Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[LxYoungAVFC]

Russia seems reluctant to use it's more modern ground equipment and heavy tanks. So far I have only seen a few videos of T72s, no T80s, T90s - let alone Armatas.

Most IFVs  look like older BMP-1s and from what I've seen most APCs are older BTR variants.

Seems like at the moment not much heavy Artillery is being used, with most of the shelling coming from TOS-1 and Grad systems.

If the Blitzkrieg tactics fail to force a rapid surrender, we may see more modern equipment and heavy artillery enter the war, which would be scary for any civilians and ukranian resistance in urban areas.

If Russia continues to commit to blitzkrieg, I can see the following happen, based on movements so far:

1. Sumy will be easily surrounded as russians are pushing south on both sides.

2. Chernihiv will be surrounded by soldiers pushing south from Belarus and troops cutting through from north of Sumy in the east.

3. Mariupol will be surrounded by separatists in the east and north, the troops who invaded via Crimea will cut off the supply lines from the west.

4. Resistance in Kharkiv is strong so far, which is scary, as carpet bombing/heavy artillery may be the only way to force retreat and capture the city.

5. Once Chernihiv is cut off, Russians will push south and attack Kyiv from both sides of the Dnieper river - defenders will be fighting on two fronts.

I sincerely hope none of this happens and we somehow see a peaceful outcome sooner than later.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by LxYoungAVFC

[foreveryoung]

5 hours ago, Awol said:

Yes, this was worst case scenario as his reasoning for the nuclear signaling yesterday. If he starts plastering cities with rocket artillery western public opinion will get fired up very fast. 

It looks likely that Belarusian forces are going to be introduced and I’d guess they’ll be in the west of Ukraine to try and cut the supply lines bringing munitions etc from Europe.

If they do there’s going to be some interesting chats in NATO about destroying those formations and pretending it was the Ukrainians.

This is already happening isn't it. I doubt they are controlling them TB2's.

[LondonLax]

31 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

whoopsie, if true...

Turns out it was one Israeli National shot dead outside Kiev. Not ‘a strike on a convoy’.

[Awol]

13 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

This is already happening isn't it. I doubt they are controlling them TB2's.

The Ukrainians are controlling their own TB2’s, lots of videos of control room celebrations as they strike Russian convoys. If NATO was involved then the 5km traffic jam of Russian vehicles north of Kyiv would be scrap.

[bannedfromHandV]

Is there now a chance for ‘the west’ to achieve far more than initially thought?

Could real change be effected in Russia, like massive reform, perhaps even actual democracy and an opportunity to bring Russia into the modern world? No more wide scale secrecy, no more state sponsored assassinations, no more Russia vs the world.

This is a PR nightmare for them, they can’t suppress information as they did during the soviet era, the people there will know or at least come to know what’s actually going on and Putin’s facade may dwindle rapidly.

[TheAuthority]

1 hour ago, bannedfromHandV said:

and Smirnoff 

Sorry to burst your bubble but Smirnoff is made in Illinois 

Does have a kind of Russian sounding name though!

[sharkyvilla]

7 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Is there now a chance for ‘the west’ to achieve far more than initially thought?

Could real change be effected in Russia, like massive reform, perhaps even actual democracy and an opportunity to bring Russia into the modern world? No more wide scale secrecy, no more state sponsored assassinations, no more Russia vs the world.

This is a PR nightmare for them, they can’t suppress information as they did during the soviet era, the people there will know or at least come to know what’s actually going on and Putin’s facade may dwindle rapidly.

I wondered a day or two whether this could have a similar effect to omicron on covid, where it seems shit scary to start with but if it results in Putin getting deposed and democracy in Russia, then the long term benefits could be huge and sort out so many problems in the world.  Obviously still a long way away from that at the moment and Putin could still choose to cause a nuclear war that wipes out millions.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, bannedfromHandV said:

and Smirnoff 

I boycotted Chinese food after covid , now after Ukraine I’m boycotting Russian Vodka

Please don’t do anything wrong Colombia 

[avfc1982am]

2 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Is there now a chance for ‘the west’ to achieve far more than initially thought?

Could real change be effected in Russia, like massive reform, perhaps even actual democracy and an opportunity to bring Russia into the modern world? No more wide scale secrecy, no more state sponsored assassinations, no more Russia vs the world.

This is a PR nightmare for them, they can’t suppress information as they did during the soviet era, the people there will know or at least come to know what’s actually going on and Putin’s facade may dwindle rapidly.

I think we are a little way away from that. No way is Putin not going to try and now take a large chunk of the Ukraine. To encompass the north, east and south of the country he is definitely looking at a land grab. The problem is he has isolated his Russia internationally. Whatever happens I feel the Ukraine is going to be in a long drawn out war with cities occupied in a stand off unless they can drag things into the trenches. 

If I was the western governments I would try to create a corridor into western Ukraine, get as many non military soldiers()  into Kyiv armed to the teeth, and allow the Ukrainian forces to try and break out and recover ground. Whilst importing as much aid and tech weaponry as possible. Otherwise I fear millions could be displaced and many thousands die. 

[Delphinho123]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I boycotted Chinese food after covid , now after Ukraine I’m boycotting Russian Vodka

Please don’t do anything wrong Colombia 

Classic tony.

[TheAuthority]

As per our earlier conversation @HanoiVillan looks like your were right 

Quote

Over the past few days we've reported that many Ukrainians are prepared to bear arms to defend their country, one such person is Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, who is sheltering in a basement with her family.

She told Woman's Hour on BBC Radio 4 how she had been trained to use an assault rifle to defend herself and her country.

Lesia revealed that she'd had a manicure but had to cut off all her nails in order to use the guns that she owns.

She said there were now tens of thousands of women in Ukraine prepared to "fight for their lives".

Woman's Hour

Edited February 28, 2022 by TheAuthority
Link Added

[Delphinho123]

16 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Is there now a chance for ‘the west’ to achieve far more than initially thought?

Could real change be effected in Russia, like massive reform, perhaps even actual democracy and an opportunity to bring Russia into the modern world? No more wide scale secrecy, no more state sponsored assassinations, no more Russia vs the world.

This is a PR nightmare for them, they can’t suppress information as they did during the soviet era, the people there will know or at least come to know what’s actually going on and Putin’s facade may dwindle rapidly.

I hear you, but beware of an animal backed into a corner with nowhere to go. 

If Putin is going down, he’ll take as many lives as he can before he does. 

Hitler only took cyanide because he didn’t have any nuclear weapons. He’d have wiped out the entire of Europe if he could. 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I boycotted Chinese food after covid , now after Ukraine I’m boycotting Russian Vodka

Please don’t do anything wrong Colombia 

You were going to buy Hippopotamus?

[bickster]

Ukraine signs document to apply for EU membership

 

[Delphinho123]

Just now, bickster said:

Ukraine signs document to apply for EU membership

 

Christ. 

I mean, that’s great, but I don’t think Poutine will be happy..

[sidcow]

7 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Christ. 

I mean, that’s great, but I don’t think Poutine will be happy..

It's an application, or more probably it's a random piece of paper on a table. 

They're not joining the EU now. 

[foreveryoung]

Talking about the West, has Biden got out of bed yet. I'd much rather have a Barack Obama type handling these situations. 

Sounds like truss won't be on Putin's Christmas card list any time soon. She may get some Salisbury perfume though, if she don't stop showing off about nuking his finances.

[HanoiVillan]

Less than 12 months after I stopped following all of the Twitter accounts from people called things like 'Dr Eric Expertsson PHD #wearamask #savethenhs', I've now ended up filling my feed with dubious guys with names like 'UKDEFINTEL' who speak exclusively in acronyms.

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, LxYoungAVFC said:

Russia seems reluctant to use it's more modern ground equipment and heavy tanks. So far I have only seen a few videos of T72s, no T80s, T90s - let alone Armatas.

Most IFVs  look like older BMP-1s and from what I've seen most APCs are older BTR variants.

Seems like at the moment not much heavy Artillery is being used, with most of the shelling coming from TOS-1 and Grad systems.

If the Blitzkrieg tactics fail to force a rapid surrender, we may see more modern equipment and heavy artillery enter the war, which would be scary for any civilians and ukranian resistance in urban areas.

If Russia continues to commit to blitzkrieg, I can see the following happen, based on movements so far:

1. Sumy will be easily surrounded as russians are pushing south on both sides.

2. Chernihiv will be surrounded by soldiers pushing south from Belarus and troops cutting through from north of Sumy in the east.

3. Mariupol will be surrounded by separatists in the east and north, the troops who invaded via Crimea will cut off the supply lines from the west.

4. Resistance in Kharkiv is strong so far, which is scary, as carpet bombing/heavy artillery may be the only way to force retreat and capture the city.

5. Once Chernihiv is cut off, Russians will push south and attack Kyiv from both sides of the Dnieper river - defenders will be fighting on two fronts.

I sincerely hope none of this happens and we somehow see a peaceful outcome sooner than later.

 

Some ‘experts’ seem to think that the Russian high end weapons just aren’t as numerous as previously thought. Has Putin’s kleptocracy contributed to the army being far more undersupplied and underfunded than previously thought, you think?

[BleedClaretAndBlue]