[chrisp65]

47 minutes ago, bickster said:

Not really related to your post Chris, it just triggered me as something that I realised,

The 20% figure quoted by Zelensky includes Crimea and the areas of Donbas and Luhansk that Russia has effectively controlled since 2014

I realise why Zelensky said it because it's basically true, he's trying to pressure for more and more weapons and it sends a message on the home front too. I completely understand this

But it also has a different effect to the more casual observer of the situation. It sounds like Russia are making much bigger gains than they actually are, When the reality is that the front line has basically stalled for weeks and the Russians control much less of Ukraine than they did a few months ago. There's been a complete retreat in the western Belarusian axis, The area around Kharkiv and Sumy has largely been liberated. Russia is in slow retreat around Kherson. Apart from the middle bit of the eastern front centrered around Severodonetsk the Russians are not advancing at all. The Russian effort is all in the middle and they are taking heavy losses for every KM they take and Ukraine is still capable of outflanking Russian advances and taking gains back like they have been around Popansa

Anyway, my point is, the 20% figure can be a bit misleading as to the state of play

 

Yeah, I think that 20% figure and the recent announcement on troop losses, together with the news on grain harvests and grain storage capacity and the reality of the economic devastation is a deliberate counter to the constant LibDem style ‘winning here’ jolly narrative of people thinking the Ukraine is getting rich on scrap metal.

There is a need for more weapons, more assistance, more pressure. That has a direct cost in our personal domestic budgets. More help for Ukraine at our personal expense is never going to happen if all of Europe and the U.S. are getting a message that everything is going to plan and we’re days from Russian surrender and retreat.

’winning here’ is not a grown up message. ‘Losing here’ is way too negative to accurately describe the situation. This is why we need adults in charge, not custard filled opportunists, and not people that would send an even handedly worded petition.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

This is why we need adults in charge, not custard filled opportunists, and not people that would send an even handedly worded petition.

 

[Panto_Villan]

10 hours ago, magnkarl said:

As stated before by many I guess the information missing is how many Ukrainian soldiers are actually falling in the defensive maneuvering they're doing. In reality it looks like Ukraine are playing the situation perfectly, holding where they can and retreating where they need to. The issue for Russia in Severodonetsk seems to be that Lysychansk is on a ridge where Ukraine have placed much of their US/Western delivered artillery. Ukraine also seems to have been very successful at evacuating the city, meaning that they're much more free to let lose on any Russian advances than they were in i.e Mariupol. The deep state map seems to indicate that Ukraine has recaptured about 25% of the city centre overnight, and considering that Russia's has allocated something like 50 BTG's to this area I assume they've lost an intolerable amount of soldiers to Ukranian artillery.

I do wonder who's in Ukraine's general's ears about this, the tactics are a far cry from what Ukraine has done in the area since 2014.

It seems like the Ukrainians have taken some quite serious losses in the past few days - the 100 KIA and 500 wounded per day quoted by Zelensky is going to deplete your forces pretty fast - but it does seem like evidence is coming in to support the rumours of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive into the city you mentioned earlier. And if that is true then the Russians must be close to breaking point (locally, at least) and so their losses must be much higher than that. A few recent rumours on Twitter say that the Chechens in particular took heavy losses but I guess it'll take time for the situation to become clear.

It's interesting that the daily estimates from the Ukrainian side about Russian casualties are only ~100 KIA a day right now, though. That to me either implies a lag in reporting or that the losses being taken are being borne almost entirely by the DNR / LNR forces, and maybe Wagner / Chechens if Ukraine classifies them differently and so they aren't included in the figures.

That said, I'm also not sure it's the artillery doing the killing at the moment - I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians are choosing to fight in the city specifically because there's plenty of cover to protect them from the massed Russian artillery, negating the main advantage the Russians have and letting the Ukrainians inflict casualties the old fashioned way.

[magnkarl]

10 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

Yeah, I think that 20% figure and the recent announcement on troop losses, together with the news on grain harvests and grain storage capacity and the reality of the economic devastation is a deliberate counter to the constant LibDem style ‘winning here’ jolly narrative of people thinking the Ukraine is getting rich on scrap metal.

There is a need for more weapons, more assistance, more pressure. That has a direct cost in our personal domestic budgets. More help for Ukraine at our personal expense is never going to happen if all of Europe and the U.S. are getting a message that everything is going to plan and we’re days from Russian surrender and retreat.

’winning here’ is not a grown up message. ‘Losing here’ is way too negative to accurately describe the situation. This is why we need adults in charge, not custard filled opportunists, and not people that would send an even handedly worded petition.

What!? Are you saying that a petition cosigned with Chomsky, Owen Jones, Galloway and Corbyn, strongly asking Putin to stand down, isn't doing the trick?! (I'm not sure Galloway would actually sign it, it'd piss off his handlers too much.)

[magnkarl]

8 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

It seems like the Ukrainians have taken some quite serious losses in the past few days - the 100 KIA and 500 wounded per day quoted by Zelensky is going to deplete your forces pretty fast - but it does seem like evidence is coming in to support the rumours of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive into the city you mentioned earlier. And if that is true then the Russians must be close to breaking point (locally, at least) and so their losses must be much higher than that. A few recent rumours on Twitter say that the Chechens in particular took heavy losses but I guess it'll take time for the situation to become clear.

It's interesting that the daily estimates from the Ukrainian side about Russian casualties are only ~100 KIA a day right now, though. That to me either implies a lag in reporting or that the losses being taken are being borne almost entirely by the DNR / LNR forces, and maybe Wagner / Chechens if Ukraine classifies them differently and so they aren't included in the figures.

That said, I'm also not sure it's the artillery doing the killing at the moment - I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians are choosing to fight in the city specifically because there's plenty of cover to protect them from the massed Russian artillery, negating the main advantage the Russians have and letting the Ukrainians inflict casualties the old fashioned way.

Who knows, it's probably a combined arms effort. Pictures on DW earlier showed a whole line of M777's on a ridge around Lysychansk somewhere definitely doing work. DW also showed some fairly horrifying pictures of dead Russian elite paratroopers along their airborne IFV's north of Kharkiv where I don't think many Russians got out..

[Panto_Villan]

11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Who knows, it's probably a combined arms effort. Pictures on DW earlier showed a whole line of M777's on a ridge around Lysychansk somewhere definitely doing work. DW also showed some fairly horrifying pictures of dead Russian elite paratroopers along their airborne IFV's north of Kharkiv where I don't think many Russians got out..

Yeah, quite possibly. Just speculation on my part really. Haven’t seen the photos from DW because the sources I follow are pretty thorough about scrubbing anything involving dead bodies out, but it’s always good to hear the Russians are taking losses!

[magnkarl]

Seems it didn’t take Ukraine long to learn to use the NATO counter battery fire tech either. Here’s a good example, with an added bonus that they’re responding to a TOS fired while Russian state tv is trying to show how amazing it is.

 

 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

It seems like the Ukrainians have taken some quite serious losses in the past few days - the 100 KIA and 500 wounded per day quoted by Zelensky is going to deplete your forces pretty fast - but it does seem like evidence is coming in to support the rumours of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive into the city you mentioned earlier. And if that is true then the Russians must be close to breaking point (locally, at least) and so their losses must be much higher than that. A few recent rumours on Twitter say that the Chechens in particular took heavy losses but I guess it'll take time for the situation to become clear.

It's interesting that the daily estimates from the Ukrainian side about Russian casualties are only ~100 KIA a day right now, though. That to me either implies a lag in reporting or that the losses being taken are being borne almost entirely by the DNR / LNR forces, and maybe Wagner / Chechens if Ukraine classifies them differently and so they aren't included in the figures.

That said, I'm also not sure it's the artillery doing the killing at the moment - I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians are choosing to fight in the city specifically because there's plenty of cover to protect them from the massed Russian artillery, negating the main advantage the Russians have and letting the Ukrainians inflict casualties the old fashioned way.

The LNR / DNR forces are mainly around Kherson, so they are taking losses right now as the Ukrainian forces advance there

Its also interesting that the Chechens took a good whalloping because until recently they were the enforces behind the lines making sure people got shot if the retreated / refused to fight but there have been rumours that Khadyrov isn’t Putin’s favourite warlord any more

The main body of Russia. forces are in that middle section in Severodonetsk. They’ve chucked everything they have spare at that thrust and are currently going slowly backwards

[LondonLax]

6 hours ago, bickster said:

The LNR / DNR forces are mainly around Kherson, so they are taking losses right now as the Ukrainian forces advance there

Its also interesting that the Chechens took a good whalloping because until recently they were the enforces behind the lines making sure people got shot if the retreated / refused to fight but there have been rumours that Khadyrov isn’t Putin’s favourite warlord any more

The main body of Russia. forces are in that middle section in Severodonetsk. They’ve chucked everything they have spare at that thrust and are currently going slowly backwards

Where is that coming from? According to U.K. intelligence the Russians are having success in Severodonetsk and will complete their takeover of the Luhansk region in the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Seems it didn’t take Ukraine long to learn to use the NATO counter battery fire tech either.

 

 

I doubt it's been given to Ukraine but the modern counter battery tech is amazing. US claim to be able to track the source of a shell and return fire before the incoming shell lands.  

[desensitized43]

20 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

I’m not a war expert. I’m certainly not an expert on war tactics.

But this constant narrative of losing ground to gain the opportunity to deplete and defeat? Zelensky has said in the last few days that Putin currently has about 20% of Ukraine. How much more will Putin take before Ukraine can declare complete victory?

I think adults can be told both good news and bad news. Sometimes, bad news might even spur allies in to actually getting their shit together and helping more. Rather than the relentlessly over glossed news that we damaged Putin knuckles with our cleverly positioned chin.

It is a really common and effective military tactic that’s been in use since (I believe) the First World War called “defence in depth”.

Traditional military doctrine would have you position all of your men and equipment at the front line in order to cede no ground at all, but if you allow them to advance into a more heavily defended area you’ll find them off balance, as they advance beyond the range of their support. You can then envelope and they take far more casualties while you take less. It’s simplistic to call what they’re doing defeat. They’re ceding territory in exchange for more Russian bodies.

It’s true that there will come a time you can’t cede anymore ground but the objective is to reach a point where putin can’t take any more Russians coming back in bags before that happens.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Where is that coming from? According to U.K. intelligence the Russians are having success in Severodonetsk and will complete their takeover of the Luhansk region in the next couple of weeks. 

 

It’s pretty much across the board wherever you look. It was announced by Arestovic over a day ago, he claimed that Ukraine was withdrawing from the city which apparently the Russians believed.Ukraine then took back a good chunk of the city. 

British Intelligence pronouncements make the BBC seem like breaking news, they are somewhat delayed with reality and generally tell you nothing you didn’t already know. They were still talking about the Kyiv withdrawal a couple of days ago